今年以来，国际环境更趋复杂，世界经济复苏疲弱，国内经济结构性矛盾加剧，风险隐患有所积累。

国内经济结构性矛盾加剧。

上半年中国经济怎么看？

中国经济处于预期增长区间，上半年GDP增长6.7%，供给侧有所企稳，需求侧明显走弱。从供给侧看，在工业品价格反弹、企业利润回升、供给侧结构性改革等因素推动下，工业生产稳中略升，二季度规模以上工业增长6.1%，较一季度回升0.3个百分点；在房地产市场活跃、科技创新研发设计、旅游等服务业的拉动下，第三产业保持稳定增长，二季度第三产业增长7.5%，仅较一季度放缓0.1个百分点。从需求侧看，固定资产投资增速持续放缓，特别是民间投资大幅下滑，但是服务业、高技术产业投资增长较快；消费品市场保持平稳增长，居民消费对经济增长的贡献率上半年大幅提高至73.4%；外贸出口依然低迷、进口降幅再度扩大。此外，物价水平温和上涨，企业效益有所回升，金融市场总体平稳，城镇新增就业持续增加。

供给侧有所企稳，需求侧明显走弱。

下半年中国经济怎么走？

可以实现全年预期增长目标。展望下半年，由于国际环境复杂多变、民间投资断崖式下跌、去产能进展缓慢、金融风险上升、居民收入增长放缓等问题，中国经济运行下行压力依然较大。但是，在积极的宏观调控政策有力的托举下，随着供给侧结构性改革红利不断释放，中国经济有望实现平稳运行，预计下半年和全年GDP均将增长6.6%左右，可以实现6.5%-7%的预期调控目标。

固定资产投资增速有望逐步企稳。上半年新开工项目明显改善，企业效益的回升，将对下一阶段投资增长带来积极的支撑作用。当前信贷投放比较宽松，专项建设基金以及投贷结合明显改善了资金到位情况。基建投资将继续保持快速增长，是稳投资的关键，房地产投资随着市场形势回调将稳中趋缓，制造业投资在政策推动下有望遏制住下滑势头。预计全年固定资产投资将增长9.0%左右，其中，房地产投资将增长5.5%左右。

消费需求将保持平稳增长。当前，就业形势基本稳定，城乡居民收入增长和经济增长基本同步，居民消费结构升级、商品房销售形势较好是消费需求平稳增长的主要支柱。但是，经济和收入增长放缓对消费的滞后影响将会显现。预计全年社会消费品零售总额均增长10.2%左右。

外贸进出口形势仍将承压。世界经济复苏难以强劲回升，外部市场需求低迷态势仍将延续；经济不景气导致各国利益取向的分歧凸显，贸易保护主义有所抬头，尤其是针对中国的贸易壁垒尤为突出。当然，上半年人民币实际有效汇率的贬值，会对外贸出口带来一定促进作用。预计全年出口将下降6.2%左右，进口将下降8.0%左右。

居民消费物价将保持温和上涨态势，既没有通货膨胀压力，也不会出现通货紧缩问题。一是劳动力成本呈现出刚性上涨态势，服务价格稳中略升。二是货币流动性相对宽松，有助于遏制居民消费价格进一步走低。三是尽管粮食供应充足，但是肉禽价格受季节需求变化，蔬菜受天气等因素影响，食品价格具有较大不确定性。此外，下半年翘尾因素由上半年的0.9减弱至0.4个百分点。预计全年居民消费价格将上涨2%左右。

中国宏观调控政策怎么办？

下半年经济工作的核心是处理好供给侧结构性改革和需求管理的关系。首先，适度扩大总需求，保持经济运行在合理区间，为供给侧结构性改革创造良好的宏观环境。坚持问题导向和目标导向，大力缓解民营企业融资难，化解过剩产能、培育新增长动能，激发民间投资的积极性。其次，下决心加快推进供给侧结构性改革，确保“三去一降一补”五大任务取得积极进展。去产能和去杠杆，关键是加快推进国企和金融领域基础性改革，去库存和补短板重在城镇化推进，让农民工成为真正的市民，降成本要考虑降低宏观税负。此外，要提高宏观调控政策的质量，给市场明确预期，形成稳定的政策信号。

Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated, and the world economic recovery has been weak, China's economic structural problems have become worse and the hidden risks have accumulated.

China's economic structural problems have become worse.

How to view China's economy in the first half of the year?

