6月9日,五年一度的欧洲议会大选落幕，亲欧洲、中右立场的欧洲人民党党团保住第一大党团位置，但疑欧主义色彩浓厚的极右翼政党选票增长势头迅猛，特别是在法国和德国这两个欧盟核心国家分别成为选举排名第一和第二的政党。欧洲政治右倾化使包括法德在内的欧洲主要国家领导人陷入信任危机，也会减少中国与欧洲在共同应对气候变化、维护经济全球化和加强全球治理等领域的共同语言。

极右政党崛起

欧洲政治右倾最主要的表现是极右政党崛起，成为一支足以在欧洲政坛对主流政党构成严重威胁的政治力量。目前，极右政党已经在意大利、匈牙利、斯洛伐克和荷兰作为最主要政党领导联合政府，芬兰、克罗地亚和捷克的执政联盟中也有极右政党。此次欧洲议会选举，中左和自由派政党议席大幅减少，极右翼党团席位却有所增加，两个极右党团——欧洲保守派和改革主义者党团、“身份与民主”党团共赢下130个欧洲议员议席，比上一届增加12席，如果再加上持相同意识形态但没有参与任何党团的德国选择党和奥尔班的匈牙利青年联盟议员，极右翼在欧洲议会中的总议席很可能超过150席，成为仅次于中右色彩的人民党党团的第二大力量，其议席加总超过720个总议席的20%。

此外，法国、德国、比利时、奥地利、荷兰等多个欧盟国家的极右翼政党在本届欧洲议会选举中的得票率均领先于执政党。在法国，勒庞领导的极右翼国民联盟赢得31.5%的选票，而法国总统马克龙的复兴党只有14.5%，未到国民联盟的一半。在德国，极右翼的德国选择党（AfD）的得票率高达15.6%，仅次于中右的基督教民主联盟的30.3%，但高于德国总理朔尔茨本人所在的社会民主党（SPD）的14.1%。比利时极右翼的两个弗拉芒党成为得票率第一和第三政党，两党都主张比利时北部说荷兰语的弗拉芒地区获得更大行政独立性，对待移民要采取更严厉立场，同时对气候变化政治持反对态度。

尽管主流政党欧洲人民党党团、社民党党团和复兴欧洲党团仍在欧洲议会占据多数席位（加总406席，超过半数所需的360席），极右政党相互之间也不团结，但极右政党已使移民、气候变化成为欧洲政治的焦点议题，它们所强调的经济增长疲软和民众生活成本问题也成为欧洲主流政治人物无法忽视的决策考量因素，欧洲政治向右转的趋势明显。

欧洲领导力危机

此次欧洲议会选举之后，极右政党影响力开始从原来欧洲的边缘和中小国家走入欧洲核心。法国总统马克龙鉴于自己的复兴党在选举中的糟糕表现，在国民联盟威逼下于6月9日宣布解散国民议会，并将在6月底和7月初举行两轮选举，选出新一届国民议会、总理和内阁。中右翼政党共和党已同极右翼的国民联盟结盟，而法国现代政治史上以前从未有传统主流政党与极右政党结盟的先例。民调显示，国民联盟的支持率达到34%，而马克龙阵营支持率只有19%，国民联盟将在法国议会选举中获胜。如果事实符合民调预测，国民联盟的候选人、年仅28岁的巴尔代拉将担任法国新总理，同马克龙形成“左右共治”格局，马克龙在经济社会领域的权力将被大大削弱。

德国朔尔茨领导的“红绿灯”联合政府（社民党、自民党、绿党的执政联盟）在欧洲议会选举中的表现比马克龙更差，社民党得票率创下历史最差成绩，但朔尔茨拒绝解散政府提前举行大选，表示德国与法国的政治体制不同，执政联盟要坚持等到明年任期届满时再举行联邦议会选举。英国7月4日即将举行大选，据英国权威民调机构YouGov近期民调结果，执政党保守党已落后反对党工党19个百分点，支持率仅为18%，工党的支持率高达37%。保守党受欢迎程度甚至低于由脱欧党改造而来的“改革英国”党，该党的支持率为19%。预计连续执政14年的保守党将迎来“世纪惨败”，苏纳克难逃下台命运。

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的连任之路相对顺畅，她是欧洲议会最大党团——欧洲人民党党团推荐的“领衔候选人”，近期又成功使法国总统马克龙和德国总理朔尔茨改变了对她的态度，再加上美国拜登政府原本对她就青睐有加，预计可在6月底的欧盟理事会峰会和7月中的欧洲议会信任票投票中过关。在米歇尔表示将卸任欧盟理事会主席职位后，葡萄牙前总理安东尼奥·科斯塔是该职位的有力候选人，爱沙尼亚总理卡娅·卡拉斯则可能接替博雷利，担任欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表。

对中欧关系的可能影响

欧洲政治右倾、法德领导人陷入领导力危机和冯德莱恩连任欧盟委员会主席意味着欧盟未来政策取向的地缘政治化恐将愈演愈烈，其在贸易和投资领域的“防御工具箱”还会进一步扩充，将中欧经济相互依赖关系“武器化”和“泛政治化”“泛安全化”的行为会进一步增多，冯德莱恩提出的对华“去风险”操作也会延续一段时间，对此中国应有一定的心理准备。另外，在右翼势力的压力下，欧盟可能会调整其既定的应对全球气候变化的目标承诺，增加对外转嫁其减排责任的关税和非关税手段，这无疑也会削减中欧之间已经不多的全球共识和共同语言。

