在信息社会化和大众对即时新闻热情高涨的时代，对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的许多评论似乎都集中在他的团队建设和政策制定上。这些很重要，但中国不应该随着特朗普的调子起舞，而是应该寻找主动塑造、主动创新和可能的替代方案。因此，为维护世界和平与繁荣，尤其是维护稳定而双赢的中美关系，我想向当选总统特朗普提出以下五点建议：

首先，当选总统特朗普应该顺应时代潮流，而非逆向而行。美国与其他主要大国之间的权力重置是当今最重要的动向。以史为鉴，可以让我们更好地看清未来。21世纪初恰逢小布什当政，他在阿富汗和伊拉克的两场战争极大削弱了美国的一超地位。尽管美国相对衰落将是一个漫长过程，甚至会有局部反弹和回升，但无论使用传统还是非传统手段，历史的趋势都无法逆转。而且，美国作为守成大国，不能躺在往日的辉煌上指责其他赶上并超过它的国家。事实上，当选总统特朗普必须用无情的现实来衡量他的国家。故此美国应该以前瞻思维遵循全球化进程，把握住经济和科技发展的高端领域。

其次，当选总统特朗普应该真正了解自己的使命和局限。在这次大选中，美国选民希望特朗普先生可以带领国家摆脱眼下的挫折和困难。广大民众要求通过强有力的领导，彻底扭转日益恶化的局势，即使这意味着他们不得不接受一个非常规的政府。然而，尽管他们授权进行激烈和根本性变革，美国人民却并没有为鲁莽而草率的战略和政策开绿灯。当选总统特朗普应当充分了解自己的局限。作为一个国家，美国总体是由既有宪法和机构管理，对于其中的绝大部分总统只能遵循，不能推翻。作为总统，特朗普先生必须让自己从商人变成“政治家”。一个纽约的商人与一个华盛顿的政治家是截然不同的。只有商人的DNA，远不足以成为一个称职的、成功的美国总统。

第三，当选总统特朗普应该学会处理错综复杂的国际事务。魔鬼在细节当中。对当选总统特朗普来说，在学习曲线的初段，谨慎处理外交政策可能更为安全。至少，他必须避免涉入以下三个危险水域。一是不能沉溺于简单化和情绪化。推特的确助他赢了这次大选，但它不会带来成功的外交政策。二是不能以单边主义取代多边主义。当选总统特朗普威胁退出巴黎气候变化协议、伊朗核协议和北美自由贸易协议等。而在对联合国、核不扩散协定和全面禁止核试验条约的处理上，小布什总统曾经付出高昂代价。三是不能把他所有的非常规决策都等同于重要的制度性革命。美国的确需要彻底变革国家机构，但这些变革应该精心设计，谨慎实施。

第四，当选总统特朗普应该在对华战略政策上有一个整体构想。美国和中国对维护世界和平与发展负有特殊责任。唯有将中美关系置于全球和地区背景下，当选总统特朗普的对华政策才能是互惠互利的。因此，在制定对华战略和指示对华政策的时候，当选总统必须考虑所有的可能性，尤其是在这一政策形成的时期。他与蔡英文通话，严重违背了尼克松以来连续八届美国政府的“一个中国”政策。同理，他对中国的草率评论也引起严重关注，造成了不确定性。事实上，让美国再次伟大要从国内做起，一味在外面寻找替罪羊是没有出路的。当选总统特朗普把美国大部分经济问题归咎于中国实在是选错了对象。

最后同样重要的是，当选总统特朗普应该区分地缘战略承诺与经济参与。有鉴于美国不得不采取地缘战略和地缘政治收缩的事实，当选总统特朗普必须明白，反经济全球化会适得其反。在全球化方面，绝大多数国家都认为它不可避免，这些国家都将顺应历史趋势。当选总统特朗普可以说服一些美国企业家留在国内，但他无法撕毁所有市场规则。在全球和区域治理方面，如果美国置身事外，则会失去更多。亚投行就是一个很好的例子。奥巴马总统作出不加入亚投行的错误决定，后来追悔莫及。甚至对于中国所谓的操纵汇率，《华尔街时报》的评论建议：“特朗普说他上任后将很快宣布中国是汇率操纵国，因为它使人民币对美元贬值。他也许要重新考虑这个问题了。”

我的所有上述建议既是出于好意，也是希望双方共赢。中国认为，合作是中美关系唯一正确的选择。根据中国的一贯思维与做法，中国行事克制，会给特朗普总统更多时间了解中美关系的重要性并加以实践。但国内外的形势发展不会等待太久，当选总统特朗普必须正确了解以建设性方式处理美中关系的紧迫性。

At the time of socialized information and popular zeal for immediate news, many comments about President-elect Donald Trump seem to focus on his team-building and policy formulation. Important as they are, the Chinese should not dance to Mr. Trump's tune but look for proactive shaping, creative initiatives and possible alternatives. Therefore, I would like to give the following five pieces of advices to President-elect Trump for maintaining peace and prosperity of the world in general and stable, win-win China-US relations in particular..

