美国总统选举竞争激烈。民主党候选人、原副总统拜登当选已经基本确定，尽管特朗普总统拒绝承认并表示要诉诸司法程序，但从目前情况看其论据严重不足，翻盘可能性较小。然而，两位候选人获得的选票数均超过奥巴马当选得票数，且两人选票数极其接近。这一方面反映了美国政治和社会的高度分裂和两极化，另一方面也意味着新总统当选后，这种内部对立的弥合仍然任重道远。

作为世界上唯一的超级大国，大选后美国外交战略上的动态对国际关系影响极大。拜登在竞选活动中已经明确展示出重回多边主义的姿态，但他并未提及外交战略的重点和优先地区是什么。2009年，奥巴马政府上台后明确提出“亚洲再平衡”战略，笔者认为，从地区重点来说，拜登新政府在外交上将朝着“欧洲再平衡”方向发展。

“欧洲再平衡”的必要性

此次美国大选后，国际反应中一个非常让人惊讶的现象是，在美国尚未正式确认谁最终获胜的情况下，美国的主要盟友就以直接或间接方式承认拜登为美国下一任总统。大选后，英国、法国、德国、澳大利亚、日本等国的首脑以推特、脸书或接受媒体采访等形式对拜登表示祝贺。即使曾被拜登调侃为“克隆了特朗普”的英国首相约翰逊，也迅速在美联社采访中表达了要与拜登新政府合作的明确意愿。这种反常现象一方面说明美国的盟友，特别是欧洲国家对特朗普政府的确已经到了忍无可忍的地步，另一方面也反映了他们试图迅速给拜登以国际承认，通过对美国国内政治施加“外压”以尽快结束乱局的强烈愿望。美国皮尤调查中心在2020年夏天进行的调查显示，认为美国总统对国际形势有正确认识的被调查者在德国仅占10%，法国为11%，这与奥巴马时期的超过80%相比几乎是自由落体式下降。

当选总统拜登同样很清楚，对美国外交来说，过去四年受损最大的不是美中关系，而是美欧关系。欧洲国家经营多年的外交成果，如应对全球气候变化的《巴黎协定》、伊朗核问题框架协定等，都被特朗普政府无情抛弃。此外，美欧自由贸易投资协定谈判已停止。美国还以撤离驻德国美军相威胁，要求欧洲盟友支付高额军费。美国撤出叙利亚导致当地局势进一步恶化，更使大量难民流入欧洲。对于拜登来说，要在外交方向上重回多边主义和国际合作，无论是伊朗核问题、气候变化还是安全保障，首先都必须要修补大西洋两岸关系。因此，拜登在11月10日一天之内连续与英法德三国首脑进行了电话会谈。拜登在电话会谈后对媒体说，美国回来了，美国不孤立。他还披露，英国首相在电话中已经邀请他参加2021年11月在伦敦举行的第26届联合国气候大会（COP26）领导人峰会。

“欧洲再平衡”对中美关系的影响

正如当年奥巴马提出“亚洲再平衡”不意味着美国在外交上会放弃欧洲，拜登的“欧洲再平衡”同样不会放弃亚洲，只是可能将更多精力投入到欧洲地区。因为只有抓住欧洲这个焦点，美国外交才会有较大转机。那么，这个转向对于美国与亚太的关系特别是对美中关系有什么影响呢？

第一，笔者认为，美国新政府的“欧洲再平衡”对中美在多边领域合作的空间扩大、成果增加是一个利好，对缓和中美双边关系的紧张有益。最值得期待的就是在《巴黎协定》履约问题上，中美欧三边共同引领，将为世界各国尽快设立各自的减排目标提供巨大推力。中美欧在WTO的改革和强化上增加合作，将为世界贸易带来更多确定性。中美欧在伊朗核问题上重回多边合作轨道，将有助于为大国协调管控重大地区热点问题积累更多经验。这些通过多边合作发展的互信和协调习惯，反过来又会对中美双边关系产生良性影响。

第二，与此同时也要看到，美国新政府的“欧洲再平衡”也可能对中国产生新的战略压力。欧洲对特朗普的“美国优先”和单边主义做法极其不满，对他在对华政策上一味打压、征收高额关税的反自由贸易原则做法也颇有微词。然而，欧洲对中国在市场准入、国有企业改革等方面的不满与美国是一致的，在香港等问题上美欧立场也相近。这意味着美国的“欧洲再平衡”并不等于其战略重心会从特朗普时代的对华全面打压完全转移。

面对美国外交可能出现的“欧洲再平衡”，如何努力顺应新形势，趋利避害，尽可能地扩大中美欧的合作空间，提高合作质量，就显得十分重要。逆水行舟，不进则退。

The 2020 United States presidential election was a hotly contested game. The Democratic candidate, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, has won the election but President Donald Trump refuses to concede defeat and is attempting to overturn the result through ill-fated legal actions. There is virtually no chance that his poorly supported arguments will change anything.That said, both candidates received more votes than Barack Obama, and their vote tallies are extremely close — within about 3 percent. This reflects the high degree of political and social division and polarization in the United States, and it means that much remains to be done to heal the huge internal antagonism even after the election of a new president.

