6月26日至29日，世界经济论坛新领军者年会（AMNC 23）在天津举行，来自90个国家和地区的1500余人与会。会议发出了全球经济即将增长复苏的强烈信号，让人们确信世界不会进入“失去的十年”。

国际货币基金组织最新的《世界经济展望》认为，世界经济目前正经历“艰难复苏”，今年世界产出预计增长2.8%，2024年仅小幅加速至3.0%增速明显低于疫情前。全球通胀仍处于高位，预计 2023 年为 7.0%，2024 年为 4.9%。

越南总理范明政认为，世界经济当前面临着六大阻力：

• 经济衰退和高通胀

• 新冠疫情造成的逆境

• 地缘政治竞争

• 影响全球粮食和能源安全的乌克兰战争

• 发展中国家的外部支付危机

• 气候变化

AMNC 23认为，全球经济复苏的根本途径包括振兴私营部门、促进贸易和创造新的资本流动。然而，所有这些都依赖于新的增长引擎，即能够推动并重塑世界的新兴技术。

在 AMNC 23 上，世界经济论坛发布了题为《2023 年十大新兴技术》的报告。其中包括柔性电池、人工智能、可持续航空燃料、工程噬菌体、改善心理健康的元宇宙、可穿戴植物传感器、空间组学、柔性神经电子学、可持续计算，和人工智能辅助医疗。

这十项新兴技术中，两项与前沿人工智能和数字技术相关，它们将极大提高生产力并重塑全球供应链；五项与医疗保健领域的巨大进步有关；两项与绿色发展、应对气候变化有关；一项涉及农业生产中的数字技术，可显著提高粮食产量。

第一项技术是柔性电池，它将带来智能电子产品、纳米技术、能源存储和智能纺织品领域的进步。预计2022-2027年期间，全球柔性电池市场复合年增长率为22.79%，即市场规模净增长2400亿美元。

第二项技术是生成式人工智能，它将扩充人类行为的可能性，从而显著提高生产力。

第三是可持续航空燃料，它能够将航空燃料从化石能源转变为生物质。航空燃油消耗占世界二氧化碳排放量的 2% 至 3%，所以这一转型将为应对气候变化做出突出贡献。

第四和第五是工程噬菌体和改善心理健康的元宇宙。前者通过设计病毒，增强人类、动物和植物的健康，并具有治疗微生物相关疾病的潜力；后者共享虚拟空间，改善心理健康。

第六是可穿戴植物传感器，这项技术将彻底改变农业数据收集，明显提高农业产量，从而满足对世界粮食供应的迫切需求。联合国粮农组织估计，世界粮食产量必须增加70%，才能满足世界人口不断增长带来的需求。

第七是空间组学，它提供生物过程的分子水平图谱，以解开生命的奥秘。该领域的全球市场规模将从2021年的2326亿美元，增至2030年的5872亿美元。

第八是柔性神经电子学，它提供更好的工程电路，与人类神经系统连接。

第九是可持续计算，它涉及净零能耗数据中心，包括谷歌搜索、元宇宙、人工智能等众多方面。数据中心为全球人工智能社会提供动力，但同时消耗的电力仅占世界电力的 1%。它既是强大的大数据发展动力，也是碳中和领域的成功案例。

第十也是最后一项，是人工智能辅助医疗。这对于医疗基础设施不足的发展中国家尤其重要。

这令人着迷的十项新技术，并不都是当代世界具有里程碑意义的新技术。它们是从95项新技术中精心挑选出来的，有望成为推动世界经济的强大引擎，避免其陷入“失去的十年”。自然地，AMNC 23 与会者存在着一种在这些技术方面进行国际合作的气氛。

在此背景下，华盛顿目前基于价值的弹性供应链政策（将中国排除在外）、对高端芯片和其他技术的全面禁令和限制，以及即将收紧对中国的高科技投资，都不利于世界技术的发展，且并没有太多效果。

首先，新兴技术能够压倒美国目前在这些领域的优势。例如，与柔性电池和生成式人工智能相比，ChatGPT 才刚刚开始。新技术将重塑全球供应链，覆盖广大国家和地区，超越“基于价值”的狭隘定义。

其次，中国也是这些技术全面发展的一部分。大批全球科技企业和机构投资者来到天津，在AMNC 23上与中国政府和企业代表进行座谈。波士顿咨询公司近日发布的报告显示，在全球创新企业50强中，美国科技巨头占据前五个席位（苹果、特斯拉、亚马逊、Alphabet 和微软），但中国企业占据八个席位，其中华为和比亚迪分别位列第八和第九名。美国排名前五的企业都在与中国合作，如果想在世界舞台上取得成功，美国科技巨头离不开中国。

第三，这十项新技术能够解决世界面临的共同挑战，并有望提供解决方案。这些问题包括气候变化、世界粮食供应、全民医保、能源转型，以及数字经济和人工智能的进步。中国和美国在所有这些领域都承担着全球责任，因此应该而且能够合作，而不是脱钩。

美国财长耶伦于7月6日至9日访华，她排除了与中国脱钩的可能性。最新在天津举行的世界经济论坛AMNC 23表示，中美两国应该重新审视两国的技术和商业关系，而且，应该加强在这十项新技术等方面的合作，而不是脱钩。

在诸多领域、具体技术和服务，以及可能的国家安全领域，中美应重启机制性对话和磋商。无疑，这些领域的双边合作将支持两国发展，帮助世界避免陷入“失去的十年”。

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on New Champions (AMNC 23), held in Tianjin from June 26 to 29, had more than 1,500 participants from 90 countries and regions. It sent out strong signals for a global growth revival, providing reassurance that the world is not moving into a lost decade.

