从加沙到乌克兰，全球南方发出了自己的声音，但内部分歧威胁着它的崛起。

2024年5月13日，巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在巴西利亚的普拉纳尔托宫参加部长级会议。（档案照片：Evaristo Sa /法新社）

最近，巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦以加沙战争为由，撤回本国驻以色列大使。此举已超越两国外交争端的范畴。通过表明反对以色列的立场，卢拉也在强调自己作为全球南方重要代言人的地位不断提高。

全球南方是由发展中国家组成的多元化集团，它在一系列全球政治事务上发出越来越多的声音，包括以色列在加沙的战争。实际上，另一个著名的全球南方国家南非已经率先将以色列告上国际法院，指控其在加沙实施种族灭绝。

大国在倾听它们的声音。今年 3 月，中国外交部长王毅在北京举行的全国人民代表大会上表示，全球南方不再是世界事务中“沉默的大多数”。他说 ，这个由亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲和太平洋岛国的新兴国家组成的多元化集团，是“国际秩序变革的关键力量，是百年变局的希望所在”。

那么，2024 年是否会像他说的那样，成为“全球南方”合作的丰收年，成为亚非拉团结的新起点？这些国家的内部团结似乎在增强，至少体现在它们对全球南方的定义及其面临的共同挑战和关切方面，包括加沙、乌克兰、粮食安全、气候变化、债务减免以及对塑造世界秩序的全球机构进行改革。

然而，尚不清楚全球南方能否将共同关切转化为富有意义的行动。要做到这一点，它们必须解决内部分歧，应对因为大国竞争特别是中美关系恶化而走向分裂的世界。这并非易事。

如今，全球南方国家被迫做出它们不希望做出的选择。太平洋岛国地区正在上演的竞争就体现了这一趋势。随着中国与这些国家的经济和安全关系不断加深，美国及其盟伴希望通过恢复与这些国家的接触和开设新大使馆（包括在所罗门群岛和汤加），来抗衡中国的影响力。事实上，中美竞争是最近举行的所罗门群岛选举中的主要话题。

北京和华盛顿似乎有着相同的不满情绪。中国认为，美国在破坏自己的合理合作，无论是在太平洋、非洲还是拉丁美洲。最近访问巴布亚新几内亚时，外交部长王毅表示，“太平洋岛国有权同所有发展伙伴开展友好合作”。中国与该国签署了一系列协议，涉及可可和咖啡出口以及加强信息和通信技术领域的合作，而这些协议都受到西方的高度关注。王毅同时表示，太平洋岛国是岛国人民的家园，不是任何大国的“后院”。

美国也有自己的担忧。它认为，中国正利用与发展中国家日益扩大的经济合作，来削弱自己的影响力。中国积极推动世界事务多极化的努力得到了全球南方国家的支持，但在华盛顿看来，这是赤裸裸的旨在削弱美国影响力的行动。中美之间的互不信任日益加深，影响到了它们和许多第三国的关系。这些国家处于尴尬的境地，不得不做出原本不希望做出的决定。

当然，全球南方内部也存在分歧。以全球南方国家内部两个最知名成员国中国和印度为例，两国关系目前正处于40年前关系正常化以来最严重的下滑阶段。它们仍在参与金砖国家等多边论坛，但目前的双边关系状况显然不利于双方深化在拥有共同利益的多边事务上的接触。双边关系变得冷淡时，谈论多边合作就很困难，即使这种合作的空间显而易见。

“77国集团和中国”第三届南方首脑会议在乌干达首都坎帕拉举行，这是一个发展中国家联盟，旨在促进成员国的经济利益，并在联合国建立谈判能力。（图片：法新社）

中国和印度都已采取措施，旨在团结全球南方国家。明年，中国将主办两场重要的全球南方峰会：中非合作论坛和中拉论坛。两国都在金砖国家的扩容过程中发挥了作用，吸纳了埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗和阿联酋加入。今年，扩容后的金砖国家将在俄罗斯举行峰会。

全球南方国家感觉到，它们目前面临着一波“多重危机”。这种说法来自印度在2023 年 11 月主办的新德里 “全球南方之声”峰会上发表的宣言。这份宣言在西方世界没有引起太多关注，但值得仔细阅读。它强调了南半球国家的重点工作——就像读一份章程，上面罗列着它们关注的问题。

