G20杭州峰会一个独有而显著的特点，就是契合联合国2030年可持续发展议程，符合全球宏观政策框架下的发展优先秩序。在G20成员不断致力于全球经济增长与治理的同时，杭州峰会将为南北合作与南南合作确立更广泛的框架。

G20杭州峰会一个独有而显著的特点，就是契合联合国2030年可持续发展议程。

 G20的不足

两年前笔者在G20布里斯班峰会时写过一篇文章，呼吁对众多贫穷国家给予关注。文章提到“G20一定程度上忽视了世界上的穷国。虽然G20成员拥有全球90%的GDP，其他以小国穷国为主的170多个国家仅拥有余下10%的GDP，但后者代表世界的大多数（人口）和最重要、最难解决的全球性经济社会问题，如贫困、粮食安全、气候变化和基础设施建设。G20邀请一小部分国家参与每年的峰会，但为数极少。在这种情况下，G20想解决千年发展目标、气候变化和粮食安全等问题是不会有什么成效的”。

G20一度是大国发挥关键作用的危机应对机制。但随着它演变成为一个长期的全球治理平台，小国和欠发达国家已不可或缺。联合国有197个成员国，G20只有19国+欧盟（其他24个国家）。仅仅强调G20在全球GDP中所占的份额是不行的。英国占全球GDP不足4%，但英国退欧将对世界经济格局产生深远影响。希腊占欧盟GDP不足2%，而希腊债务危机却动摇了欧元区的根基。

世界石油和大宗商品价格暴跌，使不少新兴国家和发展中国家难上加难。而一些小岛国尤其受到全球气候变暖的威胁。内陆国家也经受着贸易萎缩和贸易保护的沉重打击。所有欠发达国家都面临基础设施不足和供水、教育、医疗服务的短缺。这些国家的经济没有显著增长，世界经济的强劲、可持续和平衡增长就无从谈起。

杭州峰会面临的挑战

由于经济持续疲软脆弱，IMF每隔三个月就调低对全球经济增长率的预测。英国退欧公投后，IMF于7月初发布最新《世界经济展望》报告。报告显示，撒哈拉以南非洲国家形势急剧恶化，而这一地区曾是 世界上增长最快的地区之一。2016、2017年，该地区GDP增长率预计为1.6%和3.3%，比三个月前的预测分别减少1.4和0.7个百分点。2016年低收入国家GDP增长率预计为3.8%（2015年为4.5%），只有到2017年才会升至5.1%。要知道，联合国2030年发展议程是设想年均增长7%来达到它的2030年目标。所以杭州峰会面临的挑战就是：G20国家、发展中国家和国际组织领导人能否作出强有力的有效承诺，推动上述国家实现经济增长。

原油和大宗商品价格暴跌是关键。据IMF统计，2014年和2015年世界原油价格分别下跌7.5%和47.2%，2016年降幅估计达15.5%，到2017年才有可能上涨16.4%。非燃料类大宗商品的平均价格2014年下降4.0%，2015年下降17.5%，2016年预计下降3.8%，2017年预计上升0.6%。

笔者一年前还提出，作为全球最大石油、页岩气生产国和G20成员国，美国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯应在G20峰会期间就稳定世界石油市场进行磋商。但G20什么也没做，只是任由市场自我运转。

耐人寻味的是，2015年年底以来，越来越多资本流入大宗商品市场。巴克莱银行8月8日公布的数据显示，2016年初至今，流入全球大宗商品市场的资本增加了500亿美元，到2016年年中已达2350亿美元。是2009年全球大宗商品市场步入三年繁荣期以来增加最多的。然而，多数资本流向了有上升预期的石油和黄金市场。这也表明全球大宗商品市场的波动起伏不仅取决于供求因素，也取决于资本投资与投机，因为全球大宗产品期货主要是金融工具，而不是实际的需求。杭州峰会再次面临的挑战就是：G20领导人能否加强对全球大宗商品市场的金融监管？

两个战略

为确保发展议程有一个良好开端，杭州峰会至少要关注两个战略。

首先，是全球大宗商品市场稳定战略。G20领导人应将这一战略纳入更大的全球金融监管和全球金融体系框架。世界大宗商品价格主要取决于供求，但实际上也随资本的流动而波动。大宗商品期货交易包括获利性投机，而控制过度投机的一个有效手段，就是落实保证金要求，严格交易规则。2007年，全球石油期货交易投机猖獗，促使油价一度飙升到每桶147美元。后来，保证金要求发生了变化，油价直线下跌。G20领导人应就更广泛的战略达成一致，以稳定全球大宗商品市场。这一战略应该包括更多的期货交易监管，以及建立类似全球粮食缓冲储备那样的缓冲储备机制。G20国家应该为这一机制提供金融支持和专业支持，同时发展中国家和最不发达国家应加入这一有良好治理和国际合作的机制。

第二，是非洲国家的工业化战略。非洲是世界上增长最快的地区之一，它的未来就在于实现大规模工业化。如果成功，预计非洲将在一代人时间内建立起全面的工业体系，在两代人时间内成为世界最大工业化大陆之一。G20、非盟、联合国工发组织、世界银行及其他国际组织的领导人应启动一个有全球合作的非洲工业化集体战略。作为开始，杭州峰会期间应该推出一个战略研究与全面行动计划。这样杭州峰会将为G20历史作出里程碑式贡献，为全球经济的强劲、可持续和平衡增长开启新的路径。

A distinct and significant feature of the G20 Hangzhou Summit is the convergence with UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the priority for development in the global macro policy framework. While continuing great efforts in global growth and governance by G20 member countries, the Hangzhou Summit will launch a broader framework for North-South and South-South cooperation.

