国际货币基金组织（IMF）近日宣布中国人民币汇率“估值合理”，这是IMF逾10年来首次更改人民币被“低估”的评判。这意味着人民币汇率形成机制改革取得实质性进展，并有望在2015年被纳入IMF特别提款权（SDR）货币篮子。

IMF官员认为，其评估一直是人民币在2014年温和低估。然而，自去年以来，人民币实际有效汇率非常显著升值。事实确实如此。国际清算银行数据显示，自2005年人民币汇率形成机制改革至去年末，人民币名义有效汇率升值40.51%，实际有效汇率升值51.04%。其中2014年末人民币实际有效汇率指数为126.16，名义有效汇率指数为121.53，全年涨幅分别为6.24%和6.41%，虽然较2013年涨幅放缓，但是在国际清算银行监测的61种货币中，人民币名义和实际有效汇率升幅分别排其监测货币的第一和第二位。

近几年，中国货币当局推进人民币形成机制改革的步伐一直没有停歇。人民币汇率浮动幅度已经从0.3%、0.5%、1.0%扩大至目前的2%。在政策立场上，中国也没有刻意追求顺差，2008年全球金融危机以来，中国“扩内需、调结构、减顺差、促平衡”，经常项目收支已经趋向平衡，进口保持了年均17%以上的速度，是历史上最长的一个进口稳定快速增长期。近年来，中国经常账户顺差已显著收窄，从2007年接近GDP的10%，下降至2010年的国际认可的合理标准以内，并降至去年的2%左右，且连续五年控制在4%以内。

一直以来，国际上人民币“汇率低估论”、“汇率操纵论”在理论和实证上并不成立。就中美贸易不平衡而言，也不能归咎于是人民币汇率低估的产物，中国持有的大额外汇储备也不是人民币低估的结果。近期，哈佛大学经济学教授马丁·费尔德斯坦在英国《金融时报》发文指出，美国应停止发布汇率操纵报告。他认为正如每个经济学专业的学生知道的那样，每个国家的经常账户状况更大程度上是由本国内部结构决定的，而不是由其贸易伙伴决定的。

然而，人民币一直背负着被低估以及导致全球失衡，特别是中美失衡的责任。因此，打破单边被动升值魔咒，完善人民币汇率形成机制，增强人民币汇率弹性势在必行。1994年中国就开启了人民币汇率形成机制的市场化改革，开始实行以市场供求为基础、单一的有管理的浮动汇率制度。2005年7月进行汇率改革，开始实行以市场为基础的、参考一篮子货币进行调节的、有管理的浮动汇率制度，并将银行间即期外汇市场人民币对美元日波幅限定为千分之三。此后，2007年、2012年、2014年持续将波幅扩大至2%。2014年中国央行明确表示未来将基本退出常态化外汇干预，逐步摆脱依靠外汇占款供应基础货币的模式，逐步增强货币定价的自主权。

事实也是如此，2014年以来全球货币战愈演愈烈，除巴西为抵御通胀逆势加息之外，土耳其、丹麦、瑞士、印度、埃及、加拿大央行纷纷降低基准利率或实施宽松政策，降息潮已席卷全球24家央行。越来越多的央行重新推行扩张性货币政策，全球竞争性货币贬值潮正拉开新一轮序幕，但中国并不会加入全球货币战争。与此同时，其他新兴经济体大都经历了大幅货币贬值。巴西的实际有效汇率下降16%，俄罗斯卢布下降了32%，印度卢比下降了12%。从汇率变动效果看，如果各国都实施竞争性货币贬值，贬值效应将相互抵消，对刺激出口的效果有限。

从货币立场看，兼顾市场供求和篮子货币汇率，引导市场预期，维持人民币汇率稳定是主要目标，中国不会加入全球货币战，也不会任由货币大幅贬值。人民币汇率保持基本稳定，甚至是小幅向下波动对于维持金融资产稳定，防范大规模资本外流风险，控制海外负债风险，降低债务负担，以及稳定经济增长预期都是有利的，符合当前中国经济利益，更符合人民币国际化的长远目标。

毫无疑问，人民币支付价值的上升和国际社会对人民币估值合理的认可，在人民币国际化进程中占据重要地位，具有里程碑意义。环球同业银行金融电讯协会（SWIFT）数据显示，目前人民币是全球第二大贸易融资货币，也是全球第五大最被广泛使用的交易货币。可以预见，随着人民币汇率形成机制改革成熟，以及资本账户开放的推进，人民币被纳入SDR已经是大势所趋。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in May that the Chinese currency, known as the renminbi (RMB) or the yuan, is “fairly valued.” This is the first time in more than a decade that the IMF changed its “undervalued” assessment about the RMB. This proves the substantive progress made in the exchange-rate formation mechanism and bodes well for the inclusion of the RMB into the Special Drawing Rights currency basket of the IMF before the end of 2015.

