2018年初，特朗普总统宣布对企业和个人实行大规模减税政策，企业所得税从35%大幅下调到21%，个人所得税也不同程度低下调，其中富人和中产阶级收益良多。再加上他上台后兑现承诺，陆续放松了对华尔街金融机构的监管，这两大措施有力促进了企业投资和个人消费，美国GDP增长从当年第二季度开始加快，第一季度GDP增长2.2%，第二季度猛增到4.2%，第三季度增长3.5%，第四季度微增2.2%，经济出现了强劲复苏。2018年美国GDP增长2.9%，超过了2017年的2.3%，是自2007年发生次贷危机12年以来增长最快的一年。因此，特朗普总统在2018年秋季联合国大会上得意忘形地自我吹嘘说，他是“美国历史上最伟大的总统”，被世界舆论嘲笑。

但是，美国经济从2019年第二季度开始步入下行轨道。特朗普大规模减税（规模达1.5万亿美元）刺激经济的效应仅延续到2019年第一季度。第一季度GDP增长3.1%，而第二季度增长2.0%，呈现明显的下滑，第三季度仅增长1.9%。

美联储、美国全国商业经济学会和世界主要经济机构均预测今明两年美国经济处于下行轨道。2019年9月18日，美联储预测美国经济2019年仅增长2.2%，2020年增长2.0%。10月7日，美国全国商业经济学会预测美国经济2019年增长2.3%，2020年增长1.8%。

2019年6月4日，世界银行预测美国经济2019年增长2.5%，2020年增长1.7%，2021年增长1.6%。9月19日，IMF预测美国经济2019年增长2.4%，2020年增长2.0%。10月15日，经合组织也做出与IMF相同的预测。

首先，急剧增长的财政赤字和沉重的国债负担给美国经济发展造成了巨大的压力。

特朗普入主白宫后，大搞赤字财政，致使政府的财政赤字急剧增加。2017财年赤字6660亿美元，占GDP的3.5%。2018财年赤字7790亿美元，占GDP的3.9%。2019财年赤字达9844亿美元，占GDP的4.6%，财政赤字同比增长26%。特朗普执政后三个财年累计财政赤字达24294亿美元。

与此同时，美国国债急剧增加。特朗普入主白宫时，国债为19.97万亿美元，2019年11月19日达到23.054万亿美元，人均7.12万美元, 折合人民币50万元。特朗普担任总统两年十个月国债增加了3.084万亿美元，年均1.17万亿美元。巨额国债必然带来沉重的偿息负担，现在美国政府每天要支付10亿美元的债务利息，未来十年需要支付的债务利息将达到7万亿美元。

其次，特朗普大打贸易战也拖累了美国经济的发展。

2019年11月13日，美国消费者新闻频道网站报道的海运数据显示，特朗普对华贸易战给美国造成的损失将永远无法弥补。“从洛杉矶这个繁忙港口运往中国的美国货物量已连续12月下降。2019年10月经该港的出口额同比下降了19.1%。中国对美国商品加征的报复性关税影响了96.6%经洛杉矶港运输的美国对华出口商品，总价值达到199亿美元”。“美国遭受的损失是长期的，而且是多方面的。这场贸易战已经给美国农业造成110亿美元的损失，且受影响的行业不仅限于此”。“在贸易战爆发前美国出口的液化天然气有4.3%卖给了中国，如果按滚动市营统计中国在美国液化天然气出口中的占比高达16%。但2019年8月中国在美国液化天然气出口中的占比大幅降至1%。在美国原油出口中的占比也从2018年1月的20%降至2019年8月的仅1.2%。”“另外，据美国全国零食商联合会公布的数据，从2018年2月贸易战开始到2019年9月，美国消费者和商家已额外支付了380亿美元。”