Amid the many commentaries and discussions, the question of U.S. strategic and diplomatic direction has risen to great importance. The United States is the world's sole superpower, and the strategic direction of its diplomacy and development of its strategic priorities have significant implications for international relations. On foreign affairs, Biden made it clear on the campaign trail that he would shift the focus of U.S. strategy toward multilateralism, although he didn't specify what strategic focus or regional priority the U.S. would adopt if he entered the White House. When Obama took office in 2009, he put forward a strategy known as “rebalance to Asia.” I believe a Biden administration will work to rebalance to Europe as a priority region.

Why does the U.S. need to rebalance to Europe?

After the election, a rather surprising international reaction is that major U.S. allies have recognized Biden, directly or indirectly, as the next president of the United States because of the electoral math, even before the results were officially certified. For example, the heads of state of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia, and Japan congratulated Biden in the form of tweets and Facebook posts or in interviews with the media. Even British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whom Biden has called a “Trump clone,” quickly signaled his willingness to work with the new administration in an interview with the Associated Press.The anomaly indicates that U.S. allies, especially European countries, have indeed lost patience with the Trump administration. Recognizing Biden as the president-elect shows their overwhelming desire to end the international chaos caused by the United States by placing external pressure on the country's domestic politics.A public opinion survey by the Pew Research Center in the summer of 2020 found that only 10 percent of German respondents and 11 percent of French respondents believed that President Trump had a correct understanding of the international situation — a virtual free-fall from the more than 80 percent when Barack Obama was in office. Even among America's strong allies in Asia, the decline has been more than 50 percent — 53 percent in Japan and 61 percent in Australia.

President-elect Biden knows well that the biggest victim of U.S. diplomacy over the past four years has not been U.S.-China relations but U.S.-Europe relations. Diplomatic gains that European countries made through years of tireless effort have been abandoned by Trump, including the Paris agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. In addition, talks on a bilateral free trade deal have been frozen for years. The United States coerces its European allies to contribute more to military defense by announcing it would pull its soldiers out of Germany. And the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria has worsened matters locally and led to a massive influx of refugees to Europe.Biden knows that the top priority is to mend transatlantic relationships before he can shift the focus of U.S. diplomacy toward multilateralism and international cooperation on such issues as Iran's nuclear program, climate change and international security. So he spoke by phone with the leaders of the UK, France and Germany on Nov. 10 and then told reporters, “We're going to be back in the game. It's not America alone.” He also disclosed that the UK prime minister had invited him to the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, set for November 2021.

What does Rebalancing to Europe mean for China?

The rebalance to Asia strategy doesn't mean that the United States will abandon its diplomacy in Europe. Similarly, a rebalance to Europe won't necessarily mean the U.S. will stop focusing on Asia. It will simply devote more resources to Europe. Why? Because only by stabilizing relations with Europe can the U.S. achieve a big turnaround in its foreign affairs. Then what does this strategy mean for U.S. ties with Asian countries, especially China?

First, a rebalance to Europe is a positive development for China-U.S. relations because both countries will have more opportunities to expand areas of cooperation and success at the multilateral level. In addition, it has the potential to ease tensions between the two countries. The most anticipated story is that China, the United States and Europe take the lead in the implementation of the Paris agreement, thus providing a strong incentive for other countries to establish their own emission reduction targets. Their enhanced cooperation on the reform and improvement of the World Trade Organization promises to add certainty there. Also, their cooperation on the Iran nuclear issue will produce more experience on how the world's major countries address hot-button issues in the Middle East. Mutual trust and coordination that the three sides achieve in the process of cooperation will in turn produce a positive impact on China-U.S. relations.

Second, Rebalancing to Europe may put new strategic pressure on China. Europe is most displeased with Trump's foreign policy stance of “America first,” as well as its unilateral actions. It is also critical of Trump's policy of suppressing China and anti-free trade principles characterized by protectionism in the form of high tariffs.At the same time, Europe shares U.S. dissatisfaction with China when it comes to market access and the reform of state-owned enterprises. It also takes a similar position on Hong Kong. All this means that in adopting a Rebalance to Europe strategy, the Biden administration will continue to place enormous pressure on China across the board, as the current administration does, and this pressure will not be slackened in an absolute sense.

For China, it is imperative to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks when expanding cooperation with the United States and adapting to a potential rebalance to Europe strategy. In this sense, the quality of cooperation between China, the United States and Europe will be a critical indicator of international relations once Biden takes office. As the old Chinese saying goes, “A boat sailing against the current must forge ahead or it will be driven back.”