冷战结束后，世界全球化、多极化、信息化及和平发展的趋势在亚太地区表现显著，亚太成为全球最具发展活力和潜力的地区。

在20多年时间里，亚太地区秩序出现的积极重大变化主要表现在六个方面：

一、联合国宪章宗旨与原则及主要国际协议得到较好遵守与实行，亚太地区总体上保持了和平与安全。虽然地区内仍存在不少安全热点，但多数得到较好控制，严重军事冲突与战争得以避免。

二、有别于军事同盟的地区多边对话合作组织较快建立与发展起来，中国政府先后参加的即有十多个，最著名的如中国－东盟对话合作、APEC、东盟与中日韩合作、六方会谈、中日韩合作、东亚峰会、东盟论坛、东盟防长扩大会、上海合作组织、香格里拉对话会、香山论坛等。

三、地区各国间普遍建立各种伙伴关系，广泛开展政治、经济、军事、人文等各领域对话合作。地区内大国关系相对平衡稳定。

四、诸多多边、双边自贸区得以建立，各国经济相互依存大大加强。

五、地区非传统安全合作得到极大发展。

六、作为新兴大国，中国开始为地区提供公共产品。如提出“一带一路”合作倡议，推动沿线各国互通互联。又如建立亚投行，有力地促进了地区基础设施建设。

在此期间，唯一超级大国美国在地区秩序中的主导地位有所下降，东盟在区域合作中取得中心地位，中国在地区经济上的影响力日益上升。此外，虽然中国军力发展很快，但与美国相比仍有较大差距。与此同时，地区大国印度逐步崛起。

然而近年来，世界局势变化的消极面也在亚太地区日益显露。无论是去全球化逆流、大国地缘政治竞争再现，还是信息化及科学技术新发展带来的不确定性，都给冷战结束后的亚太新秩序带来重大挑战，使其面临不进则退的风险。

当前亚太地区秩序面临的挑战主要包括：

一、大国关系严重失衡。美日与俄罗斯已形成全面对抗，中美关系严重恶化，中日关系亦出现较大倒退，印度成为美日极力拉拢的对象。

二、美国在俄乌冲突爆发后仍坚持将中国视为主要战略竞争对手和最严峻、最长期的挑战，决心将印太作为打压和制衡中国的主战场，对华进行政治、经济、军事、意识形态等各个领域的战略竞争。为此，美国不惜以经济科技半脱钩甚至全脱钩打压中国，这将对地区产业链、价值链、供应链造成极大冲击与破坏。

三、随着美国大力加强地区双边军事同盟、发展五眼联盟、建立与加强QUAD和AUKUS、建立排他性的印太经济伙伴关系和芯片四方联盟等，冷战结束后建立起来的区域内多边经济安全对话合作机制受到较大冲击，一些对话合作停滞不前，一些步履维艰难以达成协议，一些甚至有中断危险。

四、地区热点普遍升温，发生危机与军事冲突的可能性上升，地区和平安全受到威胁。目前东亚最突出的热点一是台海，二是朝鲜半岛。不久前台海已爆发一场严重危机。在半岛，由于美中、美俄关系严重恶化，半岛无核化国际合作已严重削弱，面临爆发新核危机的巨大风险。地区战略稳定亦面临严重挑战。

五、军备竞赛趋势在地区内再现。

六、地区内众多国家面临美国要求选边站的巨大压力。

七、地区治理与各国非传统安全合作受到严重干扰。

面对国际形势的巨变和亚太地区秩序受到的严重挑战，中国和包括日本、韩国在内的地区各国不应持悲观态度，相反我们应有决心共同努力，通过加强全球与地区治理，克服全球化、多极化、信息化的消极或不确定因素，发扬其积极因素，使世界的和平发展趋势得以维护，使后冷战时期形成的亚太新秩序得以巩固和发展。事实上，新冠疫情终将过去；近几年地区内仍有CPTPP、RCEP的建立与发展，仍有上合组织的扩大及东盟+对话合作的持续；中国仍致力于发展相互尊重、和平共处、互利共赢的中美关系，中日、中韩经贸合作仍在发展；地区内的绝大多数国家都不愿在中美之间选边站。此外，最近的台海危机毕竟得到控制，没有发生俄乌战争那样的悲剧。面这一切，正是亚太地区的希望之所在。

After the end of the Cold War, the trends of globalization, multi-polarization, information technology expansion and peaceful development have been especially obvious in the Asia-Pacific, turning it into the most dynamic region with the greatest potential in the world.