从大豆出口看，2017年美国对中国出口大豆3285万吨，价值140亿美元，占当年美国大豆出口的65%。而2018年美国对华出口大豆1664万吨，降幅达49%。

利用高新技术打压中国，破坏了国际产业链，结果也伤害了美国的高新技术大企业，造成两败俱伤。2018年4月16日，特朗普宣布对中国第二大通讯企业中兴采取制裁措施，停止芯片供应七年。次日美国著名高新技术公司高通和英特尔的股票大跌9%，第三日高通宣布裁员1500人，第四日高通、英特尔和美光的CEO联合到白宫请愿，请求撤销对中兴的制裁，否则三大公司总额10亿美元的芯片无法处理。特朗普总统这才意识到制裁大棒打在中兴的身上，也疼在高通、英特尔和美光等企业的心上。后经谈判妥协，原定停止芯片供应七年的计划只执行了一个月零14天，于6月1日恢复芯片的供应。

今年5月16日，特朗普宣布对对中国企业华为实行全面制裁，停止所有零部件的供应。谁知次日，高通、英特尔、美光、博通、赛思灵、伟创力、英伟达甚至谷歌和微软等11家美国高新技术的CEO联合到白宫请愿，请求允许它们将华为订购的高达110亿美元的通讯器材发货给华为，否则11家公司将面临巨额损失。在大型高新技术企业的巨大压力下，特朗普总统于5月19日深夜（星期天）宣布给制裁华为提供三个月豁免期，执行日期推至8月19日。在美国企业的努力之下，8月19日美国商务部长罗斯宣布继续延长三个月的豁免期到11月19日。11月18日，商务部长罗斯宣布再次延长豁免期三个月，将对华为的制载推迟到2020年2月16日。

华为事件充分说明，在经济全球化的世界上，任何一个国家不可能在不承受损失的情况下去制裁与产业链相关的另外一个国家的相关企业。这也再次说明发动贸易战必然是两败俱伤，不可能是一方占便宜，而另一方完全吃亏，因为国际经贸历来是互惠互利合作共赢的。

第三，2017-2018年美国吸引外资出现大幅下降，影响美国经济的发展。

据联合国贸发组织的统计，奥巴马政府最后两年美国吸引外资大幅度增加，2015年吸引外资4676亿美元，2016年为4718亿美元。而特朗普入主白宫后，吸引外资的形势发生了逆转，2017年吸引外资2772亿美元，同比大跌41%，2018年降至2518亿美元，同比下跌9.0%。众所周知，美国是具有世界规模的经济体，它的发展需要大规模世界资金来支撑，而且这也有利于美元的国际货币地位。因此，美国近两年吸引外资大幅下降，对美国经济来讲绝非好消息。

现在，离2020年11月3日的大选还有不到一年时间了。面对美国经济继续下滑，特朗普总统除了继续施压美联储降息扩表外，没有更有效的对策。2019年年中，特朗普总统提出减税2.0版方案，即给中产阶级年收入高于13.6万美元的人减免所得税，给企业的盈利减税，借以刺激消费和企业投资，进而防止经济下滑。但白宫的顾问们对他说，减税方案在民主党掌控的众议院很难通过，因为民主党为明年大选准备的炮弹之一就是财政赤字猛增和巨额国债。民主党候选人的政策主张是加税，特别是给富人加税，这也是民主党的传统理念。还有一个办法可以起到立竿见影的作用，就是尽快停止与中国、欧盟等的贸易战，取消额外加征的高关税，这对美国经济的增长和减轻广大消费者的负担进而刺激美国国内消费大有好处。

特朗普总统发动贸易战的初衷是大规模减少美国的贸易逆差，事实证明这个目的根本达不到。据美国商务部统计，2018年美国货物贸易逆差高达8787亿美元，同比增长10.4%。美国与102个国家都存在贸易逆差，这难道也怪中国或者欧盟吗？

为了赢得大选，2020年美国经济必须止跌回升，特别是临近大选的下半年，美国经济增长必须高于2019年的增幅。美国历史表明，大选之年经济表现如何将发挥决定性作用。1992年大选，老布什总统就败在经济下滑的形势之下，这个教训值得拼命想连任的特朗普总统汲取。

In early 2018, United States President Donald Trump announced generous tax cuts for American companies and individuals. The corporate tax rate was lowered to 21 percent from a high of 35 percent, and individual income tax rates were also reduced, with the wealthy and middle class as the biggest beneficiaries. In addition, as part of his efforts to keep his election promises, Trump relaxed regulations on Wall Street financial institutions. All these measures gave a strong boost to business investment and personal consumption expenditures.Meanwhile, American GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2018. Specifically, the economy grew by 2.2, 4.2, 3.5 and 2.2 percent in 2018 on a quarterly basis, pointing to strong signs of recovery. Overall, GDP increased by 2.9 percent in 2018, notably higher than in 2017 (2.3 percent) and the highest in the 12 years since the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis. That may explain why in the United Nations General Assembly in the fall of 2018, President Trump claimed that “my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country,” which became a matter of derision worldwide.

