2025年7月28日，巴勒斯坦总理穆罕默德·穆斯塔法在联大发表讲话。一周前，17国、欧盟和阿拉伯联盟签署了《纽约宣言》。（美联社照片）

最近，联合国一个高级别会议敦促以色列承诺支持建立巴勒斯坦国，并“坚定不移地支持”两国方案。这份《纽约宣言》提出一个分阶段实施计划，以结束持续80年的冲突和当前的加沙灾难。

在法国和沙特阿拉伯、欧盟、阿拉伯联盟及其他15个国家的共同主持下，会议期望建立一个独立、非军事化的巴勒斯坦国，与以色列和平共处，并最终融入整个中东地区。

中国上周加入《纽约宣言》。正如外交部发言人郭嘉昆所言：“我们支持任何有助于推动巴勒斯坦问题政治解决的努力，……为最终实现巴勒斯坦问题全面、公正、持久解决作出不懈努力。”

巴勒斯坦乃至整个中东地区正处于关键转折点。几十年来，美国推动的“关系正常化”行动给该地区造成的破坏越来越严重，该地区迫切需要一种由中国和全球南方最大经济体倡导的和平发展模式。

美国的实效中东战略

拜登政府中东计划（即所谓“大交易”）的基础是以特朗普第一届政府的《亚伯拉罕协议》。此前以色列曾与埃及（1979年）和约旦（1994年）签署和平条约，并与巴勒斯坦民族权力机构（1993-95年）签署《奥斯陆协议》，这些协议的前提条件，是以色列同阿拉伯世界特别是阿联酋和巴林实现了关系正常化。美国作为幕后策划者，又分别于2020年9月和2021年1月宣布与摩洛哥和苏丹达成交易。而这笔“大交易”的前提，是中国在中东的贸易投资被边缘化，以及巴勒斯坦人被排挤。

然而，自从加沙冲突、以色列无情轰炸以及拜登支持内塔尼亚胡战争内阁以来，以色列与海湾国家的互信被侵蚀，谈判陷入停滞。某种意义上说，这是美国“实效”中东战略的逻辑效果，与修辞上的外交立场是截然相反的。毕竟，真金白银不是用于和谈，而是军售。

美国是中东所有主要军事大国的武器供应商。对最亲密的盟友（以色列、科威特、沙特），美国提供60%至80%的致命武器进口。在其他国家（阿联酋、伊拉克、卡塔尔），美国占军火总进口的50%至60%。然后是埃及（34%），它的主要供货商是美国的北约盟友（德国、意大利）以及俄罗斯。

美国在中东的军售

武器进口估算额。这些国家是美国在中东军售的最大买家（来源：斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所）

武器源源不断地流入这个动荡地区，是造成该地区地缘政治不稳和经济不确定的主要原因，尤其是考虑到美国和以色列的军事共生关系。

鉴于以色列面临国际法院和国际刑事法院有关种族灭绝的指控，此类武器转让似乎违反国际惯例法，其中有国际法委员会的《国家责任条款草案》和《国际人道法》（包括1949年《日内瓦四公约》的共同第1条）。

美国和以色列均否认此类指控。而且，华盛顿对国际刑事法院及其检察机关施加了强硬制裁。

中国对中东的“一带一路”立场

过去十来年，中国已成为中东各利益攸关方所信赖的和平调解人。在美国因为军援和实施政权更迭而声名狼藉的国家，中国进行了大量投资。北京还数次取得外交上的成功。

几十年来，美国政府助长了沙特和伊朗（中东地缘政治中的逊尼派和什叶派领袖）之间的分歧。然而2023年3月，这两个国家在中国斡旋下达成协议，宣布恢复双边关系。经历数十年美国主导的制裁后，伊朗希望专事经济发展，利雅得则意图实现“沙特2030愿景”，即经济更加多元，减少石油依赖。

2024年7月，中国在促进巴勒斯坦民族团结方面发挥了关键作用，后来人们称之为《北京宣言》。该宣言由14个巴勒斯坦派别签署，其中最有名的是法塔赫和哈马斯。随后几周，以色列在美国武器和军费支持下，加强了针对这些巴勒斯坦领导人的暗杀行动，包括最近对多哈的袭击。

2015年，经过多年艰辛谈判，伊朗、美国和一些世界大国达成一项核协议（《联合全面行动计划》）。尽管伊朗遵守了协议，但特朗普政府于2018年宣布美国退出。在白宫，由于德黑兰巨大的地区经济和地缘政治重要性，伊朗政权更迭仍然是诱人的。

