中国将把宇航员送往月球。正如美国从“阿波罗登月计划”中获益良多一样，此举将令中国受益匪浅：令学生们对科学、技术、工程和数学的兴趣大增；推动公共和军事领域技术进步；给中国工业带来技术先进的光环效应，并收获随之而来的经济利益；增强地缘政治影响力从而提升国际威望。此外，有鉴于其拥有成功应对特殊挑战的能力，中国共产党在近14亿国民心中的地位将进一步提高。虽然西方新闻界在报道中暗示，或想当然地认为，这一登月计划已经实施，但事实并非如此。事实上，目前尚无已获“批准”的项目，但可以明确的是，中国正在接近这一目标。

2016年10月17日，神州十一号载人飞船从中国西北的酒泉卫星发射中心升空。（图片由中国日报社冯永斌提供）

2016年4月，很多媒体报道了中国载人航天工程副总指挥张育林中将在该机构官网发表的一篇文章，他在文章中提出，中国应该“提升能力，力争用15到20年时间实现载人月球探测目标”。《中国日报》将这看作是“中国首次确认载人登月探测计划”。如果张育林的时间表准确的话，那么中国宇航员将在2036年登上月球。

此后，2016年9月在墨西哥瓜达拉哈拉举行的国际宇航大会上，中国国家航天局副局长吴艳华概述了中国长期空间计划。他表示，载人登月计划目前“正在评估”。尽管技术细节仍在制定过程中，并且项目也仍未获官方批准，但考虑到中国对待空间探测，尤其是载人空间探测的谨慎、小心态度，如果不是因为政府即将批准这一计划，不可能出现大量公开讨论。过去多年来，通过“921计划”、“神舟计划”、“嫦娥工程”和“长征”系列运载火箭，中国已经发展出了载人登月计划所需的技术基础，如今是时候开花结果了。

中国最新这轮载人空间飞行项目始于1992年的“921工程”。此前，由于缺乏资金和技术，项目发展停滞不前，但到了1992年中国已作好准备。通过“三步走”的循序渐进发展，中国逐步发展并将最终实现建成大型、永久载人空间站的最高目标。

同时，美国及其国际合作伙伴也在建设国际空间站，不过美国过去和如今均将中国排除在外。事实上，随着沃尔夫修正案（以其发起者前国会众议员弗兰克·沃尔夫名字命名）被加入“2011年美国国家航空航天局（NASA）拨款法案”，NASA已被从法律上禁止和中国展开双边合作。

虽然中国一直以来都非常希望能够加入国际空间站的建设，但无奈只能独自推进自己的项目。美国失去了一个帮助塑造中国空间计划的机会，同时也制造了一个竞争对手。虽然部分中国政治家依然愿意和美国开展合作，但不少中国航天界人士却担心，有鉴于美国政治的反复无常，和美国开展合作反而会拖累中国的进度。

10月17号北京时间早晨7:30左右，中国在酒泉卫星发射中心发射了神州十一号宇宙飞船。这是中国第六次载人航天任务，也是这个国家成为太空强国的最新努力。宇航员金海鹏（右）和陈东将会在太空中度过30天。

“921计划”的第一步是实现载人空间飞行。随着“神舟五号”搭载杨利伟环绕地球飞行了14周之后，这一步已经实现。第二步始于2008年，“神舟七号”展示出更先进的空间飞行能力，包括太空行走、对接和空间交会等。“天宫”空间站是第二步的一部分，主要用作测试平台，包括测试生命支持技术、让宇航员训练操作、对接技术，并进行未来可能在空间站上进行的科学实验。一些实验还进行国际合作，例如瑞士和波兰研究机构就和中国合作开展“伽马射线暴”实验。10月16日，中国发射了搭载两名宇航员的“神舟十一号”，宇航员将在“天宫二号”停留33天。

第三步，中国计划建设一个更大的空间站，预计将由三个舱段组成：一个核心舱和两个实验舱，每个舱重量可达20吨。据中国载人航天工程总设计师周建平所说，“天宫二号”很重要的一个任务是，测试用来建设未来空间站所需的连接技术。“一旦空间实验室任务完成，中国将开始建设自己的空间站，”周建平说。他还表示，最快可能在2017年启动。如果能按期推进（虽然空间项目往往很难完全遵照时间表推进），空间站建设将会在2020年左右完成，并在2022年投入使用，设计使用寿命约为10年。

