近期，美国国内新冠肺炎疫情加剧，成为确诊病例最多的国家。面对疫情急剧发展，特朗普政府采取的一系列防控举措不断受到质疑，对其“应对不力”的指责不绝于耳。但就是在这种情况下，特朗普的民意支持率近期却持续攀升。美国著名民意调查机构盖洛普3月最后一周的民调显示，特朗普的执政支持率达到49%，不仅高于其任内40%的平均支持率，创下任内最高民意支持，也比3月初美国疫情开始大规模扩散之时的支持率攀升了6-9个百分点。

面对严峻的疫情冲击，以及由此导致的股市巨幅震荡、社会“封闭”，特朗普的支持率不降反升，主要是以下因素使然：

首先，美国政治中长期存在的“聚旗效应”仍在发挥作用。“聚旗效应”是指国家在面临战争或危机的时候，领导人往往能在一定时期内获得较正常时期更高的民意支持度。美国历史上，1979年伊朗扣押美国使馆人员、1991年海湾战争爆发、2001年“911”事件等重大危机事件出现后，时任美国总统的民意支持度均有不同幅度的攀升。此类危机出现后，民众往往倾向于减少对总统及其执政的批评，转而更加正面地看待总统所发挥的作用，更加看重其在领导国家共克时艰方面所展现的核心角色。在当前的疫情危机背景下，特朗普虽然具有非典型的总统执政风格，但其通过宣扬作为“战时总统”的角色，更广泛地使用总统行政权展示强力形象，仍然获得了美国民众在危机时期的特殊支持。

其次，疫情期间特朗普近乎独享媒体曝光度，这也有利于其获得更高民意支持。疫情爆发以来，美国国内政经及文体娱乐活动基本陷于停滞，民主党在大选年的党内初选和造势活动被迫中止。而特朗普颇为精明地利用了这一时机，自3月中旬开始便亲自带领一众高级官员出席白宫每日新闻发布会，发布会有时长达两小时，成为全美关注焦点。在全美2亿多民众“封闭”在家的情况下，疫情之外的话题很难吸引民众关注，特朗普作为在任总统独享媒体曝光度，显然对其争取民众支持具有相当大的特殊优势。

第三，尽管不断面临批评和质疑，但特朗普近期一系列疫情防控举措仍然获得了很多美国民众的认可，尤其是得到共和党人的高度支持。随着疫情发展，特朗普先后推出对欧洲的旅行禁令，宣布国家进入紧急状态，发布应对疫情的全民指南，高调表态向受疫情影响的民众发放现金支票，以及援引《国防生产法》要求通用等公司生产防疫物资等。在相当多民众看来，特朗普上述举措在一定程度上弥补了其在疫情初期的决策失误。美国广播公司近期民调显示，55%的民众认可特朗普的防控工作，43%不认可。盖洛普的民调则显示，3月2-13日，成年民众对特朗普防控举措的认可度为44%，3月13至22日认可度攀升至49%。在此期间，共和党人对特朗普的认可度高达92%，中间选民的认可度由35%升至43%，即便是民主党人的认可度也增加了6个百分点。作为近期知名度颇高的几位民主党州长，包括纽约州州长安德鲁·科莫、加州州长加文·纽瑟姆、华盛顿州州长杰伊·英斯利等人，虽与特朗普争执不断，但其对特朗普的相关举措总体上也予认可，争执点更多是希望特朗普的政策能与各州协商并给予各州政府更大物资支持。

值得关注的是，特朗普近期支持率的攀升幅度仍明显落后于历史上多次危机期间总统支持率的攀升幅度。1979年伊朗扣押美国使馆人员后，卡特政府所获支持率一度增加了29个百分点，达到61%。海湾战争爆发后，老布什的支持率高达89%。“911”后，小布什的支持率一度由55%增至90%。当前疫情对美国的冲击程度丝毫不亚于前面几次危机，而特朗普所获民意支持率的提升与其前任们相比显然差距明显。美国近年来政治极化和两党恶斗不止，是造成这种差距的主要原因。根据盖洛普民调数据，对于特朗普防控工作的认可度，共和党为92%，而民主党仅为13%，成为批评特朗普应对疫情不力的主要力量。