The effect of the massive tax cuts, which amounted to $1.5 trillion dollars, lasted until the first quarter of 2019. Then the American economy continued a downward trend: GDP growth eased from 3.1 percent in Q1 to 2.0 percent in Q2 and then to 1.9 percent in Q3.

In addition, the Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics and major international economic organizations predicted a continued American economic slowdown for 2019 and 2020. On Sept. 18, 2019, the Fed expected the economy to grow 2.2 percent in 2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020. On Nov. 7, the National Association for Business Economics forecast that American GDP growth would slow to 2.3 percent in 2019 and then to 1.8 percent in 2020.

On June 4, the World Bank said U.S. growth would slow to 2.5 percent in 2019, and further slip to 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.6 percent in 2021. On Sept. 19, the IMF projected modest 2.4 percent growth for the United States in 2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020. The OECD predictions released on Oct. 15 were in line with those of the IMF.

Surging fiscal deficit and enormous government debt impose a huge strain on economic growth.

Since taking office, Trump has been obsessed with deficit financing, thus dramatically expanding the fiscal deficit. In 2017 and 2018, the budget shortfall rose to $666 billion and then $779 billion, accounting respectively for 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent of GDP. In 2019, the deficit increased by 26 percent to $984.4 billion, or 4.6 percent of GDP. Taken together, the fiscal deficit incurred in the three years since Trump's inauguration adds up to $2.43 trillion.

Meanwhile, there has been a sharp increase in the U.S. national debt. The debt was $19.97 trillion when Trump became president, and the figure had risen to $23.05 trillion by Nov. 19, 2019, or $71,200 per capita. The new debt level reflects a rise of about $3.08 trillion in the 34 months, or $1.17 trillion annually, since Trump took office in 2017. The heavy national debt means heavy debt service pressure: the American government needs to pay out a total of $1 billion in interest every day, and its interest payments will total $7 trillion in the next decade.

Trump's China trade war holds back the American economy.

On Nov. 13, 2019, a CNBC article said that shipping data indicate that U.S. losses from Trump's China trade war will never be recovered.“U.S. exports to China from the bustling harbor of Los Angeles decreased for 12 consecutive months. It suffered a 19.1 percent drop in export volume from October 2018 to the same month in 2019. China's retaliatory tariffs hit 96.6 percent of the U.S. exports that passed through the L.A. port complex, with a price tag of $19.9 billion,” it said.“The list of losses is long and varied. The trade war has expanded beyond agriculture, which is $11 billion in the hole (and counting). … Before the trade war, U.S. LNG volume comprised 4.3 percent of Chinese imports, and China accounted for 16 percent trailing twelve-month basis (TTM) of U.S. LNG exports. In August 2019, China's LNG volume had slipped precipitously to 1 percent TTM. Crude oil has suffered a similar fate, accounting for 20 percent TTM of U.S. crude exports in January 2018 to just 1.2 percent TTM in August 2019.”In addition, it said: “According to the National Retail Federation, consumers and businesses have paid an additional $38 billion from the start of the trade war in February 2018 through September 2019.”

When it comes to soybean exports, America sold 32.85 million metric tons, or 65 percent of its global exports, to China in 2017 in deals worth $14 billion. This proportion shows that China may have difficulty finding a replacement for U.S. soybeans on the world market. But in 2018, American exports to China were just 16.64 million tons, down by 49 percent.