Over the past 20 years, six major positive changes in the regional order have been clearly visible.

1. The purposes and principles of the UN Charter and major international agreements have been well observed and implemented, leading to peace and security in the region as a whole. Although there are still security hot spots, most of them are well under control, and serious military conflict has, for the most part, been avoided.

2. Regional multilateral dialogue and cooperation organizations, rather than military alliances, have been established and have developed rapidly. The Chinese government has been part of around a dozen such organizations. The best-known include the China-ASEAN dialogue and cooperation, APEC, ASEAN+3, the Six-Party Talks, China-Japan-ROK cooperation, the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Forum, ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Xiangshan Forum and others.

3. Countries in the region have developed various partnerships and conducted extensive dialogues and cooperation in the political, economic, military and cultural fields. Relations between major powers in the region are relatively balanced and stable.

4. Many multilateral and bilateral free trade areas have been established, and national economies have become increasingly interdependent.

5. Regional non-traditional security cooperation has been greatly developed.

6. As an emerging power, China has begun to provide public goods to the region. It has, for instance, put forward the Belt and Road Initiative to promote connectivity with countries along the routes. It also established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to give a powerful push to infrastructure construction in the region.

During the course of events, the United States, the sole superpower in the world, experienced a relative decline in its position of dominance in the regional order, while ASEAN has gained a central position in regional cooperation and China's influence in the regional economy has increased. In addition, while China's military power is developing rapidly, there is still a big gap when compared with the U.S. At the same time, India, another regional power, is gradually rising.

However, in recent years, some negative aspects of the huge changes in the world situation have also become increasingly visible in the Asia-Pacific. The rising trend of counter-globalization, the resurgent geopolitical competition between major countries and the uncertainties accompanying new developments in IT, science and technology are all challenging the new Asia-Pacific order that has emerged after the end of the Cold War. It seems a moment of either advancement or drawing back for the region.

The challenges facing the current regional order in the Asia-Pacific are mainly the following:

Relations between major countries are seriously imbalanced. The U.S., Japan and Russia have gone into all-out confrontation. China-U.S. relations have seriously deteriorated, and China-Japan relations have seen major setbacks. The U.S. and Japan are trying to draw India to their side.

Even after the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. still regards China as its major strategic competitor and the most severe and long-term challenge. It is determined to take the Indo-Pacific as the main battlefield to suppress and counter China, and it engages in strategic competition against China in political, economic, military, ideological and other fields. In this connection, the U.S.s does not hesitate to suppress China with semi or full economic and technological decoupling, dealing a major blow and damage to regional chains — industrial, supply and value.

As the U.S. strengthens its regional bilateral military alliances, develops the Five Eyes Alliance, establishes and strengthens the Quad and AUKUS and sets up the exclusive Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Chip4 alliance, many multilateral economic and security dialogue and cooperation mechanisms established after the end of the Cold War have been greatly impacted, with some in stagnation, some experiencing great difficulties in reaching agreements and some at the edge of interruption.

4. Regional hot spots are generally getting hotter, with a higher likelihood of a crisis or military conflict, thus threatening regional peace and security. At present, the most prominent hot spots in East Asia are the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula.A serious crisis occurred not long ago regarding Taiwan, and on the Korean Peninsula, because of the serious deterioration of U.S-China and U.S.-Russia relations, international cooperation on denuclearization has been seriously weakened. The peninsula faces a serious risk of a new nuclear crisis.

5.Regional strategic stability is seriously challenged.

6.Signs of arms race are emerging again in the region. Many countries in the region are under great pressure from the U.S. to make an either/or choice.

7. Regional governance and non-traditional security cooperation has been seriously disturbed.

In the face of great changes in the international situation and serious challenges to the regional order, China and other countries in the region, including Japan and South Korea, should not be pessimistic. On the contrary, we should be determined to work together to overcome negative or uncertain factors and expand the positive aspects of globalization, multi-polarization and information sharing through strengthened global and regional governance so that the trend of peace and development can be maintained and the new post-Cold War order can be consolidated and developed.After all, the COVID-19 pandemic will eventually be gone. The region has in recent years witnessed the creation of the CPTPP and RCEP, the expansion of the SCO and a continuous ASEAN+ dialogue and cooperation. China remains committed to developing its relationship with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, mutual benefit and win-win. China-Japan and China-ROK economic and trade cooperation is still developing. And the vast majority of countries in the region are reluctant to choose sides between China and the U.S. Moreover, the recent crisis over Taiwan was brought under control without a tragedy — unlike the Russo-Ukraine war. These are exactly where the hope lies.