First of all, President-elect Trump should move along with instead of against the trends of our times. The re-configuration of powers between the United States and the other major players is one of today's most significant developments. History is a mirror that could help us to see the future more clearly. The beginning of the 21st century coincided with the presidency of George W. Bush, whose two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq greatly weakened the United States' status as the world's sole superpower. Although the US' relative decline will be long and even feature some partial resilience and reversion, historical trends cannot be turned back, whether by conventional or unconventional approaches. Moreover, the US as an established power cannot sleep on its glorious past by blaming others who are catching up and overtaking it. Indeed, President-elect Trump has to gauge his country by the hard truth of the realities. Therefore, the United States needs to follow the globalization path with forward-looking thoughts and holding the high-end of economic and scientific developments.

Second, President-elect Trump should truly understand his mandate and know his limits. During the past election, the American voters wished that Mr. Trump could lead the country out of the present debacles and difficulties. The broad masses demanded radical changes of the deteriorating situation through strong leadership, even it means that they have to accept an unconventional administration. However, while giving a mandate for drastic and fundamental changes, the American people are not giving the green light to rash and careless strategies and policies. President-elect Trump should know fully his limits. As a country, the United States is generally governed by its established constitution and institutions, most of which the president cannot deny but follow. As the president, Mr. Trump has to turn himself from a businessman to a “statesman”. A businessman in New York City is very different from a statesman in Washington, DC. The businessman's DNA alone is far from enough for a competent and successful president of the United States.

Third, President-elect Trump should learn to deal with intricate and complex global affairs. The devil is in the details. At the beginning of his learning curve, it would be safer for President-elect Trump to be prudent in the actual handling of foreign policies. At the least, he needs to avoid wading into the following three troubled waters. One is not to be addicted to oversimplification and emotionalization. Twitters did help him win the election, but it would not lead to successful foreign policies. Two is not to replace multilateralism with unilateralism. President-elect Trump threatens withdrawals from the Climate Change Paris Agreement, Iran Nuclear Agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement, among others. President George W. Bush paid dearly for his approaches towards the United Nations, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Three is not to equate all of his unconventional decision-making to the essential institutional revolution. It is true that the United States needs revolutions in state apparatus. However, these revolutions should be well-designed and carefully-executed.

Fourth, President-elect Trump should have integrated thoughts on its strategy and policy towards China. The United States and China carry on special responsibilities of maintaining peace and development of the world. Only putting China-US relations in the global and regional context, can President-elect Trump's China policy be mutually beneficiary. Therefore, when formulating China strategy and directing China policy, President-elect must factor in all the possible. It is extremely so at this policy-forming period. His phone talk with Ms. Tsai Ing-wen is a serious breach of the One-China Policy by eight consecutive US administrations since President Nixon. In the same vein, his rash comments on China have also caused grave concerns and invoked uncertainties. As a matter of fact, to make America great again starts from home and will lead to nowhere if focusing on outside scapegoats. Indeed, President-elect Trump is barking up the wrong tree when he attributes most of America's economic problems to China.

Last but not least, President-elect Trump should differentiate geo-strategic commitments and economic engagements. Given the fact that the United States has to adopt geo-strategic and geo-political retrenchments, President-elect Trump must realize that counter-economic-globalization is counterproductive. In terms of globalization, most countries believe that globalization is inevitable and they will move along with the historical trends. President-elect Trump could persuade some American enterprises to stay at home but he will not be able to tear up all market rules. In terms of global and regional governance, the United States will lose much more by staying out than in. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a good case in point. President Obama made a wrong decision not to join the AIIB and had to regret it later on. Even regarding China's so-called currency manipulation, the Wall Street Journal's comment advises him: “Donald Trump says he'll declare soon after he takes office that China is a currency manipulator because it is devaluing the yuan against the dollar. He may want to rethink that.”[1]

All the aforementioned advice points of mine are both well-intentioned and win-win oriented. China believes that cooperation is the only correct choice for China-US relations. With its usual thinking and practice, China exercises self-restraints and gives more time to President Trump to learn the importance of China-US relations and practice accordingly. However, the internal and external developments will not wait too long. Therefore, President-elect Trump must truly realize the urgency of managing US-China relations in a constructive manner.

[1] http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-chinese-currency-manipulation-1481155139?utm_source=Media+Action+Report+December+8%2C+2016&utm_campaign=Media+Action+Report&utm_medium=email