随着林郑月娥上周末当选香港首位女特首，“大中华区”三部分（大陆、台湾和香港）当中如今已有两个由女性领导。三连中是不可能的，中华人民共和国在可预见的未来由一位女性领导，得出现奇迹才行。然而，在世界许多地方男性主导政治领导的现象受到挑战的今天，中国公众可能会对中国政治精英的性别失衡给予更多的关注。

中国共产党准备在今年秋天举行的第十九次党代会上进行五年一次的领导人换届，所以分析中国女性领导的代表性尤为重要和及时。在376名中央委员中，约七成将离任，以便给新人让贤。中央政治局及权力遮天的政治局常务委员会也会有同样高比例的更换。当此重要关头，中国精英政治中女性领导的现状如何？前景如何？最高领导机构中女性领导的比例会在十九大增加吗？哪位女性新星正走向中国政治的顶层？

1949年建国以来，中国当局总在宣称中共十分关注妇女问题。然而在党的领导层中，妇女的代表性一直可以忽略不计。除了1973年的十大和1977年的十一大，妇女占中央委员总人数中的比例从来没有超过一成。只有少数女性进入过中央政治局，其中大多还是最高领导人的夫人，如江青（毛泽东夫人）、叶群（林彪夫人）和邓颖超（周恩来夫人）。在中共历史上，从来没有女性进入政治局常委。

本届政治局（2012年十八大组建）至少包括两位女性——副总理刘延东（1945生）和中央统战部部长孙春兰（1950年生），这也是文化大革命结束以来的首次。即使如此，中央委员会（包括中央委员和候补委员，译者注）中女性比例还是从第十七届的10%下降到第十八届的8.8%，中央委员中女性比例下降更显著，从上届的13人（6.4%）减少到本届的10人（4.9%）。

由于年龄限制，至少有一位（刘延东）或两位现任女政治局委员将在十九大后退休。其他八位女性中央委员中，前司法部长吴爱英（1951年生）已经退休，人大常委会副委员长沈跃跃（1957年生）和全国妇联副主席宋秀岩（1955年生）都是有共青团背景的团派干部，她们一度都是冉冉升起的新星，但由于不利的派系身份，她们现在鲜有机会继续高升了。

其他四位委员所在的领导岗位都不是传统的政治进身之阶，她们是中华全国供销合作总社理事会主任王侠（1954年生）、中国文联党组书记赵实（1953年生）、中国作协主席铁凝（1957年生）和最高人民检察院常务副检察长胡泽君（1955年生）。而且，赵实和胡泽君也是团派干部，这使她们的上升机会更加渺茫。

在目前的中央委员中，十九大上唯一有可能进入政治局的女候选人也许是国家卫生和计划生育委员会主任李斌（1954年生）。李斌是满族人，早年曾在吉林省当教师，后任吉林省副省长和安徽省省长。在国务院的25位部长中，李斌目前是唯一女性。人们普遍认为李斌是李克强总理的门下。

在第十八届中央委员会的23位女候补委员中，有些人已经只有象征性职位，一人（前北京市委副书记吕锡文，1955年生）最近因贪腐指控被清除。这些候补委员大多在同一省份或同一部门工作多年，这意味着她们的位置不利于快速升迁，升得快通常需要更频繁地转换岗位，要有更多的领导阅历。

当然也有例外。比如湖南省委副书记乌兰（1962年生）2016年任现职前，曾历任内蒙古自治区共青团委书记、区政府副主席和宣传部长。新被任命为全国妇联书记处书记的夏杰（1960年生）曾在黑龙江任省委组织部副部长和统战部部长（她主要是获得了时任省长栗战书的提拔），之后她出任河南省委组织部部长。新的宁夏回族自治区主席咸辉（1958年生）之前任甘肃省常务副省长。有趣的是，所有这些女领导干部都是少数民族。

在中国31个省级政府中，目前没有女性担任省或市的党委书记，而这是进入政治局的最重要阶梯。任省长的只有两位女性：前面提到的咸辉，以及内蒙古自治区主席布小林（1958年生），后者也是少数民族。布小林并不在第十八届中央委员会的23位女性候补委员当中。

