1月中下旬，中美两国官方统计机构先后发布2021年第四季度及全年国民经济核算数据，引起各国经济分析机构和国际机构的广泛关注。比较有代表性的一种观点认为，中国第四季度经济增长明显下降，而美国第四季度经济增长明显超出预期，因此，美国的增长态势好于中国。本人认为有必要对上述观点进行解析。

首先，直接将中美两国经济数据进行比较，似乎美国经济增速明显超过中国。据中国国家统计局发布的数据，2021年第四季度中国GDP同比增长4.0%，而据美国商务部经济分析局发布的数据，当季美国GDP同比增长5.5%，增长率确实高于中国。但应该看到的是，2020-2021年期间，由于受疫情影响，两国经济增长率都出现了很大波动，季度经济增长率都曾出现较大幅度下降，且两国经济恢复步调存在差异。为此，以2019年四季度为基期，观察两年平均增长率，似乎更能反映增长态势。美国2020-2021年第四季度的季度平均增长率为1.6%，而中国为5.2%，比美国高出不少。其中的主要原因，是2020年第四季度美国经济刚刚出现恢复。

其次，2021年第四季度中美两国GDP环比增长率比较接近，且美国的增长受到补充库存的较大影响。2021年三、四季度中国GDP环比增长率分别为0.7%和1.6%，美国分别为0.6%和1.7%。但两国统计机构在数据表达方式上习惯不同，中国直接公布GDP的季度环比增长率，而美国公布的是季度环比增长率折合年率的数据。此外，2021年第四季度美国能够实现较高增长，很大程度上是受到补充库存的影响。按照2012年不变价计算，2021年四季度美国GDP（折合年率）环比增加3271亿美元，其中库存增加2403亿美元，对GDP增长的贡献率达到73.5%。2021年四季度库存增加额占当季GDP比例略高于0.9%，而本世纪以来美国各季度库存增加额占GDP比例的平均值为0.2%。如果库存比例与平均值持平，则2021年第四季度的GDP环比增长率仅为0.7%，折合年率为2.9%，就会是一个比正常水平略高的增长率。

再者，2021年美国经济实现了5.7%的高增长，是1985年以来的最高纪录，但应该注意的是，这是在2020年出现经济下降3.4%后的恢复性增长，两年平均增长率只有1%，还低于美国的长期平均增长率。特别需要指出的是，美国为扭转2020年下降势头并在2021年实现经济增长，付出了巨大的代价。一是美国财政连续两年出现大规模赤字，根据美国财政部及行政管理和预算局发布的联合报告，2020和2021两个财年的赤字分别高达3.13万亿美元和2.77万亿美元，为美国历史上赤字规模最大的两个年份，赤字占GDP的比例分别高达15.2%和12.4%。同时，美联储大量增发货币，2020、2021年两年内美国广义货币M2增加了6.3万亿，而2019年末美国M2余额为15.4万亿美元，可见近两年美国货币增加规模之大。由于财政大量超支和货币大量发行，造成美国在2021年出现严重通货膨胀。根据美国劳工统计局的数据，2021年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅达到7.0%，这也是1982年以来美国月度CPI涨幅的最高纪录。与之相对照，2021年中国消费者价格指数（CPI）仅上涨0.9%，形成了高增长、低通胀的组合。

最后，对2022年美国经济形势的估计不宜过于乐观。日前，IMF发布经济预测报告，认为美国2022年经济增长4%，中国经济增长4.8%。在笔者看来，这样的估计对美国可能过于乐观，对中国的估计又可能过于悲观。如上所述，美国2021年实现较高经济增长，采取了刺激力度巨大的财政政策和极为宽松的货币政策。现在看，为了应对严重的通货膨胀，2022年美国财政部将明显收缩财政赤字规模，美联储也已经明确了加息和缩减资产负债表的政策方向。在美国宏观经济政策力度明显减弱的情况下，加上2021年底以来新冠变异病毒奥密克戎在美国大范围蔓延，抑制了消费需求且扰乱了供应链，美国经济增长将受到明显影响而放缓。美国知名经济分析研究机构世界大型企业联合会2022年1月份预测美国今年GDP增长3.5%，明显低于IMF的预测。

对中国而言，由于抗击疫情成效较好，经济较早得到恢复，经济增长率已从大幅度波动的状态回归到比较平稳的状态，而且财政政策和货币政策都有较大的调整空间，2022年有望实现5%以上的经济增速。

In mid- to late-January, authorities in China and the U.S. released their respective Q4 and whole-year GDP statistics, having drawn close scrutiny from domestic and international analysts and watchers. A widely held reading is that while the Chinese economy slowed significantly in Q4 2021, the U.S. economy markedly overshot expectations in the same period. Hence the conclusion that the U.S. economy is in a better shape than China's. But I beg to differ.