A distinct and significant feature of the G20 Hangzhou Summit is the convergence with UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the priority for development in the global macro policy framework.

Insufficiency of G20

I contributed an article to G20 Brisbane Summit two years ago. In the article, I appealed for due attention to vast number of poor countries. The article said that “the G20 has partially neglected the poor countries of the world. Although 90% of world GDP is covered by G20 members, the remaining 10% is covered by over 170 countries, mostly small and poor. They represent the vast majority of the world (population) and the most critical and difficult world economic and social issues, such as poverty, food security, climate change, and infrastructures. The G20 does invite small countries to each year's summit. But they are only a few. Hence, it will be less effective if the G20 wants to address MDG, climate change and food security issues.”

G20 used to be a crisis-responsive mechanism in which big countries played a key role. However, with G20 evolving into a long-term global governance platform, small and less developed countries are also indispensable. The UN has 197 member states while G20 covers only 19+ EU (24 more countries). It will be inappropriate to simply emphasize the share of G20 in world GDP. Brexit has had a strong and persistent impact on world economic landscape although UK accounts for less than 4% of total world GDP. Greece, with less than 2% of EU GDP, also shook the foundation of the Euro area by its debt crisis.

The sharp fall in world oil and commodities prices has added grave difficulties in large numbers of new emerging and developing countries. Global warming threatens, among others, the small island countries in particular. The land-locked countries have also been hit hard by the poor trade performances and trade protection. All the less developed countries suffer from poor infrastructure, inadequate water supply, education and medical services. The strong, sustainable and balanced growth in world economy will be out of question if there is no significant development in those countries.

Challenges for Hangzhou Summit

The IMF has been revising downward the world GDP growth rate once every three months as weakness and vulnerability persist. The most recent edition of its WEO, released in early July after Brexit, showed a sharp deterioration in sub-Sahara countries which used to be one of the fastest growing region in the world. GDP growth rate for this region was estimated at a merger 1.6% for 2016, 1.4 % down from the estimate 3 months ago; and 3.3% for 2017, 0.7 % down. The low-income countries will see 3.8% GDP growth in 2016 (4.5% growth in 2015), only to pick up to 5.1% in 2017. Remember, the UN2030 Agenda envisages an annual growth rate of 7% to attain its 2030 goal. Then the challenge to the Hangzhou Summit is: Can the leaders of the G20, developing countries and international organizations come to a strong and effective commitment to lift the growth rate in those countries?

A key issue is the sharp fall in oil and commodities prices. According to IMF, the world oil price fell by 7.5% in 2014 and 47.2% in 2015, and is expected to fall by 15.5% in 2016, only to rise by 16.4% in 2017. The non-fuel commodities average price level was 4.0% down in 2014 and 17.5% down in 2015, and is projected to fall by 3.8% in 2016 and by 0.6% in 2017.

I also suggested a year ago that the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world largest oil and shale gas producers, also G20 members, sit together at the G20 sideline meetings for stabilizing world oil market. However, the G20 did nothing, only waiting for its own cycle.

Interestingly, there have been an increased capital flows into the commodities markets since the end of 2015. Data by Barclays released on Aug 8 shows that capital inflows into world commodities markets increased by $50 billion since the start of 2016, reaching $235.0 billion by mid-2016, compared to $161.0 billion at the end of 2015. The increase was the largest since 2009, when a three-year boom started in world commodities. Nonetheless, most of the capital has flowed into the oil and gold markets in anticipation of further rises. This also shows that the fluctuations or volatilities of world commodities markets are not only decided by supply-demand factors, but also by capital investment and speculation, as world commodities futures are mostly financial tools, instead of actual needs. Again, the challenge to the Hangzhou Summit is: Can G20 leaders enhance financial governance in world commodities markets?

Two strategies

In order to secure a good start for the development agenda, two strategies, among others, need to be focused on at the Hangzhou Summit.

First, the strategy of world commodities market stabilization. G20 leaders should incorporate this strategy into the broader framework of global financial governance and global finance architecture. World commodities prices, while depending on the supply-demand equilibrium at large, are actually fluctuating with capital moves. Commodities futures trading includes speculation for profit taking. An effective tool to check excessive speculation is managing the margin requirements and relevant strict trading rules. In 2007, speculation was rampant in the world oil futures trading and once sent the price to $147 per barrel. Later, when the margin requirements changed, the oil price nosedived. G20 leaders should agree on the broader strategy for world commodities market stability. The strategy should include both more futures trading governance and additional buffer stocking mechanism, similar to the world food buffer stocks. G20 countries should offer financial assistance and expertise to the mechanism and the developing countries and LDCs should join in the mechanism with good governance and international cooperation.

Second, the strategy of African industrialization. Africa has been one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, and its future lies in the massive industrialization. It is estimated that, if successful, Africa will build up a comprehensive industrial system in a generation and become one of the world's largest industrialized continents in two generations. Leaders of the G20, AU, UNIDO, WB and other international organizations should launch a collective strategy on African Industrialization with global cooperation. To start with, a strategic study and a comprehensive action plan should be launched at the Hangzhou Summit. By so doing, the Hangzhou Summit will make a landmark contribution to G20 history and start a new pathway to a strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the whole world.