随着习近平即将开启作为中共中央总书记的第二任期，许多人预计他会任命大批亲信和志趣相投者担任国家领导职务，以继续巩固他的权力。不意外的是，这些经验丰富且具备良好条件的政治新星绝大多数是男性。这倒不是说习近平和他的团队完全忽视培养有前途的女领导干部的必要性。例如，第十八届中央委员会候补委员、前中国电信研究院院长曹淑敏（1966年生）最近就被任命为江西省鹰潭市委书记、市长。曹淑敏曾推动建设中国第四代移动通信系统（技术上所谓的“时分长期演进”，或TD-LTE）。2017年1月被广泛报道的一则消息称，习近平曾接见曹淑敏，称赞她为中国网络空间发展作出的贡献。由于新获得管理中等城市的领导经验，曹淑敏很可能在不久的将来扮演更重要的领导角色。类似的例子还有清华大学党委书记陈旭（1963年生）。过去十年，陈旭一直是这所享有盛誉和权势的大学（也是习近平的母校）的高层领导，她有望在不久的将来进入国家领导层。

由于中国领导层中可供选择担任更高职务的妇女干部储备有限，第十九届政治局中女性领导的人数不可能有实质性增加。曹淑敏和陈旭今年秋天最多成为中央委员会委员，体制规则与规范会阻碍她们更快地晋升。虽然随着时间推移，中国的党国体制成功包容了更广泛的背景和观点，但在女性领导提升方面，中国仍落后于全球趋势。除非习近平和中共领导层优先考虑积极的体制改革，现在着手解决这一问题，否则女性领导不足将成为未来中国党国体制的一个明显缺陷。

With this past weekend's election of Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (林郑月娥) as Hong Kong's first female chief executive, women now lead two of the three societies making up so-called “Greater China” (the Mainland, Taiwan, and Hong Kong). A trifecta remains unlikely, as it would take a miracle for a woman to become head of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the foreseeable future. Yet, at a time when male-dominance in political leadership is being challenged in many parts of the world, the PRC public is likely to take greater notice of the gender imbalance within China's political elite.

An analysis of the representation of woman leaders in China is particularly important and timely as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares for its once-every-five-years leadership change at the 19th Party Congress this fall. About 70 percent of the 376 members on the Central Committee are expected to depart in order to make way for newcomers. The Politburo and its all-powerful Standing Committee will experience similarly high rates of turnover. At this important juncture, what is the status of –– and what are the prospects for –– women leaders in China's elite politics? Will the percentage of women leaders in top leadership bodies increase at the 19th Party Congress? Which female rising stars are on the path to the upper echelons of Chinese politics?

Since the founding of the PRC in 1949, Chinese authorities have frequently trumpeted the CCP's careful attention to women's issues. However, female representation in the party leadership has generally remained negligible. With the exception of the 10th Party Congress in 1973 and the 11th Party Congress in 1977, women have never made up more than 10 percent of the total membership of the Central Committee. Only a handful of female leaders have ever served in the Politburo. Most were wives of top leaders, such as Jiang Qing (江青, Mao's wife), Ye Qun (叶群, Lin Biao's wife), and Deng Yingchao (邓颖超, Zhou Enlai's wife). Throughout CCP history, no woman has ever served on the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC).

For the first time since the end of the Cultural Revolution, the current Politburo (formed at the 18th Party Congress in 2012) includes at least two women –– the vice-premier, Liu Yandong (刘延东, born in 1945), and the head of the Central United Front Work Department, Sun Chunlan (孙春兰, b. 1950). Even so, female representation decreased from 10 percent on the 17th Central Committee to 8.8 percent on the 18th Central Committee. The decline in female full members was even more significant: from thirteen (6.4 percent) on the last Central Committee to ten (4.9 percent) on the current one.

At least one (Liu Yandong) and perhaps both of the current female Politburo members will retire at the 19th Party Congress due to age limitations. Among the other eight women leaders with full membership on the Central Committee, former minister of justice Wu Aiying (吴爱英,b. 1951) has already retired. Shen Yueyue (沈跃跃, b. 1957), vice chair of the National People's Congress (NPC), and Song Xiuyan (宋秀岩, b. 1955), chair of the All-China Women's Federation, both were once rising stars known as tuanpai officials because of their Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL) backgrounds. But now both of them seem to have little chance for further promotion due to their unfavorable factional identity.

