当前，国际货币体系呈现强势美元周期与“去美元化”浪潮并存的显著特征。近年来，美国滥用美元“过度特权”，周期性收割世界财富，频繁举起金融制裁大棒，不仅加剧了世界经济风险，也严重侵蚀了自身的国际信誉。尽管美元霸权依然强势，但根基正在动摇。

美元霸权的第一个体现：美元周期性收割全世界

美元作为全球货币，在全球支付结算、外汇交易、储备资产等方面占据绝对统治性地位，美联储成为全球的中央银行。美联储货币政策不仅主导了全球的货币政策周期，其利率的升降也对全球美元流动性产生了巨大的“潮汐效应”和“虹吸效应”。今年以来美元“涨势如虹”，美元指数突破110大关，创下20年新高。而包括欧元、日元、韩元等非美主要货币则“一泻千里”。据国际清算银行（BIS）统计，美元对包括发达国家和新兴国家在内的多种货币名义有效汇率几乎处于1994年数据公布以来的最高水平。美元周期性波动导致全球汇率市场的剧烈波动，进而造成各国宏观经济和金融体系的不稳定，甚至导致国际金融危机频发，而美国则借此收割他国财富。美元一家独大以及“过度特权”已成为现行国际货币体系最大的系统风险。

美元霸权的第二个体现：滥用金融制裁大棒

回溯历史，强势美元周期往往与美元化同时出现。然而与以往不同，本轮强势美元周期中并未出现“美元化”，而是“去美元化”。美国滥用金融制裁、推行极限施压的种种行为，严重损害美元国际信用，正成为推动“去美元化”的始作俑者。根据BIS数据，目前美元占国际支付的40.4%、外汇交易的88.3%、国际债券票据的45.1%、SDR篮子的41.73%，以及全球外汇储备的59.23%。全球美元储备超过7万亿美元，短期内美元霸权地位依旧无法撼动。然而，现有国际货币体系的“裂痕”早已显现，以加速脱钩美元清算系统、抛售美国国债、增加黄金储备、减少美元结算为特征的“去美元化”浪潮不断升级。

俄乌冲突及其导致的史无前例的金融制裁正成为“去美元化”浪潮的加速器。美国将金融“武器化”，不仅给国际货币金融体系和秩序的稳定性、可靠性蒙上阴影，也彻底改变了国际金融市场的运作逻辑。国际金融市场不再遵循中立原则，主权国家拥有的财产不再不可侵犯。环球同业银行金融电讯协会（SWIFT）结算系统等长期由美国掌控的金融系统已成为其推行单边主义的工具，美元不再是“无风险资产”，而正在变成“高风险”的国际结算工具。长期看，其对美元的国际公信力正在造成严重损害。

全球“去美元化”趋势正加速推进

美元债务货币化，以及金融制裁沦为博弈工具，导致美元霸权根基失稳。从全球范围内看，除日本、中国、俄罗斯之外，越来越多的海外债权国加速抛售美债。全球美债储备持续下滑，至今年6月已跌至两年来最低水平。10月，日本持有美债规模降至1.12万亿美元左右，创下三年来新低。中国美债持仓为9336亿美元，相比2013年11月的1.32万亿美元，累计净抛售比例达30%。值得关注的是，沙特自2020年以来，已累计抛售高达620亿美元的美债，累计抛售美债比例达35%。特别是近一时期以来，沙特加大了抛售美债力度，这主要是对前期美国对沙特实施“NOPEC法案”的回击。沙特还声称其石油交易将弃用美元以阻止 “NOPEC法案”，石油美元体系的裂隙日益加深。

与此同时，国际替代性贸易结算体系也从构想变为现实。近年来，为绕开被美国主导的全球金融支付结算系统，消除政治经济风险，越来越多的经济体正在或已经开发了独立支付系统。2019年，德、法、英三国宣布建立欧盟对伊朗的贸易结算支持机制，旨在促进非美元和非SWIFT交易，绕过美国制裁，INSTEX（支持贸易往来工具）机制应运而生。印度也已建立了用于国际贸易的印度卢比结算机制，以减少对美元的依赖。

国际储备货币格局“去美元化”进程将进一步加快。今年以来，以色列央行开始推动外汇储备多元化，并计划将美元在其外汇储备中的比例由66.5%降至61%。巴西央行发布的国际储备管理报告显示，2021年，美元在巴西外汇储备中的占比，较2020年下降5.69个百分点至80.34%，为2014年以来的最低水平。而人民币在巴西外汇储备中的份额从上2020年的1.21%升至2021年的4.99%，为2019年人民币进入其货币篮子以来的最高水平，成为其第三大外汇资产。而首届中国－海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会峰会上，双方也达成了开展油气贸易人民币结算的战略共识。凡此种种，都显示出“去美元化”进程无论是深度还是广度上都在加速展开。

“一超多强”而非“一超独大”是改革国际货币体系的方向。随着新兴经济体主权货币国际化进程推进，多极化国际货币体系在一定程度上能够制约美元的“过度特权”。同时，国际替代性贸易结算体系的建立，也在世界各极力量对比格局中壮大了抗衡美元霸权的力量，为促进国际货币体系朝着多极化方向均衡发展铺平了道路。

The international monetary system is going through a strong U.S. dollar cycle, and a pivot away from the currency — or de-dollarization. In recent years, the U.S. administration has abused the currency's excessive privileges, reaped massive benefits from dollar supremacy and frequently resorted to financial sanctions, which not only exacerbated global economic risks but also seriously eroded its international credibility. Although the dollar maintains a strong grip on its hegemony, its foundations have been shaken.