On the surface, it seems that the U.S. economic growth rate outpaced China. According to the Bureau of Statistics of China, the Chinese economy grew 4 percent year-on-year in Q4 2021. The data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis suggests a GDP growth of 5.5 percent year-on-year in Q4 2021. The comparison seemingly shows that the U.S. economy is growing faster than China in Q4.But we should not disregard the fact that in 2020 and 2021, both economies saw major fluctuations in their aggregate economy and a substantial contraction in quarterly economic growth. Moreover, the two economies diverge in terms of phase of recovery.Therefore, it makes more sense to examine their growth using Q4 2019 as the baseline, with 2019 to 2021 as a two-year duration, an approach that could yield a better portrayal of the growth trajectory. Using this framework, the U.S. Q4 growth from 2020 to 2021 averaged 1.6 percent, while China's average stood at 5.2 percent, leading the U.S. by a wide margin. A key contributor was that the U.S. economy had just started to rebound in Q4 2020, and the 2020 quarterly reading, which was 2.3 percent lower than the previous year, compared with 6.4 percent growth of the Chinese economy in the same period.

Second, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rates of China and the U.S. in Q4 2021 are relatively close, with the growth in the U.S. primarily driven by restocking activities. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of China in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 were 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, while those of the U.S. read 0.6 percent and 1.7 percent. Because of the different statistical calculation pattern and data presentation, Chinese authorities released a quarterly growth rate of GDP, while the U.S. published the quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate, known as QoQ SAAR, which makes U.S. data appear higher.Further number crunching shows that the higher U.S. growth in the Q4 2021 was in large part due to inventory restocking. If we take the 2012 constant price GDP as the baseline, U.S. SAAR GDP in Q4 2021 increased by $327.1 billion, of which the inventories alone amounted to $240.3 billion, contributing 73.5 percent to GDP growth.The inventory increment as a percentage of GDP in Q4 2021 was slightly above 0.9 percent, while the arithmetic average of inventory increment as a percentage of U.S. GDP throughout this century is 0.2 percent. If the quarterly inventory increment as a percentage of GDP for Q4 2021 is on par with the 0.2 percent level, then GDP growth for that quarter would be only 0.7 percent year-on-year, which translates into an annual rate of 2.9 percent, just slightly higher than the normal growth rate. And it would be significantly lower than China's QoQ growth rate.

The U.S. economy registered a growth rate of 5.7 percent in 2021, but it came at a high cost. Historically, annual U.S. GDP growth of 5.7 percent is rarely seen in half a century — it's a record high since 1985. It should be noted, however, that the U.S. economy outperformed in 2021 against a negative 3.4 percent growth rate in 2020. But the two-year average growth rate is only 1 percent, still below the long-term U.S. average economic growth rate.In particular, it should be noted that the U.S. has paid a hefty price to reverse the 2020 decline and achieve economic growth in 2021:First, the U.S. government has run massive deficits for two consecutive years. According to a joint report issued by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of Administration and Budget, the deficits for fiscal years 2020 and 2021 are as high as $3.13 trillion and $2.77 trillion, setting new records in U.S. history and resulting in deficit ratios of 15.2 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively.At the same time, due to the QE policy of the Federal Reserve, the broad money supply (M2) increased by $6.3 trillion in 2020-21, while the U.S. M2 supply was $15.4 trillion at the end of 2019, highlighting the substantial ballooning of the money supply over the past two years. The massive fiscal overspending and money printing led to severe inflation in 2021. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose by 7.0 percent year-on-year in December, the highest monthly increase since 1982. By contrast, China's CPI rose only 0.9 percent in 2021, and thus managed to deliver high growth in tandem with low inflation.

Finally, we should not be overly optimistic of U.S. economic prospects in 2022. A few days ago, in the latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast that the U.S. economy will grow by 4 percent in 2022 and China by 4.8 percent. I think this is too optimistic for the U.S. and too pessimistic for China.As mentioned above, the U.S. achieved higher economic growth in 2021 on the back of a highly stimulative fiscal policy and excessively accommodative monetary policy. The U.S. will significantly cut its fiscal deficit in 2022 to tame inflation, and the Federal Reserve has indicated clearly its policy path of rate hikes and a balance sheet runoff.As the U.S. moderates the strength of its stimulus, coupled with a surge in the Omicron variant of the coronavirus since the end of 2021, consumer demand will be suppressed and supply chains disrupted, creating a drag on U.S. economic growth. The Conference Board, a leading U.S. economic analyst and research firm, projected U.S. GDP growth of 3.5 percent in January, which is significantly lower than the IMF's forecast.

In China, due to solid headway in the fight against the pandemic, the economy managed to get back on firmer ground quickly and has transitioned from fluctuations to greater stability. There is still headroom for adjustment of both fiscal and monetary policy, as the Chinese economy is expected to register a growth rate of over 5 percent this year.