Four other full members all hold leadership posts that are not traditional stepping-stones for further political promotion: Chair of the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives Wang Xia (王侠, b. 1954), Party Secretary of the Chinese Literature and Art Association Zhao Shi (赵实, b. 1953), Chair of the China Writers Association Tie Ying (铁凝,b. 1957) and Executive Deputy Procurator General of the Supreme People's Procuratorate Hu Zejun (胡泽君, b. 1955). In addition, Zhao and Hu are both seen as tuanpai leaders, further dimming their promotion prospects.

Perhaps the only woman candidate among the current full members of the Central Committee who could potentially gain a Politburo seat at the 19th Party Congress is Li Bin (李斌, b. 1954), the minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission. A Manchu, Li Bin advanced her early career as a teacher in Jilin Province and later served as vice governor of Jilin and governor of Anhui. Among the 25 ministers in the State Council, Li Bin is currently the only woman. It has been widely perceived that Li Bin is a protégé of Premier Li Keqiang.

Of the 23 female alternate members of the 18th Central Committee, some have already moved into ceremonial positions and one (former deputy party secretary of Beijing Lu Xiwen, 吕锡文, b. 1955) was recently purged on corruption charges. Most of these alternate members have remained in the same province or have worked in the same sector for many years, meaning that they are poorly positioned for fast-track promotions, which often require more-frequent reshuffling and broader leadership experience.

There are, of course, a few exceptions. For example, Hunan Deputy Party Secretary Wulan (乌兰, b. 1962, Mongolian) advanced her career in Inner Mongolia as CCYL secretary, vice governor, and propaganda head—in that order—before taking her current post in Hunan in 2016. The newly appointed secretary of the All-China Women's Federation, Xia Jie (夏杰,b. 1960, Hui), advanced her early career in Heilongjiang, where she served as deputy head of the Organization Department and head of the United Front Work Department in the Heilongjiang Provincial Party Committee. (She was promoted primarily by then governor Li Zhanshu). She later served as head of the Organization Department of the Henan Provincial Party Committee. The new Ningxia governor, Xian Hui (咸辉, b. 1958, Hui), previously served as executive vice-governor of Gansu. Interestingly enough, all of these female leaders are ethnic minorities.

At present, out of China's 31 provincial level administrations, no woman serves as a provincial or municipal party secretary –– the most important stepping-stone to a Politburo seat. Only two women serve as governors: the aforementioned Xian Hui and the governor of Inner Mongolia, Buxiaolin (布小林,b. 1958), who is also an ethnic minority. Buxiaolin is not among the 23 women who are alternate members of the 18th Central Committee.

As Xi Jinping prepares to begin his second term as general secretary of the CCP, many expect that he will further consolidate his power by appointing numerous protégés and like-minded associates into the national leadership. Unsurprisingly, most of these well-experienced and well-positioned political rising stars are men. This does not necessarily mean Xi and his team have completely ignored the necessity of fostering their own cohort of promising female leaders. For example, Cao Shumin (曹淑敏, b. 1966), an alternate member of the 18th Central Committee and the former president of the China Information and Communication Research Institute, was recently appointed to be mayor and party secretary of Yingtan City, Jiangxi Province. Cao was instrumental in the establishment of China's fourth-generation mobile communication system (technically known as Time Division Long Term Evolution, or TD-LTE). In a highly publicized event in January 2017, Xi Jinping met with Cao and praised her contribution to China's cyber space development. With newly acquired leadership experience in running a medium-sized city, Cao will likely play an even more important leadership role in the near future. A similar example is Chen Xu (陈旭, b. 1963), the party secretary of Tsinghua University. Chen has been a top leader at this highly prestigious and politically powerful university—and Xi Jinping's alma mater—for over a decade, and she is expected to move into the national leadership in the near future.

Given that the CCP leadership has such a limited pool of women leaders from which to choose for higher offices, the number of female leaders in the 19th Politburo is highly unlikely to increase in any significant way. Cao and Chen will, at best, become full members on the Central Committee this fall. Institutional rules and norms prevent them from advancing their careers any faster. Although the PRC party-state system has successfully incorporated a broader range of backgrounds and viewpoints over time, China lags behind global trends in elevating female leaders. Unless Xi and the CCP leadership prioritize vigorous institutional reforms to address this issue now, the insufficient representation of women leaders will remain a notable deficiency of the PRC party-state system for the years to come.