全世界都在谈论美国对中国倡议的亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）的战略已经失败。其中出了什么错？依我看，有三件事是错的：

首先，是对当今世界特征的双重误读：误读我们这个时代的主旨，误读全球发展趋势。

上世纪多数时间里，零和博弈论主导着国际关系。这个世界见证了两次世界大战、众多地区性战争和革命。二战后接踵而来的冷战，其特点是东西方对峙。换句话说，是美国和苏联两个超级大国的对抗。如果美国羸，就意味着苏联输，反之亦然。但随着时间推移，世界人民开始对这种紧张感到厌恶和疲惫。到上世纪末，这种博弈论失去了吸引力，逐渐被正和博弈取代，也就是从对峙转为合作共赢。

这种改变的背后有两个原因：

全球化。它使各国相互依存，不同国家的利益深深地交织在一起。如果你伤害另一方，那么你自己也会遭受痛苦。它不再是“我赢你输”的那种情况。

人类面临共同挑战，包括气候变化、恐怖主义、自然灾害、贩毒、传染性疾病，等等。不管国家多么强大，没有哪个国家能独自应对这些挑战。人类为了生存必须团结起来。

世界发展趋势是什么呢？今天，我们不再生活在一个单一世界里，世界正走向多极化。美国不是处在一个命令别国如何做的位置。关系着人类未来的问题要在相关国家中讨论并民主解决。美国意识到这种趋势了吗？它在努力适应这种趋势吗？我希望美国停止对全球发展趋势的误读，并采取行动推动这一趋势的发展。

其次，是双重误判。有些美国人怀疑中国创建亚投行的点子是针对美国。他们断言新银行将削弱世界银行、国际货币基金组织（IMF）和亚洲开发银行，增加中国在亚太地区的影响力。我要提醒这些人，中国是世行、IMF和亚开行成员，怎么会想伤害这些国际金融机构？中国提出创建亚投行，意图是促进作为全球增长中心的亚洲的发展。基础设施对发展至关重要，而亚洲在这方面有巨大需求，2010年到2020年需要8万亿美元。显然，现有国际金融机构无法满足这一需求。如果亚洲特别是东亚的基础设施需求得到满足，它必然会刺激经济增长。亚太地区的增长反过来有助于推动美国、欧洲和整个亚非拉地区的增长。如果亚投行被证明是成功的，那么它无疑将成为正和博弈与合作共赢的经典范例。

第二个误判，是误判了美国盟友对“老大哥”的服从程度。冷战时期，绝大多数美国的盟友坚定站在美国一边。冷战结束，这种服从也就消失了。

第三，是双重误行。第一个错误行为是美国拒不加入亚投行。第二个是它试图阻拦盟友加入这家即将成立的新银行。

误行是误读与误判的逻辑必然。

华盛顿现在应该做什么？我希望在华盛顿常识会占上风。人们可以犯错，没有人是一贯正确的。当一个人认识到错误的时候，聪明的做法就是尽快改正。 中国一直表示加入亚投行的大门是向美国打开的。我希望美国这样做，这并不丢脸，如果呆在外面才会更加丢脸。现在轮到华盛顿作选择了。

People around the world are talking about the failure of U.S. strategy with regard to the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiated by China. What went wrong? As I see it, three things are wrong:

First, a dual-misreading of the features of today's world: misreading the name of the game of our time and misreading the trend of the global development.

For the most part of the last century, zero-sum game theory dominated international relations. The world witnessed two World Wars, many regional wars, and revolutions. The Cold War followed World War II, featuring East-West confrontation. To put it in other words, it was confrontation between the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. If the U.S. won, it would mean Soviet loss and vice versa. But over time, people of the world became sick and tired of the tension. Towards the end of the last century, this game theory lost its appeal and was gradually replaced by the positive-sum game, i.e. from confrontation to win-win cooperation.

Two factors are behind this change:

1. Globalization. It makes nations deeply interdependent. The interests of different countries are profoundly intertwined. If you try to hurt the other side, you yourself will have to suffer the pain, too. It's no longer a scenario of “I win you lose.”

B. Common challenges facing the mankind. They are climate change, terrorism, natural disasters, drug trafficking, pandemics, etc. No country, no matter how powerful, is able to cope with those challenges alone. The human race is bound to unite for their survival.

What is the trend of the world developments? Today we are no longer living in a uni-polar world. It is moving towards multi-polarity. The U.S. is not in the position to dictate to others how to behave. Issues concerning the future of mankind are to be discussed and resolved democratically among countries involved. Is the U.S. aware of this trend? Does it try to adapt to it? I hope it will stop misreading the trend of the global development and act to push forward this trend.

Second, dual-misjudgment. Some Americans suspect that China's initiative to set up the AIIB is aimed at the U.S. They assert that the new bank would undercut the World Bank, IMF and, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), while increasing China's leverage in the Asia-Pacific region. I would remind those people that China is a member of the World Bank, IMF and ADB. How could China want to hurt these international financial institutions? Its intention in proposing to launch the AIIB is to generate growth in Asia, the global growth center. Infrastructure is the key to the growth and Asia's demand in this respect is huge, about 8 trillion U.S. dollars from 2015 to 2020. Obviously, the existing international financial institutions are not able to meet this demand. If the infrastructure demand in Asia, especially East Asia, is met, it is bound to stimulate growth. Growth in the Asia-Pacific region will in turn help generate growth in the U.S., Europe, the whole of Asia, Africa and Latin America. If the AIIB proves to be a success story, it will surely become a classic example of positive-sum game and win-win cooperation.

The second misjudgment concerns the degree of obedience of U.S. allies to their “big brother”. During the Cold War period, most US allies stood firmly by the US side. The Cold War being over, gone with it is that kind of obedience.

Third, dual-misbehavior. The first instance of misbehavior is the U.S. refusal to join the AIIB. The second instance of misbehavior was an attempt to prevent U.S. allies from joining the would-be new bank.

Misbehavior is the logical consequence of misreading and misjudging.

What should Washington do now? I hope that common sense will prevail in Washington. People can make mistakes. No one is infallible. When one realizes one's mistake, the smartest thing to do is to correct it as soon as possible. China keeps saying that the door is open for the U.S. to join in the AIIB. I hope U.S. will do it. This is not a matter of losing face. If you stay out, you would lose more face. It's up to Washington to make the choice.