菲律宾与澳大利亚军队于2025年8月24日在菲律宾西部、毗邻南海的巴拉望岛举行了史上最大规模的联合演习——"ALON 2025"联合强行突入行动（CJFEO）。（图片来源：X）

澳大利亚国防部长理查德·马尔斯和菲律宾国防部长吉尔伯托在一份联合声明中表示：“双方同意开展旨在提升集体行动能力、增强协同能力并加强双多边防务合作的项目。”这两个美国盟友誓言将共同推进旨在“加强菲律宾领土防御能力”的项目，同时确保菲律宾“对其所有设施保持完全主权”，表明双边防务关系得到了重大提升。

两国此前已签署双边《访问部队协议》。种种迹象表明，两国将实施类似于《美菲加强防务合作协议》的协议，允许澳大利亚军队和武器系统轮流部署到指定设施。多达“五个地点的八个基础设施项目”将向菲律宾各地的澳大利亚军队开放。

此前不久，菲律宾和澳大利亚军队举行了两国史上规模最大的联合演习，即代号“ALON 2025”的“联合强行进入行动”（CJFEO）。演习在菲律宾西部、毗邻南海的巴拉望岛举行，来自菲律宾武装部队、澳大利亚国防军、美国海军陆战队和加拿大皇家海军的3600多人员参加，日本、韩国和新西兰也派出观察员。这表明菲律宾正崛起成为印太地区志同道合大国网络的新枢纽。

8月，菲律宾船只闯入黄岩岛水域，和中国海警船发生摩擦。随后，美国向该地区派遣两艘军舰，作为对其东南亚条约盟友菲律宾的支持，紧张局势进一步升级。中国采取反制措施，派遣军舰和一架战斗机“驱离”该地区的外国军队。整起事件代表了南海紧张局势的危险转折，也彰显了马尼拉和北京捍卫各自核心利益的决心。明年，菲律宾将担任东盟轮值主席国，这为缓和紧张局势并积极寻求双方都能接受的长期外交解决方案提供了机会。

关于南海最新争端的具体情况，各方的说法是矛盾的。中国指责菲律宾挑衅，并坚称其只是对菲律宾船只在黄岩岛的入侵进行了“专业、规范、合法、合规”的处置。黄岩岛是一处存在争议的岛礁。2012年中菲海军对峙数月以来，该岛礁实际上已处于中国的控制之下。

菲律宾也声称对争议浅滩拥有主权，并坚称其只是在200海里专属经济区内行使主权。菲律宾高级官员声称，此次事件表明中国越来越愿意冒风险，包括直接攻击菲律宾船只。

然而，显而易见的是，南海争端正进入危险阶段。爆发致命冲突，甚至超级大国之间进行权力对决的风险显而易见。美国已经澄清，其与马尼拉签署的《共同防御条约》涵盖在南海地区对菲律宾军队、公共船只和飞机的任何攻击。

黄岩岛距离菲律宾苏比克湾的战略设施仅100多海里。由于担心紧张局势升级，马尼拉一直没有向黄岩岛派遣军舰。但是，这个东南亚国家正加强与西方大国的安全合作，甚至主动提出在处于战略要地的设施内驻扎美国和澳大利亚军队。

无论从哪方面看，中国都是南海争端的主导方。其年度国防开支（2024年为3140亿美元）是菲律宾（2024年为61亿美元）的50倍。更不用说，中国不仅拥有规模大得多的常备军，还拥有多架第五代战斗机、多艘航空母舰，以及世界上规模最大的海军。相比之下，菲律宾至今尚未拥有一架成熟的第四代战斗机，最近才开始采购更加现代化的中型战舰。

为了缩小与中国日益扩大的差距，菲律宾正在吸引西方大国，并利用来自众多印太国家的国防援助与合作。然而，菲律宾增强自身国防实力的行动激怒了中国，中国对美国主导的遏制战略感到担忧。而进一步激怒中国的是，马尼拉越来越明确地接受美国主导的对台战略，尤其是五角大楼扩大了在菲律宾北部的军事部署和演习规模。

其结果将导致危险的战略僵局。展望未来，两国应采取加强信任的措施，借鉴在有争议的仁爱礁进行的“临时协议”试验——菲律宾和中国官员在那里建立了热线和相互通报机制。双方还应避免在该地区部署军舰或进行大规模军事演习，并将任何海上争端限制在民间海岸警卫队范围内。

为了避免任何误解，马尼拉还应在台湾问题上（该问题极其敏感）调整其措辞，至少应避免公开宣布可能参与任何针对中国的军事行动。中国方面应该理解，菲律宾必须为其北部地区任何潜在的冲突做好准备。较弱的邻国寻求强国帮助以平衡南海局势，也是自然而然的事情。

马尼拉即将担任东盟主席国，各国领导人预计将于明年访问菲律宾。现在不仅要扩大菲中双边对话，还要大力推进南海行为准则的谈判。虽然没有灵丹妙药来解决这些看似棘手的争端，但马尼拉和北京肩负着共同的责任。它们必须缓和紧张局势，通过外交手段缓解当前的安全困境，以维护地区和平与安全。

Filipino and Australian troops conducted their largest-ever joint exercises, the Combined Joint Forcible Entry Operations (CJFEO) for Exercise ALON 2025, which took place in the western island of Palawan embracing the South China Sea, Aug. 24, 2025. (Photo: X)

“Both sides agreed to undertake projects that increase our combined collective capability, enhance interoperability and strengthen bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation,” declared Australian Minister of Defense Richard Marles and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto in a joint statement. The two U.S. allies vowed to pursue projects that jointly “strengthen the Philippines' territorial defense capabilities” while ensuring the Southeast Asian nation “maintain[s] full sovereignty over all its sites,” indicating a major upgrade in bilateral defense ties.

