当今世界美中俄一超两强鼎立，构成世界上最重要的一组三边关系，可谓“大三角”关系。虽然三边关系的各边一向有差别，但总体上处于相对稳定状态。美对华经济关系远重于美俄，而在地缘战略领域，美把中俄都视为主要竞争对手和美国称霸全球的主要障碍，因而严加遏制和打压。美国是中俄两国国家安全和核心利益的主要威胁，这促使中俄在战略上走近，强化与深化战略合作与协调。虽然中俄不结盟，但客观上形成了两强合力牵制独超的态势。这有利于促进这个大三角的战略力量趋于均衡，也是促使独超不致于对中俄和世界过为己甚的一个重要因素。

特朗普当政后，美中俄关系生变。他从“亲俄”走向“亲俄遏中”，试图打破此前三者之间的微妙平衡。随着特朗普自以为执政地位愈益巩固，其亲俄立场也愈益直白，7月中旬，终于实现了酝酿已久的两国元首第一次正式会晤与“一对一”密谈。特朗普称此次会晤“取得了突破”，“揭开了美俄关系新的一页”。虽然对其人其说可以不必在意，但此会确是取得了一定效果，双方安全与外交团队会后即酝酿落实两元首达成的协议。特朗普与普京还相继发出了互访邀请。日前，特政府迫于国内政治压力和担心“通俄门”发酵，重提“毒气门”事件，对俄罗斯实行新一轮罕见的严厉制裁，但同时他又致函普京，重申同俄交好，美国国务卿也致电俄外长，表示美国愿与俄罗斯改善关系。这实际上是特朗普向普京表示，美国对俄新制裁于他是被迫无奈，他内心是对俄亲好的，希望普京谅解，以缓息俄罗斯的“冲冠之怒”。

特朗普对中国却是另一付面孔。在上台第一年，他佯装对华友好，从中国获取了巨额经济实利。但“人心不足蛇吞象”，为了猎取更大更多利益，特朗普第二年即大变脸，改用强硬手段对中国进行讹诈。经济上，他恶性升级对华贸易战，除实施对500亿美元中国商品加征高额关税，提出对2000亿美元中国商品加征关税清单，还骇人听闻地扬言要对总计5000亿美元中国商品加征关税，不惜使中美经贸关系倒退到建交前。安全战略上，他公然把“一中原则”作为他要挑战的“政治正确”，从立法到行动上提升与台湾关系，频踏中国战略底线，不惜动摇中美关系的政治基础。在文教领域，他竟然指责中国留美学生“几乎都是间谍”。这些使中美关系出现建交以来前所未有的紧张和危机。

特朗普亲俄排华其来有自。现在美国由对华成见很深的右翼保守势力盘踞政坛，他们容不得中国快速复兴，把中国看成挑战美国霸权地位的头号对手，予以重点防范遏制。在这种政治气候下，特朗普作为极端保守主义者与富豪民粹主义者，打着“让美国再度强大”的旗号上台，把对华超强硬作为猎取名利的捷径，走上了极端排华遏华之路。

特朗普亲俄则主要出于个人感恩情结和应对“通俄门”的需要。俄罗斯干预美国大选，支持特朗普，对他赢得大选起了不可或缺的关键作用，这是美国政坛和媒体的共识。特朗普对此更是心知肚明，且思知恩图报。尤其是他在“通俄门”上亟需俄罗斯配合，希望俄罗斯的态度同他始终保持一致，否则他难以过关。这可能是他如此亲俄的深层原因。

特朗普“亲俄”除了为应对“通俄门”，还为了在大三角关系中集中精力对付中国。他“亲俄遏中”含拉俄遏中之意，更有甚者，在与普京的会谈中，他提出的议题之一是所谓“中国问题”，明显表露其“联俄制中”之心。中国是当代国际关系中一个主要积极因素，这是国际社会的共识。中国从来没有成为什么“问题”。特朗普今年以来在各种国际场合恶毒攻击中国，大肆鼓吹“中国威胁论”，尤其将中国对外经济关系妖魔化，就是用抹黑中国的办法制造所谓“中国问题”。他在同普京会谈时提出“中国问题”，无非是重复这些妄言，以离间中俄关系，在亲密的中俄之间打进一个楔子，并企图拉拢俄罗斯同美国一起共同对付中国。这就揭下了他对中国“友好”的面纱，充分显露其敌视中国和不择手段打压中国的真实思想。