IMF officials said the IMF always evaluated the RMB as “mildly undervalued,” including in 2014. Since last year, however, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has “significantly appreciated.” Data also support this assessment. According to statistics released by the Bank for International Settlements, since the reforms adopted on the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism in 2005, the nominal effective exchange rate of the RMB had appreciated 40.51% while the real effective exchange rate had risen 51.04%. At the end of 2014, the real effective exchange-rate index stood at 126.16 and the nominal effective exchange rate was 121.53, showing an annual rise of 6.24% and 6.41%, respectively. Although the growth rates slowed slightly compared with 2013, the appreciation rates of the nominal and real effective exchange rates of the RMB among the 61 currencies tracked by the BIS ranked first and second, respectively.

In the past few years, the Chinese monetary authority has never ceased its efforts in reforming the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism. The fluctuation band for the RMB exchange rate has gradually been widened, from 0.3%, 0.5% and 1.0% to the current 2%. On the policy front, China does not intend to pursue a surplus. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, China has been implementing a policy of “stimulating domestic demand, adjusting the structure, reducing the surplus and working to strike a balance,” has gradually achieved a balance of international payments under current account, and has maintained an annual growth rate of more than 17% in imports. This was the longest streak in history in which imports maintained a stable and fast growth. In recent years, China's surplus under the current account has contracted remarkably, from about 10% of the GDP in 2007 to a level within the internationally recognized reasonable standard in 2010, and down further to about 2% in 2014. Furthermore, it has been controlled below the level of 5% for five consecutive years.

The long-hyped view of RMB “undervaluation” and “currency manipulation” is no longer a serious contention. In terms of the imbalance in China-US trade, it was not the outcome of the so-called undervalued RMB exchange rate, nor was China's massive foreign exchange reserves the result of the undervalued exchange rate. Martin Feldstein, professor of economics at Harvard University, recently pointed out in his article in the Financial Times that the United States should bring an end to publishing the semiannual report on international exchange-rate policies. As every student of economics knows, he said, the current account balance of a country is actually determined by its domestic structures, and is not decided by its trading partners.

The RMB, however, has always been considered to be “undervalued” and has been blamed as the culprit for global imbalance, particularly the imbalance between China and the United States. It is therefore urgent to put an end to the unilateral, passive appreciation, improve the exchange-rate formation mechanism, and increase the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. China launched market-oriented reforms on the RMB exchange-rate mechanism in 1994 and adopted the managed floating exchange-rate system based on market supply. In July 2005, China further reformed the exchange-rate system, and began to adopt the managed floating exchange-rate system based on market supply and adjusted with reference to the rates of a basket of currencies, and set the daily fluctuation band of the RMB against the US dollar on the interbank spot foreign exchange market at 0.3%. And in 2007, 2012 and 2014, the fluctuation band was further widened and eventually to the current 2%. In 2014, the central bank (the People's Bank of China) clearly indicated that it would exit from regular foreign exchange intervention in the future, gradually abandon the model of supplying base currency according to funds outstanding for foreign exchange, and increase the autonomy in currency pricing.

Facts speak louder. With a “global currency war” sweeping across the world since 2014, excluding Brazil which hiked interest rates to fight inflation, the central banks of Turkey, Denmark, Switzerland, India, Egypt and Canada have all joined the wave of cutting benchmark interest rates or adopting a loose monetary policy, and the central banks of 24 countries chose to cut interest rates. With more and more central banks resorting to the expansionary monetary policies again and a new wave of competitive currency depreciation, China did not choose to join the “global currency war.” A flood of significant currency depreciation also hit other emerging economies. The real effective exchange rate of Brazil's real dropped 16%, the rouble of Russia declined 32% and the Indian rupee dropped 12%. Judging from the effect of exchange rates, if all countries compete to depreciate their currencies, the effect from currency depreciation would be offset and the effect in stimulating exports would be very limited.

In terms of the currency stance, the main goals are to give consideration to market supply and the exchange rates of basket currencies, to guide market expectations and to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate. China will not jump on the bandwagon of the “global currency war,” nor will it allow the RMB to depreciate massively. To keep the RMB exchange rate stable or even allow it to fluctuate downward by a small margin, it will be constructive in keeping the financial assets stable, preventing the risk of massive capital outflows, controlling the risk of overseas debts, lowering the debt burden and stabilizing expectations for economic growth. This is in the best interest of the Chinese economy and conforms with the long-term goal of the RMB's internationalization.

The rise in RMB value in international payments and the recognition of a reasonable level of the RMB value by the international community clearly represent a milestone. According to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, the RMB is now the second most-used currency for trade and financing, and the fifth most-used payment currency in the world. It could be predicted that with the maturity of the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism and the opening of the capital account, it would be natural for the RMB to be included in the SDR basket of currencies.