By all indications, the two countries, which already have a bilateral Visiting Forces Agreement, are set to embrace their own version of U.S.-Philippines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), thus enabling rotational deployment of Australian troops and weapons systems to designated facilities. As many as “eight different infrastructure projects across five different locations” will be opened up to Australian forces across the Philippines.

The announcement came shortly after Filipino and Australian troops conducted their largest-ever joint exercises, the Combined Joint Forcible Entry Operations (CJFEO) for Exercise ALON 2025, which took place in the western island of Palawan embracing the South China Sea. As many as 3,600 personnel from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), the Australian Defense Force (ADF), United States Marine Corps and the Royal Canadian Navy took part in the drills, with Japan, South Korea and New Zealand deploying observers – underscoring the Philippines' emergence as the pivot of a new network of likeminded Indo-Pacific powers.

Crucially, the new pact and massive joint exercises between Manila and its Western allies came on the heels of a near-collision between Philippine and Chinese maritime forces near the contested Scarborough Shoal. In early-August, a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warship accidentally rammed into a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel, which, in turn, was chasing a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) patrolling in Beijing-claimed waters.Tensions further rose after the U.S. deployed two warships to the area in support of its Southeast Asian treaty ally, prompting countermeasures by Beijing, which deployed warships and a fighter jet to “drive away” the foreign forces from the area. The whole episode underscores the perilous turn in the South China Sea tensions, but also the determination of both Manila and Beijing to defend their core interests. With the Philippines set to assume the rotational chairmanship of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year, there is opportunity for de-escalation and proactive pursuit of a mutually acceptable long-term diplomatic solution.

The exact circumstances of the latest tussle in the South China Sea is shrouded in contradictory statements. China has accused the Philippines of provocation and maintains that it was simply engaged in a “professional, standardised, legitimate and legal” against intruding Philippine vessels in the Scarbrough Shoal – a contested land feature that has been under Beijing's de facto control following a months-long Sino-Philippine naval stand-off in 2012.

The Philippines, which also claims the contested shoal, maintains that it was simply exercising its sovereign rights within its 200 nautical miles Exclusive Economic Zone. Top Filipino officials claim that the incident demonstrates China's increased risk appetite[1], including the will to directly assault Philippine vessels.

What's clear, however, is that the South China Sea disputes are entering a dangerous phase. There are clear risks of deadly clashes and, even, a superpower power showdown. America has clarified that its Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila covers any attack on Filipino troops, public vessels and aircrafts in the South China Sea area.

Both the Philippines and the U.S. have also warned China against militarizing and reclaiming the contested shoal, which lies just above 100 nautical miles away from strategic Filipino facilities in Subic Bay. Wary of escalating tensions, Manila has shunned deployment of warships to the Scarborough Shoal. But the Southeast Asian country is doubling down on its security cooperation with Western powers by, inter alia, even offering to host American and Australian troops in strategically-located facilities.

By every measure, China is the dominant party in the South China Sea disputes. Its annual defense spending ($314 billion in 2024) is 50 times larger than that of the Philippines' ($6.1 billion in 2024). Not to mention, China not only boasts a far larger standing army, but also multiple fifth generation fighter jets, multiple aircraft carriers, and among the world's largest navies. The Philippines is yet to possess even a full-fledged fourth-generation fighter jet, while only recently acquiring more modern mid-sized warships.

Eager to close the yawning gap, the Southeast Asian nation is drawing in Western powers and leveraging defense aid from and cooperation with a wide range of likeminded Indo-Pacific nations. Manila's attempts at enhancing its own defense capabilities, however, has spooked China, which worries about a U.S.-led containment strategy. What seems to have further enraged Beijing, however, is Manila's increasingly unambiguous embrace of a U.S.-led strategy on Taiwan, especially as the Pentagon expands military presence and drills across northern Philippines.

The upshot is a dangerous strategic deadlock. Moving forward, the two countries should pursue confidential-building measures, drawing on the “provisional agreement” experiment in the contested Second Thomas Shoal, where Filipino and Chinese officials created hot-lines and mutual notification mechanisms. Both sides should also refrain from deploying warships and/or conducting massive wargames in the area, thus limiting any maritime contestation to their civilian coast guard forces.

To avoid any misinterpretation, Manila should also calibrate its language on the Taiwan issue – an extremely sensitive issue for Beijing – by, at the very least, refraining from openly declaring any potential involvement in any military contingency against China. On its part, Beijing should understand that the Philippines will have to prepare for any potential conflict to its immediate north. And it's natural for weaker neighbors to seek help from powerful nations to balance the scale in the South China Sea.

With Manila set to assume ASEAN chairmanship, and top world leaders expected to visit the Philippines next year, it's high time to not only expand bilateral Philippine-China dialogue but also to double down on Code of Conduct negotiations in the South China Sea. There is no magic bullet for the seemingly intractable disputes, but Manila and Beijing have a shared responsibility in de-escalating tensions as well as mitigating their current security dilemma with diplomatic finesse in the interest of regional peace and security.

[1] Based on conversations with top Filipino admirals and maritime officials shortly after the incident.