美国国防部长马克·埃斯珀

在美国正式宣布退出《中程导弹条约》后，美国新任防长埃斯珀称，美国希望在亚洲部署中程导弹。这一言论很快在亚太地区引发广泛争议，绝大多数区内国家均不愿看到亚洲出现导弹竞赛的可怕场景。

部署中程导弹成为埃斯珀上任后首次访问亚洲的议题之一。然而，该提议并未得到美国盟友的积极回应。澳大利亚、韩国明确反对在其境内部署该装备，其他国家则不愿就此公开表态。中国、俄罗斯、柬埔寨等区内国家激烈反对该提议，认为这种做法对地区稳定带来消极影响。在得到这些反应后，美国并没有完全放弃它的设想。国务院负责军备控制的官员称，美国仍在与盟国讨论恰当的部署方式。8月底，美国试射了一枚中程导弹。

2019年8月18日，美国在加州试射一枚常规陆基巡航导弹。

在部署中程导弹上，美国与其亚太盟友的分歧要比其他军事议题更大。在美国看来，在亚太部署中程导弹可以达到三重目的，能够塑造对美国更为有利的区域战略环境。

目的之一是降低中国对美国的“非对称”威慑能力。美国军方认为，中国军方的反介入/区域拒止能力是美国在亚太所面临的主要军事威胁。这种策略削弱了美国基于海上作战平台和制空权所建立的军事优势，限制了美国在西太平洋军事行动的策略选择。美国化解该策略可选择两种方式，一种是利用技术优势显著削弱中国反介入能力，另一种则是采取对冲策略降低中国使用反介入能力的意愿。在中国周边部署中程导弹属于后一种方案。

目的之二是加深亚太盟友与美国的战略捆绑。在亚洲盟国部署中程导弹将加速亚太版本“北约”的形成，迫使亚洲盟国加入美国的作战指挥和态势感知体系。美国亚太盟友与中国、俄罗斯的关系也会因此恶化，亚太地区将加速形成两个高度敌对的军事阵营。

目的之三是为美国实现新一轮抵消战略提供资源支持和时间窗口。时间方面，美国部署中程导弹将在区内掀起一轮导弹竞赛，消耗美国主要竞争对手的资源，使其无法与美国展开科技竞赛。资源方面，中程导弹的存在将减少美国在亚太地区传统军备的投入，让美国能够将更多军费投入到中长期的科技研发上。

但是，对于广大亚太国家来说，美国在任何一个国家部署该武器都可能引发一场不可控的军备竞赛，进而危及区内所有国家的安全。

首先，亚太地区的地理条件特殊，导弹军备竞赛升级的风险更大。《中程导弹条约》签署前，美国和苏联曾经在欧洲大陆出现过严重的导弹竞赛，让整个欧洲都陷入危险之中。亚太地区的情况则更为复杂。亚洲不少国家由海洋或山脉所隔离，导弹不仅是各国面临最主要的安全威胁，也很可能成为各国最优先采取的威慑手段。正是基于这种普遍担忧，亚洲国家对于部署此类武器态度十分谨慎。美国在这一地区部署中程导弹则会打破这一微妙的平衡，增加各方的战略猜疑，从而导致该地区出现军备竞赛。

其次，部署中程导弹将激化区内潜在危机。冷战结束以来，相比世界上的其他地缘板块，亚太地区是最为安全的地区。这种和平基于各方都在尽力管控安全风险。在这一地区部署中程导弹将激化台湾问题和南海问题，很可能让各方在朝鲜半岛无核化上的努力前功尽弃。

最后，部署中程导弹将危及亚太国家的商业互信。美国部署中程导弹所引发的战略猜疑将损害各国的商业互信。这种冲击将直接表现在航道安全上。近期的伊朗危机中，伊朗方面曾透露可能利用导弹封锁中东石油通道。导弹竞赛可能会使类似的风险在亚太再现，这将给区内贸易带来毁灭性打击。

从埃斯珀此次亚太之行的效果看，美国低估了亚洲盟友对中程导弹这种以邻为壑策略的警惕。亚洲国家都清楚，美国本土并不会受到亚洲导弹竞赛的影响。这种策略只会弱化亚洲国家的战略自主性，不符合这些国家的长期利益。

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper

After the United States officially withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that the country hopes to deploy medium-range missiles in Asia. This remark quickly sparked widespread controversy, and most countries don't want to see the terrible scene of a missile race in the region.

