Between June 13 and 24, Israel and the United States launched massive air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. At the end of the military operation, Israel, Iran and the United States all claimed to have won the conflict. This disagreement reflects not only the differences in the parties' understanding of the consequences of this conflict, but also the intensity of the game surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue. So, how should we understand this military conflict around the Iranian nuclear issue? In the author's view, perhaps there are no real winners in this conflict, except for a very few politicians who have benefited from it.
First, while Israel has achieved impressive success in intelligence and tactical operations, it has also exposed its strategic vulnerabilities in several ways. Since the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel has established a myth of invincibility in the Middle East. Before the Hamas attack in October 2023, Israel had never suffered a major military setback on its homeland. However, Israel's huge military advantages, including the fact that it is the only nuclear state in the Middle East, which enjoys the unconditional support from US, have failed to prevent the military offensive of Hamas and Iran, let alone to deter Iran from direct long-range military retaliation against it.Through a combination of ballistic missiles and drones, Iran has successfully penetrated Israel's air defense system, demonstrating Israel's strategic vulnerability to the rest of the world. No matter how the Netanyahu brags about the success of its military operations, Israel cannot hide the huge risks posed by this strategic vulnerability, which it has to face in the coming years.
Secondly, although Iran suffered certain losses and exposed many problems in the conflict, it also made a number of important gains. Such gains are reflected in at least four dimensions:i). Iran has demonstrated its military capability and political resolve to strike Israel remotely. Compared to Israel, Iran has very limited access to external military support. In addition to the political support provided by a few countries or international organizations, decades of sanctions have made it difficult for Iran not only to obtain foreign exchange through energy exports, but also to obtain effective external military assistance. However, Iran has demonstrated its military capability to conduct long-range strikes against Israel and poses a real danger to the Israeli homeland.ii). Through the strategic restraint and effective political operations, Iran not only successfully prevented the conflict from escalating into a confrontation between Iran and the US, but also saw clearly the fundamental differences and strategic bottom line between the United States and Israel.iii). Iran has demonstrated strong economic, political and strategic resilience in the conflict. In other words, Iran still has the industrial and military capabilities that many other regional countries do not have, and its potential and foundation as a major power in the Middle East have not disappeared.iv). Although Iran's nuclear program has been severely damaged, it is far from being completely eradicated, and the nuclear issue is still an important bargaining chip in its hands.
Finally, the United States demonstrated its strong long-range strike capability and its political will to stand up for the security of Israel. However, this military action also exposed the fact that the United States has limited options on the Iranian nuclear issue and is still trying to withdraw from the region strategically. Although the international community may have different assessments of the effects of Israel and US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities based on different intelligence resources, assessment methods, and political positions, etc. However, a basic consensus is that the bombing has caused great damage to Iran's nuclear facilities, it is far from completely eliminating Iran's nuclear capabilities. On the contrary, these military actions have further undermined Iran's trust in the United States and made it more difficult for people to assess Iran's nuclear intentions. The military action has not enhanced the United States' initiative on the Iranian nuclear issue, nor has it increased Iran's willingness to negotiate with US.
For the Trump administration, there are only two ways to eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities: One is regime change in Iran and hence to eliminate its political will to pursue nuclear weapons, but this is not a practical option; the other is the repetitive bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, which prevents it from restoring its nuclear facilities. Given Iran's air defense system partially paralyzed, it is not ruled out that Trump will continue to launch another surprise attack. However, since Iran's nuclear facilities are often located underground or in mountains, the effectiveness of the US military adventure is still questionable. Once Iran rebuilds its air defense system and completes the reorganization of its military intelligence department, the risks of such military adventures can also be imagined.
Except for a very few politicians who used this as a gimmick to seek political gains, there is no real winner in this military conflict over the Iranian nuclear issue. On the contrary, the damage it has caused to the international community is far beyond the imagination of many people. First, it has seriously undermined the authority of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. The Iranian nuclear facilities attacked this time are all under the supervision of the IAEA, which is a legal agency authorized to supervise nuclear facilities under the NPT. The IAEA has never stated that Iran has a nuclear weapons program or has made the decision to develop nuclear weapons. Second, it has set an extremely bad precedent in terms of compliance with the post-war international order. Israel and the United States have ignored the role of diplomatic means, unilaterally torn up international agreements, and at the same time recklessly bombed another sovereign country. Such unscrupulous behavior may accelerate the chaos of the international order and return the surviving international community to the jungle era. Last but not least, it has caused great damage to the process of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. The trust deficit has always been the biggest obstacle in the nuclear negotiations. The US military action will undoubtedly make Iranians more suspicious of the US's sincerity. What is even more frightening is that if national security is not effectively guaranteed and its sincerity in negotiations is not respected, the Iranians may reassess its strategic demands in the national security and nuclear fields, which will bring new and unpredictable challenges to the whole world.
