俄乌战争已演化成一场影响全球秩序的战争，并为世界经济前景增加了更多的不确定性。根据联合国发布的《2023年世界经济形势与展望》报告，2023年，全球经济增速可能成为数十年来增速最低的年份之一。在冷战结束后，人们不得不再次思考这个问题——世界什么时候才能回归正常，即国家更加紧密的团结在一起应对各种全球性危机、可控的意识形态冲突、频繁的贸易和文化交流。然而，人们所期望的以和平与和谐为特征的世界正常秩序是一种想象的自然状态，而世界真实的自然状态是分歧和冲突。在剥去这层理想主义外衣后，我们便可以理解为什么俄乌战争会在人类文明水平较高的欧洲地区发生，而富裕的欧洲人也不惜损失自己的社会福利去争取乌克兰战争的胜利。

尽管美国及其盟国让乌克兰军队越来越强大，但俄乌战争不会在短期内结束。在2023年2月举行的慕尼黑安全会议上，欧洲国家一边倒地支持乌克兰；欧盟委员会则积极推动成员国的国防工业联合起来，加速、加大乌克兰战场急需的武器弹药生产。美国总统拜登在战争爆发一周年之际访问了基辅，这显示了美国坚定支持乌克兰的决心。目前，俄乌两国军事力量正在乌克兰东部地区展开攻防战，但是乌克兰很难取得决定性胜利。因为如果交战区仅限于乌克兰境内，那么俄罗斯国内的战争资源就有能力维持一场长期的常规战争。

国际社会呼吁修正现有国际体系——重塑自我纠正机制。作为冷战结束后欧洲大陆历时最长的、规模较大的战争，俄乌战争不得不让人们重新思考当今国际体系在维护世界和平中的作用。显然，这种“一超多强”的国际体系很难遏制大国选择战争行为。特别是近10年来，民族主义的高涨、国家安全的滥用，让大国间的分歧和竞争似乎变得越来越不可调和。那么多极化是否能够遏制战争？答案也是否定的。因为大国在多极化世界中的竞争更加不可控。比较典型的例子就是发生在1853年至1856年间的克里米亚战争。联合国主管政治和建设和平事务的副秘书长迪卡洛（Rosemary DiCarlo）在2022年11月16日曾向安理会指出，为解决或管理紧张局势和冲突而建立的国际集体安全体系已受到乌克兰战争的严重破坏，这反过来也加大了解决乌克兰敌对行动的难度。在这种背景下，有关联合国大会改革的呼声越来越高。

国际体系中的结构反映了国家实力和观念，很难自我修正。“一超多强”是一种结构失衡的国际体系，实力占优的国家总是试图利用自己的权力控制其它国家，而不会与它国分享权力。因此，在俄乌战争环境塑造下，乔治•凯南的遏制战略则成为实力占优国家及其盟友的优先选择。针对俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争行为，实力占优国家及其盟友的遏制战略是：军事上威慑俄罗斯、增加俄罗斯的战争成本、让俄罗斯与国际社会脱钩。只有在政治和经济上符合实力占优国家及其盟友给定的标准时，俄罗斯才能再次成为合作伙伴及国际体系中的一员。

战争是多方博弈的结果，而俄罗斯更需要为自己今天的战争行为负责。战争爆发前，俄罗斯与乌克兰、西方国家有很多通过外交途径解决问题的机会。在美俄日内瓦峰会（2021年6月）上，美俄曾约定开展双边战略稳定对话。然而峰会结束不到一个月，普京在一篇名为《论俄罗斯人和乌克兰人的历史统一性》的文章中提到俄罗斯人和乌克兰人是“一个民族”，而莫斯科则被诡计多端的西方“抢走”了自己的领土。2021年10月，拜登政府的情报认定俄罗斯要发动这场战争。11月，中情局局长伯恩斯赴俄罗斯会见了俄罗斯安全会议秘书帕特鲁舍夫，并讨论了乌克兰问题。尽管从美国获得了战争即将爆发的情报，法国和德国领导人坚持认为仍然存在外交机会，并为之努力与俄罗斯、乌克兰斡旋，但这些工作都以俄罗斯导弹飞向乌克兰的目标而告终。毫无疑问，当前的国际体系很容易让国家从竞争转向对抗，从对抗转向战争。要想在结构失衡的国际体系中规避战争，任何国家都需要更大的智慧，避免成为一个无限权力和帝国的追求者。