中国拥有伊朗多个油气田的专用权。作为2016-2017年协议的一部分，部分中国军方领导人认为，北京会将外国对这些地区的攻击视为对其主权领土的攻击。两年后，伊朗加入中国“一带一路”倡议。2021年3月，两国签署为期25年的4000亿美元战略合作协议。（尽管有这些协议，以色列仍于2024年袭击了伊朗，美国在2025年6月轰炸了伊朗核设施。）

2024年8月，北京为其承诺发出更强烈信号：在该地区开辟第二条“丝绸之路”。此前，中国对沙特股市进行了大规模投资，六家中国主要金融机构与沙特签署了价值500亿美元的谅解备忘录。2025年7月，中国和埃及扩大了各经济领域的双边合作。

中国在中东经济影响力不断增强一直是华盛顿极为关注的问题。

丹·斯坦博克博士的《以色列的陷落》（2024）和《毁灭主义》（2025）

美国外交政策军事化

然而，真正的问题不在于加沙、伊朗或中国，而在于美国外交政策的严重军事化。2012年9月，前美国驻阿富汗大使、联军司令卡尔·温弗雷德·艾肯伯里警告称，过去50年来，美国的外交政策变得“过度依赖军事力量”。凭借在全球的军事网络，美国建国以来一直处于战争状态，作战或以其他方式在外国使用军事力量，只有11年未打仗。

自2010年代后期第一个美国基地在以色列设立以来，以色列的军事行动急剧升级，加沙灾难、袭击黎巴嫩和叙利亚等阿拉伯邻国、打击伊朗和也门，以及最近袭击卡塔尔（美国在该地区的重要盟友）就是明证。

1945年以来，华盛顿一直有制造中东政权更迭和局势动荡的黑色记录。仅“911”事件后的战争就损失8万多亿美元和让100多万人丧生。而在加沙，美国因提供大规模军援和资助敌对行动，成为种族灭绝暴行的同谋。这一灾难正促使特朗普的白宫反思，据报道，以埃尔布里奇·科尔比为首的五角大楼官员建议国防部优先保卫美国本土和西半球。这是对军方重点关注“中国威胁”的大逆转，对此华盛顿新保守主义者是难以接受的。

然而一个简单的事实是，美国实施破坏中东稳定政策的时代已经结束，由中国和全球南方国家主导的经济发展时代已经到来。

毁灭性战争无法解决21世纪的挑战。

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa, foreground, arrives to address the United Nations General Assembly on July 28, 2025. Seventeen countries, the European Union, and the Arab League endorsed the New York Declaration a week ago. (Photo: Richard Drew/AP)

Recently, a high-level UN conference urged Israel to commit to a Palestinian state and gave “unwavering support” to a two-state solution. The “New York Declaration” set out a phased plan to end the eight-decade conflict and the ongoing Gaza catastrophe.

Co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, the EU, the Arab League and 15 countries, the conference envisioned an independent, demilitarized Palestine living side by side peacefully with Israel, and their eventual integration into the broader Middle East.

Last week, China joined the New York Declaration. As foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated, “we support all efforts that are conducive to the political settlement of the question…, and the ultimate, comprehensive, just and lasting resolution of the Palestinian question.”

Palestine and thereby the broader Middle East are now at a critical inflection point. For decades, U.S. efforts at “normalization” have unleashed ever-greater devastation in the region, which is crying for a peaceful development scenario, championed by China and the largest economies of the Global South.

America's effective Middle East strategy

The Biden administration's Middle East plan – the “grand bargain” – built on the first Trump administration's Abraham Accords, which were preceded by Israel's peace treaties with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) and the Oslo Accords with the Palestinian Authority (1993–95). These accords are premised on Arab-Israeli normalization, particularly between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. With the U.S. as the behind-the-façade architect, deals with Morocco and Sudan were announced between September 2020 and January 2021, respectively. The grand bargain was premised on the marginalization of Chinese trade and investment presence in the Middle East – and on the sidelining of the Palestinians.

Yet, ever since the Gaza hostilities, Israel's relentless bombing and Biden's support of Netanyahu's war cabinet, the talks have stalled as bilateral trust between Israel and the Gulf states has eroded. In a sense, this is the logical effect of America's effective Middle East strategy, as opposed to its rhetorical diplomatic stance. After all, the real money is not in peace talks, but in arms sales.

America is the court supplier of all major military powers in the Middle East. In the case of its closest allies, the U.S. provides 60 to 80 percent of their lethal imports (Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). In the rest, it accounts for 50 to 60 percent of the total (UAE, Iraq, Qatar), followed by Egypt (34%) whose primary suppliers are mainly America's NATO allies (Germany, Italy), as well as Russia.