In the high-tech sector, America's crackdowns have disrupted the international industrial value chain and hurt its own high-tech companies as well. Simply put, they have led to a lose-lose situation. On April 16, 2018, the U.S. government announced sanctions on ZTE Corp., the second-largest telecom equipment maker in China, imposing a seven-year ban on purchases of crucial American technology, including chips. The next day, shares of American chipmakers Qualcomm and Intel fell by about 9 percent; on the third day, Qualcomm announced a layoff of 1,500 employees.On the fourth day, Qualcomm, Intel and Micron CEOs lobbied the White House to lift the ban because they could not figure out how to deal with their stockpile of chips worth $1 billion. Then President Trump came to realize that while the sanctions were targeted at ZTE, the effect was felt by American companies. After much negotiation, the U.S. government announced that it would permit chip exports to the Chinese company on June 1, effectively lifting the ban after one month and 14 days.

Then, on May 16, the Trump administration added China's Huawei Technologies to a trade blacklist, banning the company from buying parts and components from American companies without U.S. government approval. The next day, the chief executives of 11 American high-tech companies, including Quantum, Intel, Micron, Broadcom, Xilinx, Flextronics, Nvidia, Google and Microsoft, met with President Trump at the White House, asking for permission to supply their $11 billion worth of telecom equipment to the Chinese company to avoid huge financial losses.Under strong pressure from these tech giants, Trump made a late-night announcement on May 19 giving Huawei a three-month reprieve. This extension was supposed to end on Aug. 19, but an additional 90 days were announced by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, thanks to the advocacy of American businesses. Three months later, on Nov. 18, Ross announced another three-month extension, moving the deadline to Feb. 16, 2020.

The Huawei saga reveals that in a globalized world, no single country can impose sanctions on foreign companies without causing losses to its own. Again, it proves that a trade war produces no winners. No one can win 100 percent, because international economic and trade cooperation is built on mutual benefit and win-win results.

A significant decrease in foreign investment between 2017 and 2018 also dragged down the U.S. economy.

According to the UNCTAD, in its last two years the Obama administration beefed up efforts to draw foreign investment, increasing inflows from $467.6 billion in 2015 to $471.8 billion in 2016. But things have taken a dramatic turn since Trump took office: The influx of foreign investment dropped to $277.2 billion in 2017, down by 41 percent year on year, and then dropped again to $251.8 billion in 2018, or 9.0 percent year on year.Simply put, there was a gap of $410.4 billion in the 2015-16 and 2017-18 periods.The state of the American economy has global implications. Development relies on massive foreign investment, which also contributes to the status of the dollar as the world's currency. Given this fact, a significant drop in foreign investment is definitely bad news for the American economy.

The next presidential election will take place on Nov. 3, 2020, which is less than a year away. In the face of the economic slowdown, President Trump seems to have no other effective measures at his disposal but to pressure the Fed to reduce interest rates and increase its balance sheet.In mid-2019, he introduced a tax-cut proposal dubbed Tax Cut 2.0. The goal was to reduce income tax for middle earners with an annual income of more than $136,000 and reduce business income tax rates to stimulate consumption and business investment, which ultimately was supposed to halt economic decline. But his advisers told him that it would be difficult to gain the approval of the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Democrats, because the surging fiscal deficit and national debt under Trump provides ammunition for the presidential election. After all, Democratic candidates traditionally argue for increased tax rates, especially for the rich.

For Trump, another solution that can produce immediate benefits is to end the trade war with China, as well as the dispute with the European Union and others, and to remove all extra tariffs. These moves would help grow the economy, reduce the financial burden on consumers and boost domestic consumption in the United States.In launching the trade war, President Trump originally hoped to dramatically reduce America's trade deficit, but it has been proved that this is a distant goal. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2018 the U.S. trade deficit in goods amounted to $878.7 billion, up by 10.4 percent year on year. And the country ran trade deficits with 102 countries. Is China or the European Union to blame for this problem?

To win the election, President Trump must figure out ways to halt an economic slide in 2020. More important, by the second half of 2020, he must ensure that the American economy will grow more robustly than it did in 2019.American history shows that economic performance in election years matters. George H.W. Bush, for example, lost his re-election bid in the 1992 presidential election because of an economic slowdown. This is a lesson that President Trump needs to learn from if he expects to secure another term.