The deployment of medium-range missiles had become one of issues in Esper's first visits to Asia. The U.S. proposal had not received a positive response from allies. Australia and South Korea explicitly opposed the deployment of the equipment in their territory, while other countries avoided public statements. China, Russia and Cambodia are fiercely opposed to the proposal, which they said would have a negative impact on regional stability. After receiving such feedback, the United States did not abandon this idea. Officials from the U.S. State Department said the U.S. is still discussing appropriate deployment methods with its allies. At the end of August, the U.S. military tested a medium-range missile.

On August 18, 2019, the United States tested a conventional land-based cruise missile in California.

On the issue of medium-range missiles, the United States has greater differences with its Asia-Pacific allies than on other military issues. From the perspective of the U.S. military, the deployment of medium-range missiles in the region can achieve a triple purpose and create a more favorable regional strategic environment.

One of the purposes is to reduce China's asymmetric deterrence capability against the United States. The U.S. military believes that the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability by China is the main threat to the U.S. China's A2/AD weakens U.S. military superiority based on maritime combat platforms and air supremacy, and would limit its freedom of maneuver during a conflict in the western Pacific. There are two ways for the U.S. to resolve this strategy. One is to use technology advantages to significantly weaken China's A2/AD ability, and the other is to adopt a hedging strategy to reduce China's willingness to use A2/AD. The deployment of medium-range missiles around China supports the latter option.

The second purpose is to deepen the strategic bundling of Asia-Pacific allies with the United States. The deployment of medium-range missiles among Asian allies will accelerate the formation of an Asia-Pacific version of NATO, forcing those allies to join the U.S. command and reconnaissance system. The relationship between the U.S. allies and both China and Russia will deteriorate. The Asia-Pacific region will form into two hostile military camps.

The third purpose is to provide resources and time for a new U.S. offset strategy. In terms of time, the deployment of medium-range missiles by the U.S. will launch a missile race in the region, consuming the resources of major U.S. competitors and making it impossible to compete with the U.S. in innovation. In terms of resources, the medium-range missiles will reduce U.S. investment in traditional armaments in the region, allowing it to invest more money in long-term technology research.

However, for Asia-Pacific countries, the deployment of medium-range missiles may trigger an escalating arms race that threatens the security of all countries in the region.

First of all, the geographical conditions in the Asia-Pacific region are special, and the risk of an upgraded missile arms race is great. Many countries in Asia are isolated by oceans or mountains. Missiles are the most important security threat, as well as the priority for deterrence. Based on this general concern, Asian countries are cautious about deploying medium-range missiles. The deployment of such missiles by the U.S. will break the balance in the region and increase the strategic suspicions of all parties.

Second, the deployment of medium-range missiles will intensify the potential for security crises in the region. Since the end of the Cold War, the Asia-Pacific region is the safest region in the world. Peace is based on the fact that all parties are trying to manage their security risks. The deployment of medium-range missiles in this region will intensify the Taiwan and South China Sea issues and is likely to end the positive trend of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Finally, the deployment of medium-range missiles by the U.S. will jeopardize commercial trust between Asia-Pacific countries and foster strategic suspicions. This kind of impact will be directly reflected in the safety of transportation routes. In the recent crisis, Iran warned that it might use missiles to block oil passage in the Middle East. A missile race in the Asia-Pacific region will allow similar risks to reappear, which will have a devastating effect on trade.

From the perspective of Esper's Asia-Pacific trip, the United States underestimated the vigilance of Asian allies on medium-range missiles. Asian countries know that the U.S. is immune to the Asian missile race. Such a strategy will only weaken the strategic autonomy of Asian countries and not serve their long-term interests.