在即将过去的2019年，美朝首脑进行了三次会晤，半岛局势较之2018年出现了明显的缓和。但从未来的趋势来看，仍然存在诸多不确定因素。

首先，朝鲜在与美国三次会晤之后，发现美国仍然未在停和机制转换上采取更加积极的步骤，因而表现出对美国的担心、怀疑和失望。近来不断试射导弹和火炮也是一种对美国不满的反应。朝鲜由于具备了更强的战略制衡力，有了平等谈判的新筹码，可以保持更大的耐心，并不急于为达成形式上的协议而匆忙做出决定，有可能会等待更为有利的条件。朝鲜不会首先使用核武器，但如果感到政权处于危险之中，就会铤而走险。只要美国不放弃对朝鲜的威胁，只要朝鲜始终感到外部威胁，它就不会弃核。

其次，三次会晤之后，特朗普已经充分意识到半岛问题的复杂性、艰巨性和长期性。一方面特朗普希望继续保持朝核问题缓和的势头，以作为其第一任期最为重要的外交成果；另一方面他又为朝核问题缓和无法更进一步而焦虑。关键在于，如果朝核问题虽然缓和，但问题得不到解决，特朗普会遭到美国国内的攻击；如果朝核问题出现新的危机，特朗普又可能失去已有的政治筹码。可以说，美国在朝核问题上是进退两难。加之，作为霸权国家，美国的战略聚焦一直难以保全，现在推出印太战略，战略重点南移，加上中东局势混乱，中美贸易摩擦，其面临的战略形势更趋复杂。因此，美国的对朝政策面临新的调整。有消息称，美国将重启美韩军演，这有可能给已经缓和的地区局势带来新的危机。

第三，虽然存在新的诸多不确定性，地区局势存在潜在的危机，但从综合因素看，半岛局势仍会总体稳定，危机可控。原因在于，首先，特朗普会加大极限施压，比如进行军事演习和经济制裁，但也不想因为半岛出现危机而失去其国内选举的政治筹码。因此，即使出现新的危机，其目的也是施压，而不是制造失控。其次，朝鲜自2018年4月20日召开七届四中全会，改变了其对外政策，致力于发展经济，这就需要改善与其他国家包括美国在内的大国关系。因此，虽然出现对美国不满的举措，但朝鲜的目的也是与美国继续保持接触。第三，中国主张地区稳定与缓和，推出“双暂停”主张。中朝关系的改善与强化有助于地区稳定和无核化进程。第四，日本东京奥运会将在2020年7月举办，它所带来的缓和氛围有助于促进各国采取总体缓和的政策。

因此，半岛局势虽然缓中有忧，但总体可控。不过，各国仍需要高度警惕，防止不确定性因素带来新的变数。未来要解决朝核问题，仍然要强调“双暂停”，共同努力相向而行，避免引发新的危机。首先，朝核问题必须与多边安全机制相关，给朝鲜等非结盟国家以安全机制上的保障。第二，朝核问题需要综合施策，需要给朝鲜发展经济的新机会和空间。对朝鲜而言，只要政权稳定能够有保障，它就会致力于发展经济，而经济是可以软化对外政策的。

Following three meetings between the leaders of the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea this year, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been notably eased. But many uncertain factors may emerge going forward.

First, the DPRK has expressed concerns and disappointment over America's insufficient measures to reach a peace treaty. Signaling its displeasure, it test-fired missiles and new artillery in recent months. Given its stronger strategic capabilities, it now has new bargaining chips for negotiations on equal footing and can afford to exercise patience. In other words, it's in no rush to reach a formal treaty and probably is looking for more favorable conditions. In addition, the North is not likely to use nuclear weapons first, but may do so in desperation if it discovers threats to the regime. The country will not abandon its nuclear programs as long as it senses external threats from the United States.

Second, U.S. President Donald Trump has come to realize the complex, difficult and persistent nature of the Korean Peninsula issue. On one hand, he wants to maintain the momentum behind the easing of tensions as part of his effort to create the most important political legacy of his first term. On the other hand, he is anxious about the fact that tensions have not subsided as expected. The question before him is that if the nuclear issue is not addressed, he will be under fire at home, despite signs of easing tensions in the region. And if other crises emerge, he may lose all the political capital he has gained.As a result, Washington finds itself in a dilemma. With its global presence, the U.S. may find it difficult to devote strategic resources to a specific region. With its Indo-Pacific strategy in place, it has shifted focus toward the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the Middle East remains mired in a mess, and the China-U.S. trade dispute makes the strategic situation in which it operates even more difficult to navigate. Therefore, U.S. policy toward North Korea needs adjustment. It is reported that the U.S. will resume joint military exercises with South Korea this year, which may raise new crises in the region.

Third, the Korean Peninsula will remain stable despite growing uncertainties and potential crises, as the risks are still controllable for the following reasons:First, although Trump will exert maximum pressure in the form of military exercises and economic sanctions, he does not want to lose his political bargaining chips in the coming domestic election, which a new Korean Peninsula crises could jeopardize. His moves, if any, will be designed to increase pressure on North Korea and will be addressed before they spiral out of control.Second, following the fourth plenary session of the DPRK's Seventh National Congress in April 2018, the country has adjusted its foreign policies and begun to focus on domestic economic development and improvement of relations with major countries, including the United States. It hopes to maintain contact, despite its unhappiness with American behavior.Third, China is a strong force for stability and easing of tensions in the region. Its “dual suspension” proposal and improved relations with the DPRK can contribute to denuclearization efforts.Fourth, the Tokyo Olympic Games, which will kick off in July 2020, will act as a catalyst that spurs countries to adopt conciliatory policies.

All things considered, the situation on the Korean Peninsula in 2019 is easing, and disturbing factors are controllable. But while potential crises may be under control, there could be unexpected outcomes. To solve the nuclear issue and avoid any new crises, China's “dual suspension” proposal must be leveraged. More important, success must be ensured on two fronts:1. The Korean nuclear issue must be addressed in the context of multilateral security mechanisms, and the DPRK and others must have security guarantees.2. The nuclear issue must be resolved in an integrated manner that gives the DPRK new opportunities and spaces for economic reform to drive its economy. For Pyongyang, as long as the stability of the regime is ensured, it will work to grow the economy. Economic development, in turn, can soften the country's foreign policy stance. After all, peace is critical to economic development.