不出所料，中国今年第一季度GDP同比增幅达到惊人的18.3%。这是基于2020年第一季度的低基数，当时由于新冠疫情暴发，中国GDP下降了6.8%，为59年以来的最大降幅。若与疫情前的2019年第一季度相比，今年第一季度增长10.3%，相当于年均增长5.0%，比疫情前仍然低大约1个百分点。

驱动力和变化

第一、第二产业总体来说已经恢复正常增长，平均增长年率为2.3%和6.0%，2019年是增长3.1%和5.7%。另一方面，第三产业去年和今年的增长率仅为4.7%，而2019年则增长6.9%。

高科技产业是经济的主要引擎，新能源汽车、工业机器人、微型计算机、集成电路的同比增幅超过60%，过去两年平均增速达到19%。货物进出口为另一个引擎，进出口总额超过1.3万亿美元，今年第一季度比去年同期增长38.6%，比2019年第一季度增长20.9%。过去两年进出口平均增长率高达10.0%，是2019年全年增长率（3.4%）的近3倍。这意味着贸易增速已经高于趋势线，其中出口的表现好于进口。今年第一季度，出口增长49.0%，进口增长28.0%，净出口对GDP增长起到了良好的推动作用。

在今年剩下的时间里，经济的主要驱动力将发生变化，第三产业将获得增长势头，净出口涨势则将趋于平稳。最近的指标显示，第三产业出现迟到的反弹，3月份服务业商务活动指数为55.2%，比2月份提高4.4个百分点。

住宿、餐饮和租赁已回归繁荣区间，铁路、航空运输、金融、互联网服务的商务活动指数也都达60%以上。随着工业生产快速扩张，与工业相关的服务业将更快增长。看来，第三产业在第二季度会有更高的增长率，并在今年下半年进一步加速。第三产业占GDP的半壁江山，其加速发展将为整体经济提供新的决定性驱动力。

然而，随着世界许多地区的快速复苏减少了对中国商品的需求，净出口在一定程度上将失去增长动力。

在制造业投资增长的进一步支撑下，工业生产将继续保持目前的强劲势头。总体而言，2021年中国的GDP增长会在9%左右，略高于IMF最新估计的8.4%，不过2019年至2021年的平均增长率只有5.5%，仍比疫情之前的年份要低。

推动全球复苏

与去年不同，今年世界经济的增长情况将发生重大变化，中国将不再是唯一实现增长的主要经济体。复苏将是广泛的，IMF在4月6日发布的最新《世界经济展望》中预计，经过2020年下滑3.3%之后，全球GDP将增长6.0%。发达经济体将增长5.1%，其中美国一马当先，将增长6.4%。新兴市场和发展中经济体将增长6.7%，亚洲发展中经济体将增长8.6%。

中国也将不再是增长最快的主要经济体，印度的增速预计为12.5%。去年中国GDP已经占到全球GDP的17%，今年中国GDP若增长8.4%，将为全球经济增长贡献1.4个百分点。如果美国2021年GDP增长率达到6.4%，那么它将贡献1.6个百分点。把2020年和2021年合起来的话，世界经济将增长2.5%，其中中国将贡献1.7个百分点，是最大的贡献者。

贸易的新动力

自相矛盾的是，被普遍认为因贸易战而陷入低迷的中美贸易，在今年第一季度成为了亮点，同比增幅达到73.1%。其中，中国对美出口增长74.7%，自美进口增长69.2%，与2018年第一季度贸易战前的高水平相比，出口和进口分别增长了19.3%和11.7%。换句话说，事实上，麻烦不断的中美贸易为中国今年第一季度GDP的增长做出了积极贡献。如果这一趋势继续下去，除非出现任何重大意外挫折，2021年中美双边贸易额将达到历史最高水平，超过2018年创下的6335.2亿美元（中国海关数据）。

3月份，美国对华出口增长更快，达到172.9亿美元，同比增长了74.8%，超过中国对美出口的增长53.3%。如果美国的出口在今年剩余时间里保持3月份的增长势头，那么2021年美国对华出口将历史上首次突破2000亿美元大关，并超过中美“第一阶段”协议的首年目标。

别忘了，美国对中国商品征收的额外关税和中国对美国商品征收的反制关税仍然存在。最新发展状况说明，随着美国经济强劲复苏，中国产品是符合其市场需求的。美国产品在中国市场也有良好的发展前景，因为中国经济也在不断增长。今年第一季度，中国对全球农产品的进口同比增长33.8%，汽车进口增长30.2%，机床进口增长29.2%，飞机进口增长100%，机械和电子产品进口增长30.9%，高科技产品进口增长31.0%，这其中美国出口商占有很大的份额。

中国经济的增强也意味着对全球投资者的吸引力越来越大。2020年，中国成为全球唯一跨境直接投资增长的目的地。2021年第一季度，流入中国的外国直接投资大幅增长，达到448.6亿美元（非金融类），比低迷的2020年第一季度增长43.8%，甚至比疫情前的2019年第一季度高24.8%。同样，对美国投资者来说这是大好机会，而且不会有损失。

It is unsurprising that Chinese GDP rose by an astonishing 18.3 percent year-on-year during Q1. It was on a very low base of Q1 2020, when its GDP fell by 6.8 percent because of the coronavirus outbreak, the steepest drop of the past 59 years. Compared with the pre-pandemic period of Q1 2019, it was up 10.3 percent, or a 5.0 percent average annual rate, still roughly 1 percentage point lower than the years before COVID-19.