The world economy is currently experiencing a “rocky recovery,” as the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook put it, with world output expected to grow 2.8 percent this year and only accelerate slightly to 3.0 percent in 2024. The growth rates are apparently lower than the pre-pandemic period. Global inflation remains at a high level, with 7.0 percent expected for 2023 and 4.9 percent for 2024.

Pham Minh Chinh, the prime minister of Vietnam, summarized the world economy as moving forward against six headwinds:

• Recession and high inflation

• Pandemic-caused adversity

• Geopolitical competition

• The war in Ukraine which affects global food and energy security

• External payment crises in developing countries

• Climate change.

The fundamental path to a revival of global growth, as AMNC 23 found, includes revitalizing the private sector, fostering trade and creating new capital flows. However, all those depend on new growth engine: new and emerging technologies that pull ahead and reshape the world.

The World Economic Forum released a report — 10 Emerging Technologies of the World 2023 — at AMNC 23. These include flexible batteries, artificial intelligence, sustainable aviation fuel, designer phages, a metaverse for mental health, wearable plant sensors, spatial omics, flexible neural electronics, sustainable computing and AI-facilitated healthcare.

Of the 10 emerging technologies, two are related to frontier AI and digital technology, which will greatly advance productivity and reshape the global supply chain. Five are related to drastic advancement in healthcare; two are related to green development and fighting climate change; and one relates to the digital technology in agricultural production to enhance food output significantly.

The first technology is the flexible battery. It will lead to smart electronics, advances in nanotechnology, energy storage and smart textiles. It is estimated that the world flexible battery market will have a composite annual growth rate of 22.79 percent during the 2022-2027 period, or a net market size increase of $240 billion.

The second technology is generative AI, which expands the boundaries of human behavior, thus increasing productivity significantly.

Third is sustainable aviation fuel, which transforms aviation fuel from fossil sources to biomass. Since aviation fuel consumption accounts for 2 to 3 percent of world CO2 emissions, the transformation will contribute markedly to fighting climate change.

Fourth and fifth are designer phages and a metaverse for mental health. The former engineers viruses to augment human, animal and plant health, and has the potential to treat microbiome-associated diseases. The latter shares virtual spaces to improve mental health.

Sixth is wearable plant sensors. This technology will revolutionize agriculture data collection to enhance farm yields considerably. It thus responds to the acute needs of the world food supply. UNFAO has estimated that the world food output has to increase by 70 percent to meet the need of growing world population.

Seventh is spatial omics, which offers molecular-level mapping of biological processes to unlock life's mysteries. The world market size will increase from $232.6 billion in 2021 to $587.2 billion by 2030.

Eighth is flexible neural electronics. It offers better engineered circuits to interface with the human nervous system.

Ninth is sustainable computing, which involves net-zero-energy data centers, including Google searches, metaverse, AI and numerous other aspects. The data centers power AI society worldwide, but at the same time consume only 1 percent of world power supply. It is both a leading big data powerhouse and a carbon-neutral success.

Tenth, and last, is AI-facilitated healthcare. It is especially significant for developing countries with inadequate healthcare infrastructure.

The fascinating 10 new technologies are not all the landmark new technologies in the contemporary world. They were carefully selected from a list of 95 new technologies and will serve as strong engines driving the world economy forward, avoiding “a lost decade.” Naturally, there was a mood of world collaboration in those technologies among participants at AMNC 23.

In this context, Washington's current policy of resilient supply chains based on value — excluding China — and the sweeping bans and restrictions of high-end chips and other technologies, as well as the upcoming tightening of high-tech investment in China, work against the world technology trend and are less effective.

First, the emerging technologies can prevail over the current U.S. advantages in those areas. Compared with flexible batteries and generative AI, for example, ChatGPT is just beginning. The new technologies will reshape global supply chains, covering vast numbers of countries and regions and exceeding the narrow definition of “value-based” ones.

Second, China is also a part in the sweeping growth of these technologies. Large numbers of world technology companies and institutional investors came to Tianjin and had discussions with representatives of the Chinese government and businesses at AMNC 23. According to a recent report by Boston Consultants, of the world's top 50 innovative companies, American tech giants took the top five spots (Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft). But Chinese companies took eight seats, with Huawei and BYD at eighth and ninth respectively. And all the top five U.S. companies cooperate with China. The U.S. tech giants need China if they want to be successful in the world arena.

Third, the 10 new technologies address common challenges facing the world and promise solutions. They include climate change, the world food supply, healthcare for all, energy transition and advances in the digital economy and artificial intelligence. China and America share global responsibility in all these areas and thus should — and can — collaborate, instead of decoupling.

Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury secretary, will visit China from July 6 to 9. She has excluded decoupling from China. The latest World Economic Forum AMNC 23 in Tianjin revealed that China and the U.S. should re-examine their technology and business relations and, rather than decoupling, should enhance collaboration in the 10 new technologies and more.

China and the U.S. should restart institutional dialogues and consultations in various areas, in specific technologies and services and possibly in the national security realm. Bilateral cooperation in these areas will undoubtedly support the growth of both countries and help the world avoid a lost decade.