Since it began last year, the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved. It is now affecting the global order and adding more uncertainty to the world economy. According to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023, this year's global economic growth rate may be among the lowest in recent decades.After the end of the Cold War, people wondered: When will the world return to normal? That question is being asked again. When will countries come together to deal with various global challenges or ideological conflicts and again promote trade and cultural exchanges? Of course, the desire for a normal world order — one characterized by peace and harmony — has always been illusory. The real natural state of the world is marked by disagreement and conflict.Looking beyond the ideal, one can understand why the Russia-Ukraine war is taking place in the European region with its relatively high level of civilization — and why wealthy Europeans do not hesitate to give up their social welfare in an effort to win. But despite the fact that the United States and its allies are strengthening the Ukrainian military, this war will not end anytime soon.

At the Munich Security Conference in February, European countries overwhelmingly supported Ukraine. The European Commission, for its part, actively pushed member states' defense industries to join forces to accelerate and increase production of weapons and ammunition urgently needed for the Ukrainian battlefield. U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Kyiv on the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war demonstrated America's determination to firmly support Ukraine.Currently, Russian and Ukrainian military forces are engaged in a seesaw war in eastern Ukraine. It is difficult for Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory because, with a combat zone limited to the territory of Ukraine, Russia's domestic resources are capable of sustaining a long-term conventional war.As the longest and largest war on the European continent since the end of the Cold War, the Russia-Ukraine war has forced people to rethink the role of today's international system in maintaining world peace. The international community is calling for a revision of the existing international system to reshape self-correcting mechanisms.

Obviously, the current international system — with one superpower and several other significant powers — is unable to curb the choice of war by major countries. Over the past decade, especially, because of the rise of nationalism and the abuse of national security, competition between the major powers seems to have become increasingly irreconcilable.So, is multipolarity capable of curbing war? The answer is also no. This is because the competition between great powers in a multipolar world has become more uncontrollable. A case in point is the 1853-56 Crimean War.Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN under-secretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs, pointed out to the Security Council in November that the international collective security system for resolving or managing tensions and conflicts has been seriously undermined by the war in Ukraine, which in turn has made it more difficult to resolve the hostilities in Ukraine itself. Against this backdrop, calls for reform of the UN General Assembly are growing.

The structures within the international system reflect national strengths and perceptions and are difficult to self-correct. The international system, having one superpower and several other powers, is structurally imbalanced, and more powerful countries always try to control others, rather than sharing power with them. Therefore, under the circumstances of the Russia-Ukraine war, George Kennan's containment strategy has become the preferred option for the dominant power and its allies.In response to Russia's conduct of war in Ukraine, the containment strategy of the dominant power and its allies is to deter Russia militarily, increase its war costs and decouple it from the international community. Only when Russia meets the criteria set by the dominant power and its allies politically and economically will it become a partner and a member of the international system again.

The war is the result of a multiparty game, and Russia needs to be responsible for its war behavior today. Before the outbreak of the war, Russia had many opportunities to solve the problem through diplomatic means with Ukraine and the West.At the U.S.-Russia summit in Geneva in June 2021, the two countries agreed to a dialogue supporting bilateral strategic stability. However, less than a month after that summit, Putin referred to Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” in an article titled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” He claimed that Moscow had been “robbed” of its territory by the scheming West.In October 2021, the Biden administration's intelligence concluded that Russia was going to attack. In November that year, CIA Director William Burns traveled to Russia to meet with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to discuss the Ukraine issue. Despite intelligence from the United States that war was imminent, French and German leaders insisted that diplomatic opportunities still existed and worked to broker them with Russia and Ukraine. But these efforts ended when Russian missiles were aimed at Ukrainian targets.There is no doubt that under the current international system, countries can shift easily from competition to confrontation, and from confrontation to war. To circumvent war in an international system that is structurally out of balance, a state needs wisdom — the wisdom to avoid becoming a seeker of unlimited power and empire.