中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会召开前夕，学界研究和媒体报道都把焦点集中在习近平个人或中共内部不同派系的权力斗争上。然而，习近平再次当选为中共中央总书记，并不会从根本上带来太多政策转变。在过去五年中，习近平推出了多个政治计划，而在其执政的第二个任期中，习必须开始启动并加速推进这些计划的实施。为了更好地理解中国未来的发展方向，审视习近平提拔的、在未来五年贯彻其战略的官员们至关重要。

习近平用人的大趋势是什么？简单来说，就是科技官僚卷土重来，并在中国经济发展战略中扮演关键角色。但这次，他们并非来自诸如石油或机械制造等传统产业，而是来自高科技或所谓的战略新兴产业。通过将先进的军事科技应用于民间领域，并将军事工业与本土经济发展融合，这些官员将在未来十年为中国经济发展创造新引擎。为达成目标、追赶美国，中国向军事工业投入了巨额资源，积累了大量先端科技储备。一些专家认为，军事工业甚至可能成为中国未来科技创新的主要动力，以及推动经济发展的主导力量。

科技两用最著名的例子就是北斗卫星导航系统的商用化。北斗卫星导航系统由中国国家航天局于1994年开始研制，旨在结束中国对由美国空军运营的全球定位系统（GPS）的依赖。自2011年起，北斗卫星导航系统开始用于快速增长的卫星导航商业领域。在中国境内，越来越多的公共汽车、轮船、智能手机和共享单车开始使用北斗卫星导航系统。截至2016年，北斗卫星导航系统在商业导航领域的市场份额达到了30%，市场价值高达2000亿元人民币。目前北斗卫星导航系统只覆盖中国境内和几个周边国家，但中国计划到2018年向“一带一路”倡议沿线国家提供导航服务。一旦所有35台卫星全部投入使用，北斗卫星导航系统将覆盖全球。到那时，中国境内的北斗卫星导航系统将超过全球定位系统，其市场份额将增长至60%。

未来十年，中国最大的科技提供者很可能是航空航天业。该行业已经成功完成了一些大型国家项目，如月球探测工程（又名嫦娥工程）和载人航天工程（又名神州飞船工程）。为了理解习近平如何高度重视这些工程及负责工程的官员们，我们只需看一下这些技术官僚的仕途发展轨迹就明白了。黑龙江省省委书记、中国人民解放军中央军委装备发展部部长以及广东省省长（分别为张庆伟、李尚福和马兴瑞）曾分别担任无人绕月探测工程嫦娥一号、嫦娥二号和嫦娥三号的总指挥。浙江省省长（袁家军）曾担任神州载人飞船工程总指挥。中央军民融合发展委员会办公室常务副主任（金壮龙）曾担任中国首个自主研发的大型喷气式客机C919项目总指挥。这些官员还曾在国有机构中国航天科技集团公司和中国商用飞机有限责任公司担任过要职。中国航天科技集团公司的著名产品包括神州飞船和长征火箭，而中国商用飞机有限责任公司则是中国大型喷气式客机C919的研发者和制造商。

由航空航天专家转型的技术官员在位时间比较短，还无法通过促进军事科技与民用科技融合发展来证明自身能力。自2016年以来，很多地方政府——尤其是上海、湖南、四川和河北——已经出台计划，推动军事科技用于地方经济发展。在这些省份中，湖南设定了最具雄心的增长目标：军事科技用于民用产品带来的年经济增长率要达到15%。

航空航天专家的崛起也可以部分地解释为中共内部权力斗争的结果。这些官员都在一定程度上与“派系政治”保持着距离，这令他们更倾向于效忠最高领导。当然，仅有忠心是不够的，这些官员必须能够胜任各自的职责。这些航空航天专家拥有技术知识和在大型企业的工作经历，以及广泛的行政管理经验。与其他官员相比，这些技术官僚被认为是目标导向型，拥有不可或缺的解决问题能力，以及“作出必要但不受欢迎决策”的意愿。习近平的计划将在很大程度上令诸如中国航天科技集团或中国商用飞机有限责任公司这样的大型国有企业受益。然而，这些任命也透露出习近平在他担任中共中央总书记第二个任期内想要达成哪些目标。

本文原载于《中国政策研究所：分析》（China Policy Institute: Analysis）

In the run up to the 19th Party Congress, both academic studies and media coverage focused either on Xi Jinping or the power struggle between different factions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The re-election of Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the CCP, however, will not lead to much fundamental policy change. In the past five years, numerous political programs have already been adopted, and in the second term he must launch and speed up the implementation of these programs. To understand the future direction of China, it is crucial to look at the officials he has already appointed to oversee his strategy for the next five years.