U.S. Arms Sales in the Middle East

Estimated military value of arms imports. These countries include the largest recipients of US arms sales in the Middle East (Source: SIPRI)

The steady, progressive flow of arms into the troubled region has been the primary contributor to its geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, particularly in the light of the military symbiosis between the U.S. and Israel.

In the context of Israel facing ICJ and ICC charges related to genocide, such arms transfers would seem to violate customary international law, including the International Law Commission's Draft Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, and International Humanitarian Law, including Common Article 1 to the four Geneva Conventions of 1949.

Obviously, both the U.S. and Israel have rejected all such charges. Instead, Washington has aggressively sanctioned the ICC and its prosecutorial authorities.

China's BRI stance in the Middle East

In the past decade or so, China has emerged as a credible and peaceful intermediary among the different stakeholders in the Middle East. In addition to investing significantly in countries in which the U.S. is known and notorious for its military aid and regime change operations, Beijing has achieved several diplomatic coups.

For decades, U.S. administrations fostered a divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Sunni and Shia leaders of Middle East geopolitics. Yet, in March 2023, these two countries announced the resumption of bilateral relations, following a deal brokered by China. After decades of U.S.-led sanctions, Iran hoped to focus on economic development, whereas Riyadh was intent on realizing the Saudi Vision 2030 of a more diversified, less oil-reliant economy.

In July 2024, China played a vital role in fostering Palestinian national unity in what became known as the Beijing Declaration, signed by 14 different Palestinian factions, most prominently by Fatah and Hamas. In the subsequent weeks, Israel, supported by U.S. arms and military financing, intensified its assassination campaign against these Palestinian leaders – which also led to the recent attack in Doha.

In 2015, years of challenging talks resulted in a nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) between Iran, the U.S., and a set of world powers. Despite Iran's adherence to it, the Trump administration pulled the U.S. out of the deal in 2018. In the White House, regime change in Iran remains tempting, due to Tehran's huge regional economic and geopolitical importance.

China has exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. As part of a 2016-2017 agreement, some Chinese military leaders argued Beijing would regard a foreign attack on these areas as an attack on its own sovereign territory. Two years later, Iran joined China's Belt and Road (BRI) initiative. In March 2021, the countries signed a 25-year and $400-billion strategic cooperation agreement. (Despite these deals, Israel attacked Iran in 2024 while the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025.)

In August 2024, Beijing sent an even stronger signal about its commitment by establishing a Second Silk Road in the region. It ensued after major Chinese investments in Saudi Arabian stocks and the signing of MOUs worth $50 billion with six major Chinese financial institutions. And in July 2025, China and Egypt expanded their bilateral cooperation across various economic sectors.

The progressive rise of China's economic presence in the Middle East remains a matter of great concern in Washington.

The Fall of Israel (2024) and The Obliteration Doctrine (2025) by Dr Dan Steinbock

The militarization of U.S. foreign policy

Yet, the real problem is not Gaza, Iran or China, but the gross militarization of U.S. foreign policy. In September 2012, Karl W. Eikenberry, former U.S. ambassador to and commanding general of Afghanistan, warned that in the past 50 years American foreign policy has become “excessively reliant on military power.” Supported by its global military web, the U.S. has been in war, engaged in combat, or has otherwise employed its forces in foreign countries in all but 11 years of its existence.

Since the establishment of the first U.S. bases in Israel in the late 2010s, Israel's military actions have escalated dramatically, as evidenced by the Gaza catastrophe, the attendant attacks in neighboring Arab states, such as Lebanon and Syria, and even further in Iran and Yemen, and most recently in Qatar – a key U.S. ally in the region.

Since 1945, Washington has relied on a dark record of regime change and destabilization in the Middle East. The post-9/11 wars alone have cost over $8 trillion and the lives of more than 1 million people, whereas in Gaza, the U.S. is complicit to genocidal atrocities, due to its massive military aid and financing of hostilities. This disastrous performance is driving a rethink in the Trump White House where Pentagon officials, headed by Elbridge Colby, are reportedly proposing the department prioritize protecting the homeland and Western Hemisphere, a striking reversal from the military's focus on the “China threat” – and one that Washington's neoconservatives won't easily accept.

Yet, the simple truth is that the era of U.S. destabilization policies is over in the Middle East. The time for aggressive economic development, led by China and the Global South, has arrived.

Obliteration wars are no solution to 21st century challenges.