• The first manifestation of dollar hegemony is siphoning off global liquidity in every dollar cycle.

The dollar reigned supreme as the global currency used in most payment settlements, foreign exchange transactions and reserve assets, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has literally become the world's central bank. The Fed's monetary policy steers the global monetary policy cycle, and the fluctuation of interest rates generates tidal effect and siphon effects on global dollar liquidity. This year, the dollar has been on a rising trajectory, with the dollar index breaking the 110 mark, a new 20-year high. Meanwhile, currencies such as the euro, the yen, the Korean won and other major non-U.S. currencies are thrown off a cliff.The Bank for International Settlements calculated that the nominal effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a wide range of currencies, including developed and emerging countries, was at its highest level since 1994, when the data were first released. The cyclical fluctuations of the dollar have led to drastic swings in global exchange rate markets. That, in turn, has unsettled the macroeconomic and financial systems of countries and even led to frequent financial crises. The U.S. stands to benefit massively as capital flows to the U.S. market, with the dollar being used to harvest the wealth of other countries. The dominance of the U.S. dollar and its excessive privileges have become the greatest systemic risk of the current international monetary system.

• The second manifestation of dollar hegemony is the abuse of financial sanctions.

The history of the dollar cycle suggests that strong cycles often coincided with dollarization. However, in a departure from the past, the current strong dollar cycle doesn't come in tandem with dollarization but rather de-dollarization. The excessive use of financial sanctions and extreme pressure employed by the United States has severely undermined the credibility of the dollar, and is the root cause of de-dollarization. According to BIS data, the dollar currently accounts for 40.4 percent of international payments, 88.3 percent of foreign exchange transactions, 45.1 percent of international bond notes, 41.73 percent of the SDR basket and 59.23 percent of global foreign exchange reserves, topping $7 trillion.However, the fault lines in the existing international monetary system have long been visible, and the trend of de-dollarization has accelerated, characterized by more decoupling from the U.S. dollar clearing system, U.S. treasury bond sell-offs, overweight gold reserves and shrinking settlements in dollars.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the unprecedented financial sanctions in its wake are becoming an accelerator of de-dollarization. The weaponization of finance has not only cast a shadow over the stability and reliability of the international monetary and financial system and order but has also upended the logic of the functioning of international financial markets, which no longer observe the principle of neutrality. The property owned by sovereign states is no longer inviolable. The financial system long controlled by the United States, such as SWIFT, has become a tool for unilateralism, rendering the U.S. dollar no longer a risk-free asset. It is becoming a high-risk settlement instrument. In the long run, this portends serious damage to the credibility of the U.S. dollar.

• The global trend of de-dollarization is accelerating.

With the monetization of dollar-denominated debt and the use of financial sanctions as an instrument, the foundation of dollar hegemony has been destabilized. From a global perspective, more overseas creditors — in addition to Japan, China and Russia — are increasingly divesting their U.S. debts. In October, Japan's holdings of U.S. debt fell to around $1.12 trillion, a three-year low. China's U.S. debt holdings totaled $933.6 billion, compared with $1.32 trillion in November 2013, representing a cumulative net sell-off of 30 percent.It is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia has sold a cumulative $62 billion of U.S. debt since 2020, a cumulative sell-off of 35 percent. Saudi has increased its sales of U.S. debt recently, mainly as a response to the implementation of the NOPEC Act by the U.S. against Saudi Arabia. Saudi has also claimed it has abandoned the use of the U.S. dollar in oil transactions to stop the NOPEC Act. The rifts in the system are deepening.

At the same time, an alternative global trade settlement system has moved from concept to reality. In recent years, a growing number of economies have been developing or have developed independent payment systems to bypass the global financial payment and settlement system dominated by the U.S. In 2019, Germany, France and the UK announced the creation of an EU trade settlement support mechanism for Iran. It was designed to facilitate non-dollar and non-SWIFT transactions and bypass U.S. sanctions, and the Instex (Instrument to Support Trade Transactions) mechanism was created. India has also established an Indian rupee settlement mechanism for international trade to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar.

The process of de-dollarization in the international reserve currency system will further pick up speed. This year, the Bank of Israel began diversifying foreign exchange reserves and is set to reduce the proportion of the U.S. dollar from 66.5 percent to 61 percent.According to Brazil's central bank report on international reserve management, in 2021 the U.S. dollar fell in proportion in Brazil's foreign exchange reserves by 5.69 percentage points from the 2020 level to 80.34 percent, the lowest level since 2014. The share of Chinese yuan in Brazil's foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, rose from 1.21 percent in 2020 to 4.99 percent in 2021, the highest level since the yuan was incorporated into its currency basket in 2019 and becoming its third-largest foreign exchange asset.

The first China-Gulf Arab States Cooperation Council summit also reached a strategic consensus to develop settlement in yuan for oil and gas trade. All of these show that the process of de-dollarization is accelerating in both depth and breadth.The international monetary system will evolve into a system characterized by one superpower and multiple major players, as opposed to a single hegemony. As the internationalization of sovereign currencies in emerging economies advances, a multipolar international monetary system can to some extent limit the excessive privileges of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the establishment of an alternative trade settlement system responds to the need to strengthen the counterweight to the hegemony of the dollar in a polarized world, paving the way for the balanced development of multi-polarization in the international monetary system.