国际空间站预计将在2024年退役。届时，中国的空间站将成为事实上的国际空间站。显然是由于预见到这一情况，欧洲科学家如今已经开始学习汉语。

在开展“神舟”载人任务的同时，中国还在执行月球探测工程，利用机器人探测月球。这一计划通常被称为“嫦娥”。通过一系列越来越复杂的“嫦娥”任务，从探测飞行到月球车着陆，再到样本回收，中国正在掌握载人登月所需的技术。在2014年，中国的月球车“玉兔”吸引了全球目光。当这辆被赋予人性的月球车“死亡”后，还在中国社交媒体上引发哀悼，而当它再度复活时又让网友惊喜万分。虽然“复活”之后月球车已无法移动，但直到2016年它仍持续运作并向地球发回信号。

最后，中国还在研发可以向轨道发射空间站模块和进行星际飞行所需的新型运载火箭。重型运载火箭“长征五号”（比预计晚了两年多，将于2016年首飞）对多种空间任务来说是必需的，包括将空间站模块送入轨道。在2016年“长征七号”亮相后，有报道说，中国“改用危害更低的液氧煤油作为燃料，并启用了一个坐落在该国南部的新发射场，这可以令火箭利用地球自转速度来获得更大速度”。而“长征九号”则是按照美国“土星五号”月球火箭的级别来设计的，这也足以证明中国存在类似于“阿波罗计划”的登月计划。

不过，有充分的理由显示中国的月球计划并非是“阿波罗计划”的翻版，因为“阿波罗计划”的目的就在于让美国宇航员到达月球、四处看看，然后返回地球。而中国的月球计划主要是为了发展能力，以及基础设施，并持续发展迈向未来。尽管中国计划耗时更久，但最终来说它无疑将给中国带来巨大利益。“阿波罗计划”在尚未完成之前就被叫停了，这部分是由于公众不再有兴趣观看宇航员们不断重复之前的行动。在尼尔·阿姆斯特朗历史性地迈出那一步后，其余的登月行动其实纯粹是浪费，因为主要目的已经达成。

在一些实验性着陆和短暂停留后，中国的登月计划很可能将包括建立基地，并以此作为未来宇宙探索的前哨。中国航天界从“阿波罗计划”中学到了很多，例如不要像美国在冷战中那样，因一心追求在太空“打败俄国人”从而令项目过度卷入政治。因此，在比较美国和中国的载人太空计划时，难怪有人会引用《伊索寓言》中的“龟兔赛跑”以及更具有政治意味的“鹰与兔”。在两个故事中，都是速度更慢的那个最终获胜。

China is going to send astronauts—taikonauts—to the Moon. When they do, they want to reap all the many benefits that the United Stated accrued from their Apollo lunar program: increased student interest in science, technology, engineering, and math fields; technology spin-offs to the public and the military; the halo effects of technological prowess to Chinese industries, with consequent economic pay-offs; and international prestige with geopolitical influence through leadership inferences. Furthermore, the Chinese Communist Party will gain credibility regarding its ability successfully tackle “exceptional” challenges among China's nearly 1.4 billion citizens. While Western news articles have sometimes implied or assumed such a Moon mission was already underway, that has not been the case. In fact, there still isn't an “approved” program, but it is clear that China is getting closer.

Shenzhou XI manned spacecraft blasts off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Northwest China, Oct 17, 2016. [Photo by Feng Yongbin/chinadaily.com.cn]

In April 2016 there was a flurry of reporting after Lieutenant General Zhang Yulin, deputy commander of the China Manned Space Program posted on the organization's website that China should "raise its abilities and use the next 15 to 20 years to realize manned lunar exploration goals.” China Daily characterized the announcement as "the country's first confirmation of a manned lunar exploration program.” If Zhang Yulin's timeline were accurate, that would put a Chinese taikonaut on the Moon by 2036.

Then, at the September 2016 International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, Wu Yanhua, Deputy Administrator of the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) outlined China's long-term space plans. He described plans for a manned lunar mission as being “under evaluation.” Though technical details are clearly still being worked out and official approval still absent, China's prudent, politically risk-averse approach to space exploration, especially human exploration, would have precluded even this much open discussion were an officially approved program not forthcoming. Over many years, through Project 921 and its Shenzhou missions, the Chang'e program and the Long March launcher series, China has developed the building blocks requisite for a manned lunar mission, and is now ready to put them together.

China began working on its latest and current iteration of a human spaceflight program in 1992, Project 921. Earlier efforts were stalled due to lack of funding, technological know-how, or both, but in 1992 China was ready. As a three-step program, China would work incrementally toward a culminating goal of a large, permanently crewed space station.

At the time, the U.S. and its international partners were also working on what would become the International Space Station (ISS), though the U.S. specifically excluded China, and still does. In fact, through the insertion of what has become known as the Wolf Amendment, named after its originator (now retired) Congressman Frank Wolf, into the FY2011 NASA Appropriations Bill, NASA has been legislatively banned from working bilaterally with China.