近期特朗普民意支持率的攀升，也并不意味着其连任的可能性在上升。很多认可特朗普防控举措的民众，对其总体政治观点和执政风格仍然不能苟同。未来美国疫情的发展态势以及由此引发的经济社会矛盾，将是影响特朗普能否连任的关键变量。

The United States now has more confirmed COVID-19 cases than any other country. With the rapid spread of the virus, numerous questions have been raised about President Donald Trump's responses to the pandemic, which have been criticized by many as inadequate.Yet Trump's approval rating got an upward bump to 49 percent in mid- to late-March, according to a Gallup poll, before sliding back to 43 percent in the April 1-14 poll — a slippage of 6 percentage points.Trump's approval at the end of March was not only higher than his 40 percent average for his term but also the highest since he took office. It was also 6 to 9 percentage points higher than it was in early March, when COVID-19 began to spread on a massive scale in the U.S.

Amid the pandemic and the resulting huge stock market shocks and massive social isolation, Trump's approval rating rose instead of being pulled down, mainly because of the following:

• First, the “rally around the flag effect,” a long-standing presence in U.S. politics, which is still in play.The effect describes the phenomenon of the leader getting more popular support in time of war or crisis. American history has ample examples in this regard, such as the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis, the 1991 Gulf War and the 911 terrorist attacks. During these crises, people tended to reduce criticism of the president and his administration, adopt a more positive view of the role of the president and place a greater emphasis on the centrality of the president in leading the country through difficult times.In the current crisis, Trump, with his atypical style, has used the executive power extensively to project a strong image as a wartime president, gaining support in the crisis, at least temporarily.

• Second, Trump has enjoyed extensive media exposure since the start of the pandemic, which has helped him to gain more public support.As domestic political, economic, cultural and entertainment activities stalled and the Democratic Party had to postpone its primary election and publicity campaigns, Trump has shrewdly seized the opportunity. He has been appearing since mid-March at the daily White House news conferences, which can last longer than two hours, with a group of senior officials, attracting attention from the whole country.With more than 200 million people staying at home, the pandemic is the prime topic. The sitting president's exclusive media exposure offers him a special advantage.

• Third, despite criticism and skepticism, Trump's recent efforts to prevent and control the pandemic have won the approval of many Americans, especially Republicans.As the pandemic unfolded, he introduced a travel ban on Europe, declared a state of emergency, issued nationwide guidelines, made a high-profile announcement on cash payments for affected people and invoked the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of medical supplies by General Motors and other companies.For a large part of the public, these have made up for some of his mistakes in the early days of the pandemic. A recent ABC poll found that 55 percent of the public approved of Trump's work and 43 percent did not. A Gallup poll showed that the adult population's approval rate climbed from 44 percent on March 2 to 49 percent from March 13 to 22. During that period, Trump received a 92 percent approval from Republicans and 43 percent from self-described moderate voters.Even the approval rating from Democrats increased by 6 percentage points. Several Democratic governors, including New York's Andrew Cuomo, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Washington Governor Jay Inslee, who have recently gained popularity and been at frequent odds with Trump, generally support the president's initiatives. Their focus has been more on greater federal-state consultation and more material support to the states.

It's worth noting that even Trump's positive performance in approval ratings still lags significantly behind that of previous presidents during the many crises in history. In the face of the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis, the Jimmy Carter administration's approval rating rose 29 percentage points to 61 percent. The Gulf War gave President George H.W. Bush an approval rating of 89 percent, and the 911 attacks pushed George W. Bush's approval rating from 55 percent to 90 percent.The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. in ways no less hard than previous crises, but Trump's gap with his predecessors in approval ratings has been apparent. Political polarization and bitter partisan fights in recent years are the main reason. According to Gallup, 92 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of Democrats approve of Trump's response to the pandemic. In other words, the Democratic Party has been Trump's leading critic.

A short-term spike in popularity may not mean a higher chance of re-election for Trump. Many current supporters still disagree with his overall political views and style. Future developments with the pandemic and its accompanying economic and social conflicts will be key variables for Trump's re-election prospects.