峰会上提出的一项主要问题，是地缘政治冲突对粮食和能源安全的影响。人们普遍认为，北方国家更在乎让南方国家在政治冲突中表明立场——当然最好与西方国家的立场一致——而不是解决这些冲突对发展中国家经济、民生和安全的影响。

典型案例便是围绕乌克兰战争对粮食和能源安全影响的争论不断升温，这反映出南北双方对这场危机的看法截然不同。同样，对于很多全球南方国家来说，加沙地带冲突持续，体现了西方世界的虚伪。这些西方国家以前会迅速谴责发展中国家的问题，现在却对其亲密盟友以色列的问题视而不见。

同样，在气候变化问题上，全球南方国家在去年11 月的新德里峰会上重申，“任何国家都不应该在消除贫困和保护地球之间做出选择”，认为这是强加给它们的。它们认为，西方国家没有履行其财政承诺，同时却要求发展中国家采取行动，并随时准备对气变问题的不作为追责。在南方国家看来，气候行动的未来应该以公平、气候正义和“共同但有区别的责任”原则为指导。

鉴于“全球南方国家面临的债务脆弱性日益增加”，它们还在推动建立灵活的债务重组框架。曾经主导世界经济的七国集团现在占全球经济的 30%，份额与金砖国家相同。全球南方认为，这种经济上的再平衡并没有带来相应的政治再平衡，最主要的场合便是联合国。

这些国家在寻求政治再平衡的共同立场时将面临更加复杂的挑战。因为全球南方国家的重要成员和支持者中国是联合国安理会五常之一，它和美国一起抵制和拖延安理会的改革，而巴西、印度和许多非洲国家都要求进行改革，希望联合国这个世界上最重要的安全机构能更具代表性和更加公平。当然，改革的前景似乎仍然遥远。

如果说全球南方的未来，以及这些国家在寻求团结的道路上能走多远，仍充满不确定性，那么可以肯定的是，全球南方的崛起反映出全球秩序的持续动荡。对于世界其他地区来说，这也为解决全球重大问题提供了全新的、有价值的视角。有人认为，随着全球南方国家的崛起，“国际领域的主要分歧”将出现在“占据主导地位的北方国家和愤愤不平的南方国家”之间，而不是“民主国家和独裁国家”之间。但是，全球南方国家发出自己的声音，并不意味着南北分歧注定会扩大，只要这种声音能够被听到。

From Gaza to Ukraine, the Global South is speaking out, but divides threaten its emergence.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a ministerial meeting at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, on May 13, 2024. (File photo: Evaristo Sa / AFP)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's recent decision to withdraw his ambassador from Israel over the war in Gaza was more than just a diplomatic spat between two nations. Lula, by taking a stand opposing Israel's actions, was also underlining his growing status as a key voice of the “Global South.”

A disparate grouping of developing nations, the Global South is increasingly making its voice heard in global politics on a range of issues, including Israel's war on Gaza. Indeed, it was another prominent Global South nation, South Africa, that took the lead in bringing a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice, accusing it of committing genocide in Gaza.

Big powers are listening. The Global South is no longer “a silent majority” in world affairs, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in March during the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing. This diverse grouping, comprising emerging nations in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), is, as he described, a “key force for reforming the international order and a source of hope as the world undergoes profound changes unseen in a century.”

Will 2024 indeed be remembered as “a year of harvest,” as Wang put it, for the Global South and “a new starting point for unity?” There certainly appears to be a growing sense of unity, at least when it comes to how the Global South is defining its shared challenges and concerns on issues ranging from Gaza and Ukraine to food security, climate change, debt relief and, more broadly, reforming the global institutions that shape the world order.

However, it is less clear whether this broad grouping can translate shared concern into meaningful action. To do so, it will have to navigate differences from within as well as a world divided by great power rivalries – marked, especially, by worsening relations between the two biggest powers, China and the United States. This will be no easy task.

Global South countries are today being pushed to make choices they would rather avoid. The current competition underway in the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) exemplifies this trend. As China's economic and security ties with these nations deepen, the U.S., along with its allies and partners, is intensifying its efforts to counterbalance China's influence by renewing engagement and opening new embassies, including in the Solomon Islands and Tonga. Indeed, China-U.S. rivalry emerged as a major talking point during the recent elections in the Solomon Islands.