As a result of the resounding victories of right-wing parties, leadership crises in France and Germany and the potential re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, geopolitical factors are expected to feature prominently in the European Union's policy orientation. As its defense toolbox in trade and investment is enhanced, attempts to mix China-EU economic interdependence with political and security issues may increase.On June 9, voting to elect members of the European Parliament concluded. The pro-European, center-right European People's Party has retained its dominance, but far-right parties noted for their Euroscepticism have made significant gains. In France and Germany, two main players within the EU, far-right parties have emerged as the largest and second-largest political groups. This political shift to the right has plunged leaders of major EU countries into a trust crisis that threatens to undermine the consensus between Europe and China on major global issues, such as climate change, globalization and world peace.

Rise of the far right

In Europe, the shift to the right is most evident in the rise of far-right political parties, which now pose a serious threat to the dominance of mainstream parties. From Italy to Hungary, from Slovakia to the Netherlands, these parties have led coalition governments as the largest political force. They are also part of the coalition governments in Finland, Croatia and the Czech Republic. In the European Parliament election this year, center-right and liberal parties lost a significant number of seats; in contrast, far-right parties, led by the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR) and Identity and Democracy Group (ID), won a total of 130 seats, up by 12 from the previous election. If the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Viktor Orban's Freedom Party (Hungary), which share the same far-right ideologies but are not affiliated with any parliamentary group, are taken into account, far-right parties would have more than 150 seats (20 percent of the 720 seats) — the second-largest voting bloc after the center-right EPP parliamentary group in the European Parliament.

In the European Parliament election, far-right parties won more seats than the ruling parties in many countries, including France, Germany, Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands. In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally won 31.5 percent of the vote, while Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance (14.5 percent) was less than half of that. In Germany, the AfD won 15.6 percent of the votes, second only to the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (30.3 percent) and higher than Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (14.1 percent). In Belgium, two far-right Flemish parties gained the most and third-most votes. Both advocate more administrative independence for the northern Dutch-speaking regions in the country and harsher immigration policies. They stand against climate change policies.

Although mainstream parties such as the EPP, SPD and Renew Europe still hold the majority, far-right parties have managed to bring immigration and climate change to the forefront of European politics, despite their lack of unity. Their constant emphasis on sluggish economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis makes it difficult for major European political leaders to ignore these issues in their decision-making. This shift toward the right is well underway across the political landscape of Europe.

European leadership crisis

Following the recent election, the influence of far-right parties has spread from small and peripheral countries to central regions in Europe. In light of his party's heavy defeat in elections for the European Parliament and under heavy pressure from the far-right National Rally, President Macron decided on June 9 to dissolve the National Assembly and launch two rounds of national elections starting from the end of June to early July to form a new National Assembly and elect a new prime minister.The center-right Republican Party has forged an alliance with the RN, setting a precedent in modern French political history in which a mainstream party allies with a far-right party. Current opinion polls show that with an approval rating of 34 percent, the RN could take the lead in the French parliamentary election. In contrast, Macron's party earned just 19 percent. If the poll prediction materialized, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, would serve as the new prime minister and form a coalition with Macron, which would significantly decrease the president's influence on economic and social issues.

In Germany, the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Free Democratic Party and the Greens), led by Chancellor Scholz fared even worse than Macon's party in the European Parliament election, with SDP recording the worst vote share in its history. However, Scholz refused to dissolve the Bundestag and hold elections, stressing that the German and French political systems are different and that the ruling coalition will stay in power until its term ends.In the United Kingdom, the general election kicked off on June 4. According to the latest polling by YouGov, the ruling Conservative Party lags behind the opposition Labour Party by 19 points (18 percent vs. 37 percent). The Conservative Party (19 percent) was even worse off than Reform UK (previously Brexit Party). The Conservatives might be booted from power after 14 years running the government, and Rishi Sunak stepped down.

The re-election of von der Leyen as European Commission president seems relatively straightforward. She is the candidate of choice for the EPP, the largest political party group in the European Parliament. She convincingly transformed Macron's and Scholz's perception of her, won the favor of the Biden administration in the United States and was widely expected to win the vote of confidence in the European Council in late June and in the European Parliament in July.After President of the European Council Charles Michel announced his resignation, former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will take up the seat in December. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will succeed Josep Borrell Fontelles as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Impacts on China-EU relations

As a result of the resounding victories of right-wing parties, leadership crises in France and Germany and the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, geopolitical factors are expected to feature prominently in the European Union's policy orientation. As its defense toolbox in trade and investment is enhanced, attempts to mix China-EU economic ties with political and security issues may increase, and the de-risking initiative proposed by von der Leyen may continue in the long run. China should be fully prepared.Additionally, under the pressure of far-right parties, the European Union may adjust its stated climate goals and transfer its emissions reduction responsibility to other countries through tariffs and non-tariff measures. All these developments will undoubtedly undermine the already scarce China-EU consensus on global issues.