特朗普在美中俄关系中“耍花招”，其如意算盘是根本改变中美俄关系格局，将中俄战略靠拢牵制美国，变为美俄合力制衡中国，以倍増遏华效应。如果不能达到此目的，就退而求其次，争取俄罗斯在大三角关系中保持中立，以便美国专注制华，増强对华的战略压力。但这些只是特朗普的一厢情愿，是注定不能得逞的。其一，特朗普是真心亲俄和要改善美俄关系的，但落花有意流水无情，特朗普的亲俄政策被美国统治集团无情否决。就在特朗普宣称“特普会”取得“伟大”成效之际，美国政府就假借名义宣布对俄罗斯实行新的严厉制裁，使处于历史低谷的美俄关系雪上加霜，一下子把“特普会”取得的“伟大成效”归零。特朗普对改善美俄关系既无能为力，又谈何“联俄制华”。其二，普京虽与特朗普惺惺相惜，私交甚好，但这并不能缓解俄美根本矛盾。美国在战略上对俄罗斯步步进逼，对其国家安全和大国地位形成致命威胁，俄罗斯退无可退，只能坚决反制。双方的战略矛盾是不可调和的。美俄在战略上是对立与争斗，不可能形成合力去对付中国。其三，中国一贯对俄罗斯真诚友好，尊重俄罗斯的核心利益和大国地位，中俄之间没有根本矛盾与利害冲突。双方通过签订睦邻友好合作条约，更成为世代友好永不为敌的好邻居好伙伴好朋友。普京因此把俄中称为“天然的好朋友好伙伴”。现在，中俄业已建立的全面战略协作伙伴关系空前强化与深化，相互关系处于历史最好时期。中俄坚持不结盟而又密切协作的战略关系，是两国根本利益所在，是任何力量都不能离间和动摇的。

特朗普试图挑拨损害中俄关系不会得逞。但中美关系由于特朗普的非理性对华政策而趋于恶化，使双方都受损。不过，中美共同利益与合作需要大于矛盾与纷争的基本格局没有发生根本性改变，维护两国关系稳定发展依然符合两国利益大局，这仍将是美国两党的基本共识。相信在不久以后，双方通过共同努力会克服暂时困难，将中美关系纳回稳定发展的正轨。

The relationship between the US, China, and Russia is the most important trilateral relationship in the world. Despite differences between these countries, their relations are relatively stable overall. The U.S.' economic relationship with China is far more important than that with Russia, but strategically, the U.S. sees both China and Russia as major competitors as well as obstacles to achieving global dominance. Both China and Russia view the U.S. as the primary threat to their national security and core interests, so their strategies have become closely aligned, which has led them to strengthen and deepen their strategic coordination and cooperation. Although China and Russia have not formed an alliance, they have both sought to contain the U.S. This has helped achieve a state of equilibrium between the three strategic forces, and it is an important means of checking U.S. ambitions toward China, Russia and the rest of the world.

After Donald Trump took office, the relationship between the U.S. and China changed. He also shifted from being simply pro-Russia to being pro-Russia and anti-China in an attempt to alter the balance that existed between the three nations. As he settled into his presidency, his pro-Russia stance became increasingly apparent, and a formal one-on-one meeting finally took place between Trump and Vladimir Putin in mid-July this year. Trump commented afterwards that the meeting marked a breakthrough and the beginning of a new chapter in relations. He said that he hoped that they could achieve results and that security and diplomatic staff on both sides would implement the agreements reached by their heads of state. Trump and Putin also exchanged invitations to visit each other's country.Under political pressure at home and worried about the fallout from the Russia investigation, the Trump administration subsequently repeated concerns about Russian involvement in the poisoning in London and imposed a fresh round of sanctions. At the same time, however, Trump sent Putin a letter affirming his friendship with Russia. The U.S. Secretary of State also called the Russian Foreign Minister to express the U.S.' willingness to improve relations with Russia. This was Trump's way of making clear to Putin that he had been forced to impose these new sanctions. Inwardly, Trump is a friend of Russia and is hoping Putin will understand his predicament.

Trump's treatment of China has been very different. During his first year in office, he pretended to be a friend of China in order to obtain considerable economic advantages. Nevertheless, having been given an inch he wished to take a mile and sought greater advantages. In his second year in office, his attitude changed, and he adopted a tough stance in an attempt to blackmail China. He then started a vicious trade war, which included imposing high tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports and proposing tariffs on a further $200 billion of Chinese goods. He has even shockingly threatened to impose tariffs on a total of $500 billion of Chinese imports, which would set China-U.S. relations back to the state they were in prior to establishing diplomatic relations. In terms of his security strategy toward China, Trump openly considers the One-China Policy to be mere political correctness and believes it should be challenged, and he has taken steps to improve relations with Taiwan through legislation and other actions. Both of these things have threatened to cross strategic red lines and shaken the political foundations of China-U.S. relations. In the areas of culture and education, Trump has gone so far as to accuse nearly all Chinese students in the U.S. of being spies. These actions and accusations have left China-U.S. relations at their lowest level since the two countries established diplomatic relations.