Both Beijing and Washington have grouses that appear to mirror the other's. From China's perspective, the U.S. is now looking to derail what Beijing sees as legitimate cooperation, whether in the Pacific or Africa or Latin America. "Pacific Island countries have a right to invite friendly cooperation with all development partners," Foreign Minister Wang said during his recent visit to Papua New Guinea, where both sides signed a range of agreements, from the export of cocoa and coffee to working more closely on information and communication technology – agreements scrutinized by the West. "Pacific Island countries are the home of the people in this region,” he said. “They are not the backyard of any major country.”

The U.S. has its concerns too. From America's point of view, China is using its broadening economic cooperation with the developing world to actively undermine American influence. China's push to increase multipolarity in world affairs – a push backed by much of the Global South – is seen in Washington as a thinly-veiled attempt to dilute U.S. influence. This deepening distrust between China and the U.S. is now affecting their relationships with many third countries, now put in the uncomfortable position of having to make choices they didn't sign up for.

To be sure, there are also differences from within. Consider two of the Global South's arguably most prominent members, China and India, currently navigating the worst downturn in bilateral relations since they normalized their relations four decades ago. While China and India do remain engaged in multilateral fora such as BRICS, their current state of bilateral relations is certainly not conducive to deepening engagement on multilateral issues where they share undeniable common interests. But when ties at the bilateral level are frosty, it is difficult to talk about multilateral cooperation, even if the space for it is certainly evident.

The G77 plus China, which is holding its third summit in Kampala, is a coalition of developing countries designed to promote its member states’ economic interests and create negotiating capacity in the United Nations. (Photo: AFP)

Both China and India have taken steps aimed at bringing Global South countries together. China, in the coming year, will host two key Global South summits – the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) as well as the China-Latin American and Caribbean Forum (China-CELAC). Both countries have played a role in the expansion of BRICS, bringing on board Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, with the newly expanded BRICS set for a key summit this year in Russia.

The feeling among Global South countries is that they are currently facing a wave of “multiple crises,” as a statement declared following the “Voice of the Global South Summit” hosted by India in November 2023 in New Delhi. The declaration that followed the summit did not get much attention in the West, but it merits close reading. It highlights the key priorities for southern hemisphere nations, reading almost as a charter listing the issues that matter to them.

One key concern flagged at the summit was the impact on food and energy security from geopolitical conflicts, with the widespread impression that the Global North is more concerned about getting the Global South to take a stand on political conflicts – in alignment, of course, with Western positions – while not addressing how those conflicts were impacting the economies, livelihoods and security of the developing world.

The evolving debate surrounding food and energy security impacts from the war in Ukraine is a case in point, reflecting somewhat contrasting perspectives of the crisis from the North and the South. Likewise, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has become emblematic of Western hypocrisy for many in the Global South, with countries that were quick to denounce developing countries' shortcomings now turning a blind eye to one of their close allies.

Similarly, on climate change, Global South countries reiterated in the November summit, that “no country should have to choose between fighting poverty and fighting for our planet” – a choice that many nations believe is being foisted on them. They see the West as not living up to its financial commitments, but at the same time demanding action and all-too-ready to apportion blame for inaction. The future of climate action, in the South's view, should be guided by the principles of equity, climate justice and “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.”

In light of “increasing debt vulnerabilities faced by countries of the Global South,” they are also pushing the need for flexible debt restructuring frameworks. The G7, which once dominated the world economy, now accounts for 30% of it – the same as the BRICS nations. The Global South view is that this economic rebalancing hasn't been matched by political rebalancing, starting at the UN.

Finding a common position on political rebalancing promises to present an even more complex challenge, considering that one prominent Global South member and supporter – China – is among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with the U.S., resisting and delaying UNSC reforms, which countries, including Brazil, India and many in Africa, are demanding, to make the world's most important security institutions more representative and fairer. That prospect, of course, still appears remote.

If the future of the Global South – and how far its constituents can go in their search for unity – still remains far from certain, what is clear is that its emergence reflects the continuing churn in the global order. For the rest of the world, it also presents a new – and valuable – perspective on the global issues that matter. Some have suggested that with the emergence of the Global South, “the central divide in the international sphere” will be between “the dominant North and the aggrieved South,” rather than that between “democracies and autocracies.” The Global South finding its voice does not necessarily imply a widening of the undeniable divides that exist between the North and the South – so long as the voice is heard.