What is the overarching trend of Xi Jinping's appointments? Put simply, the technocrats are back and have taken over key positions in China's economic development strategy. But this time they no longer come from traditional industries such as the petroleum or mechanical engineering, but from high-tech industries or the so-called strategic new industries. These officials aim to create a new engine force for the coming decade by applying advanced military technology to civilian fields and integrating the military industry into local economic development. To achieve these goals, China has put a large amount of resources into the military industry and has accumulated highly advanced technology in order to catch up with the United States. Some experts believe that the military industry might even become the main source of China's future technological innovation and a leading force for economic growth.

The most well-known adoption of dual-use technologies is the commercialization of the BeiDou Satellite Navigation System, which was initiated in 1994 by the China National Space Administration (CNSA) and aimed to end the reliance on the US Global Positioning System (GPS) operated by the US Air Force. Since 2011 when BeiDou opened the door to the rapidly expanding commercial use of satellite navigation, more and more buses, ships, smartphones and bike sharers within China have been using the Beidou Navigation services. By 2016, its market share had reached 30% of the commercial navigation sector, which had a total volume of 200 billion RMB. Beidou only covers China and several neighboring countries, but China plans to provide navigation service to the countries along the 'Belt and Road' by 2018. Once all 35 satellites are in operation, the Beidou System will have worldwide coverage. Until then, the market share of Beidou Navigation System within China should exceed that of GPS and reach about 60% of market share.

The largest technology provider in the next ten years will likely be the aerospace industry. This industry has already carried out various national mega projects such as the Lunar Exploration Program (also known as Chang'e Program) and the Manned Space Program (Shenzhou Program). To understand how highly Xi values these projects and the officials responsible, one need only look at the career trajectories of the technocrats in charge. The party secretary of Heilongjiang, the head of PLA's general armament department, and the Governor of Guangdong (Zhang Qingwei, Li Shangfu, and Ma Xingrui respectively) were former chief commanders of Chang'e 1, Chang'e 2 and Chang'e 3, the unmanned lunar-orbiting spacecraft. The Governor of Zhejiang (Yuan Jiajun) was the chief commander for the Shenzhou Program. And the Acting Deputy Director of Bureau for Central Civil-Military Integration Commission (Guo Jinlong) was previously the chief commander of the C919 Project, the first passenger jetliner developed by Chinese engineers. The above named officials were also GeneralManagers of the state-owned concerns China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) and China Commercial Aircraft(COMAC). The well-known products of CASIC include the Shenzhou spacecraft and the Long March rocket, while COMAC is the developer and manufacturer of the C919.

Table indicating complete list of positions held by the above mentioned individuals:The aerospace experts are not long in power and still have to prove their competency by advancing the integration of military and civilian technological development. Since 2016 many local governments – particularly Shanghai, Hunan, Sichuan and Hebei – have worked out plans to improve the integration of dual-use technologies into the local economy. Of these provinces, Hunan has the most ambitious growth target – an annual 15% increase in the value of gross output in terms of adoption of dual-use technologies in civilian products.

The rise of the aerospace expert can be explained by the internal power struggles within the CCP. These officials have a certain 'detachment from factional politics', which makes them more likely to be loyal to the top leadership. But of course loyalty is not enough. The leading officials must also be competent. These aerospace experts have technological know-how, experience with large corporations and extensive administrative management. In comparison with other officials, the technocrats are considered to be goal-oriented, have essential problem-solving skills and also a willingness 'to make necessary but unpopular decisions'. Xi Jinping's plans will mostly benefit the large national corporations such as CASIC or COMAC. Still, these appointments give an indication of what Xi Jinping intends to do in his second term as General Secretary.