There is a reason for Trump's pro-Russia, anti-China bias. Right-wing conservative forces with deep prejudices against China currently hold sway in U.S. politics. These forces do not want China to rejuvenate quickly. They see China as the foremost challenger to U.S. hegemony, so their focus is on prevention and containment. Amid this political climate, Trump, an ultra-conservative business magnate and populist who took office on the back of a promise to make America great again, adopted an ultra-tough stance toward China to make a name for himself and has proceeded to adopt extreme policies aimed at excluding and containing China.

Trump's pro-Russia leaning is mainly due to personal gratitude towards Russia. People in political circles and the media in the U.S. believe that Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election and support for Trump were instrumental in him winning the election. Trump is even more aware of Russia's role and wishes to show his gratitude. Moreover, he needs Russia to stay quiet on links with his administration and hopes that Russia's attitude remains consistent with his own; otherwise, he will find himself in difficulty. This may be the underlying reason for his pro-Russia stance.

In addition to his administration's links with Russia, Trump's pro-Russia stance is due to his wish to concentrate his energy on dealing with China. His pro-Russia, anti-China approach is also an attempt to make Russia more anti-China. Indeed, during his meeting with Putin, Trump raised the so-called “China problem,” which clearly revealed his intention to unite with Russia to contain China. The consensus of the international community is that China is a major positive player in contemporary international relations. China has never been a problem, but this has not stopped Trump from launching vicious attacks against China at various international events this year. He has supported the China threat theory, especially the demonization of China's economic relations with other countries, which is aimed at discrediting China and creating a “China problem.” His discussion with Putin about the “China problem” was simply repeating these accusations in order to drive a wedge between Russia and China as well as persuade Russia to side with the U.S. against China. This removed the veil of friendship and revealed Trump's true feelings of hostility toward China as well as the unscrupulous methods he is willing to employ to suppress it.

The wishful thinking behind the games Trump is playing is to change the dynamic between the three countries and replace the China-Russia strategy of containing the U.S. with U.S.-Russia cooperation aimed at checking and balancing China, thereby creating a double whammy of suppression. If Trump is unable to attain this objective, he will resort to Plan B, which is to ensure Russia remains neutral and does not meddle in China-U.S. relations. This will allow the U.S. to focus on containing China. But this is just Trump's wishful thinking, and it is doomed to fail for the following reasons.First, Trump is genuinely pro-Russia and wants to improve U.S.-Russia relations, but his pro-Russia policies have been ruthlessly rejected by the US ruling elite. While Trump hailed the great achievements from his meeting with Putin, the US government announced fresh sanctions against Russia, dragging historically dismal U.S.-Russia relations down to a new low. In an instant, the so-called great achievements of the Trump-Putin summit were reduced to nothing and even pulled into negative territory. There is almost nothing Trump can do to improve relations with Russia, but he is still considering ways to unite with Russia to contain China.Second, there is a fundamental contradiction between Russia and the U.S. There is an element of mutual admiration and personal friendship between Putin and Trump. Russia has been kind to Trump and Trump needs Russia's help. Trump being president is also favorable to Russia. This, however, does not eliminate the fundamental contradiction that exists. The U.S. represents a mortal threat to Russia's national security and big power status. Russia cannot afford to retreat; it has no choice but to adopt countermeasures. This strategic contradiction between the two sides is irreconcilable. It is impossible for them to join forces to deal with China.Third, China has always been a sincere friend of Russia, China respects Russia's core interests and status as a big power, and no fundamental contradictions or conflicts of interests exist between them. Since both countries signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation in 2011, they have become good friends, neighbors, and partners, and shall remain so for generations to come. Putin has described Russia and China as being very good friends and reliable partners. The two countries' strategic relationship of cooperation is stronger and deeper than ever, and their friendship is better than it has ever been. The strategic relationship between China and Russia is not an alliance but depends on close cooperation for the sake of their fundamental interests. It is a relationship that cannot be separated or shaken by any force, no matter how great.

Trump's attempts to damage China-Russia relations will fail. But China-U.S. relations will continue to deteriorate due to Trump's irrational and mutually destructive policies toward China. Nevertheless, the common interests and cooperation that unite China and the U.S. still outweigh the contradictions and conflicts that beset them. It is still in the overall interests of both countries to maintain stable development in bilateral relations, and it is still the consensus among both political parties in the U.S. I believe that in the near future, with the joint efforts of both sides, it will be possible to overcome these temporary difficulties and put China-U.S. relations back on the track of stable development.