The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sparked concerns about the future of U.S.-China research collaboration. A second Trump administration may prioritize shifting geopolitical strategies, national security concerns and the reduction of dependence on China in critical technologies. Such policies would likely influence the scope and dynamics of scientific cooperation between the two nations and affect various high-impact research fields and thus the global scientific landscape.
High-tech research
High-tech fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing are at the heart of U.S.-China research tensions. During Trump's first term as president, he implemented restrictions on Chinese technology companies on grounds that they posed national security risks. Companies such as Huawei and academic partnerships with Chinese institutions faced increased scrutiny, with many universities tightening policies on talent exchanges and shared research initiatives. A renewed Trump administration might reinstate or even amplify these restrictions, further limiting joint efforts in AI and quantum research.
Such measures could stymie the progress of collaborative advancements in foundational technologies that are critical for both national security and economic growth. Joint research initiatives, which often rely on international talent, risk being curtailed, which would mean slower innovation and isolated development trajectories for both countries. This divide could extend to talent pipelines, with Chinese researchers potentially facing even greater hurdles in securing visas for U.S.-based research positions.
Biotech and health sciences
Biotechnology and health sciences represent another area of extensive collaboration that could face headwinds under the Trump administration. Areas such as genomics, drug development and infectious disease research have historically benefited from U.S.-China cooperation, as exemplified by joint efforts to combat COVID-19 during the early stages of the pandemic. However, concerns about data security and intellectual property rights have already led to heightened caution in these partnerships.
If the Trump administration were to intensify restrictions, it could hinder collaboration on critical issues such as pandemic preparedness, cancer research and biomedical innovation. For instance, joint ventures aimed at developing cutting-edge therapies or vaccines might face regulatory barriers, potentially delaying global health advancements. At the same time, reduced cooperation could lead to fragmented responses to future global health crises, undermining efforts to mitigate pandemics and other transnational health challenges.
Trump's announcement that he would pull the United States out of the World Health Organization on the first day of his second term signals a shift toward a more unilateral approach, potentially adding further strain to global health collaboration.
Climate science and renewable energy
Climate science and renewable energy have historically been pillars of international cooperation, driven by the shared imperative of addressing climate change. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, scientific exchanges in these fields have persisted. However, the Trump administration's past skepticism toward climate policies — culminating in the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris agreement in 2017 — ignited concerns about the future of U.S.-China climate research and funding. This concern was reinforced with Trump's announcement of withdrawal from the Paris agreement again.
If similar attitudes prevail during a second Trump term, joint initiatives on renewable energy technologies, carbon capture and climate modeling could become lower priorities. Such setbacks would not only stall bilateral progress but also undermine global efforts to combat climate change. On the other hand, maintaining collaboration in these areas would make them critical platforms for fostering dialogue and easing broader geopolitical tensions. Science diplomacy has the potential to bridge divides.
Aerospace: Barriers to cooperation
In the aerospace sector, U.S.-China collaboration has been historically limited by legislative measures such as the Wolf Amendment, which prohibits NASA from engaging directly with Chinese entities. A second Trump administration may introduce further restrictions, particularly targeting private-sector partnerships. While this approach might align with national security priorities, it risks isolating the U.S. from emerging opportunities in global space exploration and innovation.
For example, China's growing advancements in lunar exploration and space station development could outpace U.S. progress in some areas if collaboration opportunities are further restricted. While competition can drive innovation, a lack of knowledge exchange could hinder broader advancements in space technology and exploration.
Escalating export controls
Semiconductors and advanced manufacturing remain at the heart of U.S.-China competition. During Trump's first term, export controls were implemented to restrict China's access to cutting-edge semiconductor technologies, including advanced chips and manufacturing tools. A second Trump administration could expand these measures, further limiting opportunities for joint research and development on next-generation semiconductors.
Such policies could disrupt global supply chains and innovation ecosystems. U.S.-based companies might encounter diminished access to the Chinese market, while Chinese companies might intensify their efforts to achieve technological self-sufficiency. This sort of decoupling runs the risk of creating parallel technological ecosystems, driving up costs and reducing efficiency across industries worldwide that depend on semiconductors.
Social sciences and humanities
Research cooperation on international relations, global governance and policy studies could also be affected by a renewed Trump administration. Heightened geopolitical competition could lead to increased scrutiny — and chilling — of academic exchanges involving politically sensitive topics, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and human rights. Scholars might face self-censorship or institutional pressures to avoid contentious areas of research, thereby limiting academic dialogue and mutual understanding.
In addition, universities and research institutions may impose stricter guidelines for collaborations with Chinese counterparts to avoid potential scrutiny from policymakers. This cautious approach could discourage joint studies on global governance frameworks, further reducing opportunities for constructive dialogue.
Broad national security concerns
National security considerations have already shaped U.S.-China academic relations in recent years, with measures such as the China Initiative targeting potential espionage risks in research collaborations. Whether a renewed Trump administration would intensify such efforts remains uncertain, but it could result in heightened scrutiny of Chinese scholars and additional barriers for research institutions working with China.
This increased vigilance could have unintended negative consequences, including a diminished international talent pool and a more fragmented global research landscape. Moreover, perceived hostility might deter collaboration even in fields where national security risks are minimal, further narrowing the scope of U.S.-China scientific engagement and limiting opportunities for global innovation.
Implications for collaboration
While some level of U.S.-China scientific and academic cooperation is likely to continue, the overall trajectory will depend on policy decisions and the broader bilateral relationship. Increased restrictions could lead to fewer joint conferences, reduced knowledge exchange and a decline in mutual understanding. Such trends may not affect just bilateral relations but also undermine global scientific progress in addressing shared challenges, from pandemics to climate change.
On the other hand, areas of mutual interest, such as public health and renewable energy, could serve as opportunities for continued engagement. These collaborations, if maintained, might provide a foundation for rebuilding trust and fostering dialogue amid broader geopolitical tensions.
In conclusion, the Trump administration poses significant challenges for the future of U.S.-China research cooperation. While certain fields may endure or even thrive, others are likely to encounter heightened scrutiny or restrictions driven by shifting national security priorities and intensified geopolitical competition. The repercussions of these dynamics will extend beyond bilateral relations, shaping the global scientific landscape in profound ways. Striking a balance between addressing security concerns and fostering international collaboration will be essential to ensuring that scientific progress continues to serve the greater good of humanity.