While China has very much wanted to be part of what is known as the international family of spacefaring nations partnered on the ISS, it has nonetheless proceeded on its own. The U.S. lost the opportunity to help shape the Chinese space program and created its own competitor. Though some Chinese politicians would still like the opportunity to work cooperatively with the U.S., many in the Chinese space community fear that working with the U.S. would just slow them down due to the fickleness of U.S. politics.

China launched the Shenzhou-11 spacecraft, also known as “Heavenly Vessel-11,” into space around 7:30 am Beijing time on Oct.17 from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. It is China’s sixth manned space mission and the country’s latest bid to become a new space superpower. The astronauts Jin Haipeng (R) and Chen Dong will spend 30 days in space.

Step one of Project 921 was to demonstrate human spaceflight capability, which China accomplished with the Shenzhou 5 mission carrying Yang Liwei into space for 14 orbits in 2003. Shenzhou 6 in 2005 was a multi-day manned mission. Step two began in 2008 with Shenzhou 7 progressing to the demonstration of more advanced spaceflight capabilities, including space walks, docking, and rendezvous, over multiple missions. The Tiangong space laboratories have been part of step two as a test bed for life support technologies, to provide the crew practice with maneuvering and docking skills, and for science experiments of the type that might be carried out on the space station. Some experiments are international collaborations. Swiss and Polish institutions, for example, are working with the Chinese studying gamma ray bursts. On October 16, China launched a two-person Shenzhou-11 mission to include a 33-day stay on Tiangong-2.

Step 3, plans for a large space station, is expected to consist of three parts— a core module attached to two space labs, weighing about 20 tons. According to Zhou Jianping, chief engineer of China's manned space program, an important aspect of Tiangong-2 is verification of technology that will be used in conjunction with the construction of the space station. "Once the space lab mission comes to an end, China will start building our own space station," he said, adding this could start in as early as 2017. If the timeline holds – though space timelines rarely do—construction would be complete sometime around 2020 and the station could enter into service around 2022, with an initial design lifetime of 10 years.

Utilization of the ISS is currently scheduled to end in 2024. That would make China's space station the de facto international space station. Apparently anticipating such, European scientists are currently studying Chinese.

Concurrent with China's crewed Shenzhou missions, China has been conducting robotic exploration of the Moon through its Chinese Lunar Exploration Program (CLEP). The program is often referenced by the name of it spacecraft, Chang'e, a mythical Chinese Moon princess. Through a series of increasingly complex Chang'e missions, from a fly-by, to a lunar landing with a rover, and a planned sample return, China is mastering the capabilities needed for crewed missions. China's lunar rover, Yutu (Jade Rabbit), captured the world's attention in 2014. The anthropomorphized rover was mourned on Chinese social media when it “died,” and then prompted rejoicing when it came back to life. Though the rover was unable to move after its “revival,” it continued to operate and send messages back to Earth from its stationary position until 2016.

Finally, China is developing new launch capabilities necessary to lift the space station modules to orbit, and for inter-planetary travel. The heavy-lift Long March 5, more than two years behind schedule but scheduled for its first flight in 2016, is needed for a variety of space missions, including taking space station modules into orbit. With the debut of the Long March 7 in 2016, it was reported that China “transitioned to less hazardous liquid oxygen-kerosene fuels, and opened a new spaceport in the southernmost part of the country where launchers can gain more speed due to the Earth's rotational velocity.” The Long March 9 is intended as a Saturn-5 class launch vehicle, another indication of Apollo-like lunar plans.

It could reasonably be argued that the Chinese lunar program is not an Apollo redux, as the Apollo program was fashioned for American astronauts to go to the Moon, look around, and come back. China's lunar program, is fashioned for building capabilities—and infrastructure— to endure into the future. Though the Chinese approach has taken much longer, ultimately it will undoubtedly serve China well. Apollo was cancelled even before completion, at least partly due to lack of continued public interest in seeing astronauts mostly doing the same things as they had done before. After Neil Armstrong's historic first step, the rest was anti-climatic, because the goal was reached.

After a few test landings and short stays, it is likely that China's lunar plans will include a base, from which it can continue exploring the heavens. The Chinese space community learned a great deal from Apollo, including how not to get politically backed into in a corner as the U.S. did in its Cold War quest to “beat the Russians” in space. In comparing the U.S. and Chinese manned space programs, not surprising Aesop's fable The Tortoise and The Hare has been cited, as well as a more politically evocative The Eagle and The Hare. In both cases though, the slower ultimately wins.