China's economy remains in the expected growth range. In the first half of the year, GDP grew 6.7 percent and the supply side stabilized slightly while the demand side clearly got weak. In terms of supply, driven by such factors as the rebounding price of industrial products, expanded corporate profits and supply-side structural reform, industrial production stabilized and even edged up, and above-scale industrial output grew 6.1 percent in the second quarter, an increase of 0.3 percentage point over the first quarter. Promoted by the brisk real estate market, by the technological innovation, R&D and design, and by service sectors like tourism, the tertiary industrial output maintained a steady growth, up by 7.5 percent in the second quarter and only 0.1 percent lower than the first quarter. On the demand side, fixed asset investment continued to grow slowly and the private investment fell down sharply in particular. But the service sectors and the high-tech industries showed a fast investment increase; the consumer goods market remained stable and contributions from residential consumption to economic growth rose significantly to 73.4 percent in the first half of the year; export figures were still in the doldrums and imports further declined. Meanwhile, the rise of prices was moderate, the enterprise revenues bounced back somewhat, the financial market stayed stable in general and new jobs kept growing in cities.

The supply side stabilized slightly while the demand side clearly got weak.

Where will China's economy go in the second half of the year?

The expected goal of economic growth for the whole year can be achieved. Looking to the second half of 2016, China's economy will still be under a great pressure due to these factors: the complicated and uncertain international environment, the dramatic fall of private investment, the slow reduction of overcapacity, the rising financial risk, the slow growth of residential income and so on. But, backed by the proactive macro regulation policy and with the continuous release of dividends from the supply-side structural reform, China's economy is expected to run smoothly. The GDP for the second half of the year and for the whole year is predicted to grow around 6.6 percent. The expected goal of 6.5-7 percent can be realized.

Fixed asset investment is expected to become stable. In the first half of the year, the obvious increase of new projects and the rise of enterprise revenues will boost investment in the next stage. The availability of funds has clearly improved because of the current relative easing of credit, special construction funds and the combination of investment and loans. Investment in infrastructure will continue to grow fast, a key to stabilizing investment. The real estate market will grow steadily and slowly with the market correction. Helped by policies, the manufacturing investment is expected to stop falling. Fixed asset investment for the whole year is expected to grow about 9 percent, about 5.5 percent of which will be real estate investment growth.

Consumer demand will continue steady growth. Now, employment is basically stable, and income growth of both urban and rural residents is generally in line with the economic growth. The upgrading of the residential consumption structure and the improving sales of commercial property greatly shore up consumer demand. But the slow growth of the economy and income will have a lagging impact on consumption. Retail sales of consumer goods for the whole year will increase about 10.2 percent on average.

Imports and exports will still be under pressure. The global economy will struggle to recover and external market demand will stay sluggish; economic recession will lead to more differences among countries out of their own interests, giving rise to trade protection and trade barriers against China in particular. Of course, the real effective depreciation of the RMB in the first half of the year will prop up China's imports and exports to some degree. The figure for exports is expected to go down by 6.2 percent and imports down by 8.0 percent for the whole year.

Consumer prices will continue to show mild growth. There will be neither inflation nor deflation. The reasons for this: first, labor cost shows a strong growing momentum and service prices are steady but rising a bit. Second, monetary liquidity is relatively easy, which helps prevent the consumer price from declining further. Third, despite the ample supply of grains, food prices are rather uncertain because the prices of meat and poultry are subject to seasonal demand and vegetables are affected by the weather. In addition, carryover effects will reduce from 0.9 percentage point in the first half of the year to 0.4 percentage point in the second half of the year. Consumer prices for the whole year are expected to increase 2 percent.

What macro regulation policy should China implement?

The focus of the economic plan for the second half of the year is to better cope with the relation between supply-side structural reform and demand management. First, moderately expand the aggregate demand and keep the economy running within a reasonable range so as to create a good macro environment for the supply-side structural reform. Stay problem-oriented and target-oriented, considerably alleviate the financing difficulty of private enterprises, reduce excess capacity, foster new growth and stimulate private investment. Second, speed up the supply-side structural reform to ensure a vigorous progress of the five major tasks: cut overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing cost and strengthening weak links. The key to cutting overcapacity and destocking is to accelerate and push forward the fundamental reform of the State-Owned Enterprises and the financial area; the focus on destocking and improving the weak links is pushing forward urbanization, turning the migrant workers into real citizens. Consider lowering the macro tax in cost reduction. In addition, enhance the quality of the macro regulation policy and give markets clear expectations to provide a stable policy.