Drivers and changes

The primary and secondary sectors are back to normal growth in general. The average annual growth rates during this period were 2.3 percent and 6.0 percent respectively. In 2019, the primary sector grew by 3.1 percent and the secondary sector by 5.7 percent. The tertiary sector, on the other hand, grew by only 4.7 percent annually over the past two years, compared with 6.9 percent growth in 2019.

The high-tech industry served as the prime engine for the economy. New-energy vehicles, industrial robots, microcomputers and integrated circuits shot up more than 60 percent year-on-year and managed 19 percent annual growth over the past two years. The import and export of goods served as another engine. Total import and export volume exceeded $1.3 trillion, 38.6 percent higher than a year ago, and was 20.9 percent higher than Q1 2019.The average annual growth rate for the past two years was as high as 10.0 percent, nearly three times the rate of the whole year of 2019 (3.4 percent). It means that trade has already enjoyed above-trend growth. Exports performed better than imports. During Q1 this year, exports grew by 49.0 percent and imports by 28.0 percent, making net exports a good driver for GDP growth.

There will be changes in the main drivers for the rest of the year. The tertiary sector will gain momentum while net exports will level off. Recent indicators have shown a late rebound in the tertiary sector. The overall business index for the service sector stood at 55.2 percent in March, 4.4 percentage points higher than in February.

Accommodations, catering and leasing have seen a return to the boom zone. Rail and air transportation, and financial and internet services too, have business activity indices above 60 percent. With the fast expansion of industry production, industry-related services will grow faster. It looks likely that the tertiary sector will have a higher growth rate during Q2, to be further accelerated during the second half of this year. As the tertiary sector accounts for over half of total GDP, its acceleration will become a new, decisive driver for the whole economy.

Net exports, however, will lose steam somewhat as a result of a faster recovery in many parts of the world, reducing demand for Chinese goods.

Industrial production will continue its current strength, supported further by a rise in manufacturing investment. On balance, China's GDP growth for 2021 will be around 9 percent, slightly higher than the latest IMF estimate of 8.4 percent, leaving the average annual growth rate during the 2019-21 period at 5.5 percent, still lower than the pre-pandemic years.

Boosting world recovery

Unlike last year, this year will see significant change in the world's economic growth scenario. China will no longer be the only leading economy that had growth. The recovery will be broadly based. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook released on April 6 estimated that global GDP to grow by 6.0 percent, after a 3.3 percent dip in 2020. Developed economies will grow by 5.1 percent, with the U.S. leading the way at 6.4 percent. Emerging markets and developing economies will grow at 6.7 percent, with developing Asia set to grow by 8.6 percent.

China will no longer be the fastest growing leading economy either, with India expected to grow by 12.5 percent. China accounted for 17 percent of total global GDP last year. With 8.4 percent GDP growth, it will contribute 1.4 percentage points to world growth. The United States, if it hits 6.4 GDP growth for 2021, will contribute 1.6 percentage points. If we take 2020 and 2021 together, the world will grow by 2.5 percent, with 1.7 percentage points contributed by China, with China still the leading contributor.

New impetus for trade

Paradoxically, China-U.S. trade, which is generally perceived as depressed as a result of the trade war, became a bright spot during Q1 this year when it shot up by 73.1 percent year-on-year. Chinese exports to the U.S. were up by 74.7 percent and imports from the U.S. by 69.2 percent — 19.3 and 11.7 percent higher respectively over Q1 2018, the pre-trade war high. In other words, the much-troubled China-U.S. trade relations in fact contributed positively to China's GDP growth for Q1 this year. If this trend continues, barring any significant, unexpected setbacks, two-way trade volume in 2021 will hit a historical high, outstripping the previous record of $633.52 billion (China Customs data) set in 2018.

U.S. exports to China grew much faster in March, at $17.29 billion — 74.8 percent up year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of Chinese exports to the U.S., which were at 53.3 percent. If U.S. exports keep up their tempo in March for the rest of the year, 2021 will see U.S. exports to China breaking the $200 billion barrier for the first time in history and exceeding the target of the China-U.S. phase-one agreement for the first year.

Don't forget that extra tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods, and the Chinese counter-tariffs on U.S. goods are still there. The latest developments show that Chinese products suit the market needs in the U.S., with its economy in firm recovery. And U.S. products have good, growing prospects in the Chinese market as the economy there is also gaining strength. During Q1, Chinese imports of agricultural products worldwide increased by 33.8 percent year-on-year. Automobiles were up 30.2 percent, machine tools by 29.2 percent, aircraft by 100 percent, machinery and electronics by 30.9 percent and high-tech products by 31.0 percent — and the U.S. exporters have had a good share of it.

The strengthening of the Chinese economy also means growing attractiveness for global investors. In 2020, China was the only destination where world cross-border direct investment flows registered growth. During the first quarter of 2021, FDI inflows to China accelerated tremendously, hitting $ 44.86 billion (non-financial sector), a 43.8 percent rise over the depressed Q1 2020, but even 24.8 percent higher than Q1 2019 in the pre-pandemic period. Again, there are good opportunities for U.S. investors, and no chance to lose.