跌宕起伏的中美关系是当前国际社会十分关切的一组大国关系。为遏制竞争对手，特朗普政府出台了一系列针对中国的政策法案。或许特朗普政府没有考虑到，在中美建交后的40多年里，中国已经深深融入国际经济体系，并对全球经济产生着越来越大的影响。面对中国选择的道路，特朗普政府认为，中国的发展模式不符合美国国家利益，挑战美国主导的全球自由主义秩序。于是，特朗普政府选择了强硬的对华政策，中美关系跌入谷底，中国的生存空间被严重挤压。

国家生存空间是历史和现实双重作用下形成的。在自助的国际体系中，每个大国都会有自己想象和现实存在的生存空间，并根据其重要性分为核心、中心和边缘空间，其中与大国相邻的周边地区便是核心生存空间。当然，我们今天所说的生存空间概念，并不是有些学者所指的国家为了生存而寻求地理扩张，而是指在特定地理空间内，国家能够实现安全和可持续发展的有机统一。

尽管在地理上拥有一定优势，但在当前国际关系中，中国的生存空间压力巨大。在白宫公布的《美国对中国的战略方针》（2020年5月）中，东北亚、东南亚和南亚地区被美国列为对华战略的重点地区，并实施了不同的战略。在东北亚地区，在加强与日本和韩国防务合作的同时，不断分化中俄关系孤立中国；在东南亚地区，试图恢复美国的影响力；在南亚地区，下注美印关系，希望以此牵制中国。甚至在俄罗斯主导的中亚地区，特朗普政府也发起政策攻势，出台新的中亚战略，以加强与中亚国家的关系。

中美战略竞争逐步聚焦中国周边地区，外交斡旋已很难逆转。在白宫对华政策的推动下，2020年以来美军的飞机、军舰在中国周边海域频繁穿越并进行实弹演习。为应对地区危机，中国选择“全力加强练兵备战，坚定维护国家主权、安全、发展利益”。中美两国的政策立场无疑增大了双方发生地区冲突的可能性。为管控两国冲突升级，中美肯定会通过外交斡旋尝试解决问题。

据报道，中国负责外交事务的杨洁篪与美国国务卿蓬佩奥举行会晤，地区稳定问题是会晤的重要议题。但是，从中美两国政府所处的舆论环境、立法环境和行政环境来看，外交斡旋很难“刹住”中美关系下滑的趋势，中美关系将面对更大的、来自两国内部的挑战。

毋庸置疑，稳定地区秩序是中国的首要任务。中国需要把外交重心投放到地区层面，尤其是稳定好核心生存空间的秩序。由于不同地区存在着不同的地区极性（指受国家实力影响且只在特定地区发生作用的地区性权力结构），中亚是俄罗斯主导下的中美并存的地区权力结构；东南亚是美国主导下的日本、东盟、中国并存的地区权力结构；东北亚是美国主导下的中、俄、日、韩并存的地区权力结构。因此，外交重心向地区转移时，需要考虑地区极性。在充分考虑上述条件的情况下，若要稳定地区秩序，中国需要做好以下工作：

增加信息透明度。引发地区冲突的原因很多，其中胜利的幻觉和廉价战争的错觉十分常见。由于缺少足够的信息来源，特朗普政府常常高估中国的战略意图，却低估中国民族主义情绪。在信息透明度上，中国要大力推动信息管理改革和创新。在有法可依的前提下，营造更加宽松的舆论环境，使中国与美国及与世界的信息交流呈现出“官民并举”的舆论格局，从而降低地区冲突的可能性或烈度。

遵循合理义利观。正确的义利观被定义为中国外交理论的思想创新，但是在具体的外交实践中经常会重“义”轻“利”，意识形态上的考虑多于国家利益，从而常常造成被动的外交局面。因此，中国要遵循合理的义利观，坚持国家利益至上的国际合作原则，通过合作增强中国的生存空间。

稳固上海合作组织地区，平衡其他地区压力。在中美战略竞争的态势下，上合组织地区的战略意义增大。在“一带一路”倡议下，陆、空、海、数四位一体的互连互通格局正逐步在欧亚大陆形成，上合组织地区则是重要的先行者，是中国与欧洲国家保持密切关系的桥梁。据中国商务部统计，2019年中国与欧洲贸易总额为7449亿美元，其中与欧盟国家的贸易总额为7051亿美元；中国与欧亚12国（原苏联加盟共和国）贸易总额为1756.62亿美元。上合组织的安全合作也为中国西部地区发展和稳定提供了重要保证。不过，随着国际形势的变化，中国需要推动上合组织进行必要的改革，以顺应新的需要，特别是要提高上合组织秘书处独立议事的能力，使该组织在多边关系上发挥更大作用。

中国需要清醒地认识到，美国对中国认知不协调的现状很难改变，特别是特朗普政府的对华政策已形成巨大的沉没成本，很难回头，中国需要稳定地区秩序来应对更大的危机。

The ups and downs in relations between China and the United States have drawn much attention from the international community. To rein in his rival, U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration have introduced a series of policies and actions against China.Perhaps it has not considered the fact that China has been deeply integrated into the international economic system and enjoys growing influence on the global economy in the over the 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic ties with the U.S.Given the path chosen by China, the Trump administration believes the Chinese development model is not in America's national interest and that it challenges the U.S.-dominated global liberal order. It has therefore chosen a tough China policy, leading to a dramatic downturn in relations and a severely compressed living space for its rival.

The living space of any state is always the result of both its history and current reality. In the international system of self-help, each major country has its own living space of imagination and reality, and that space can be divided into the core, the center and the periphery, with declining importance. The surrounding areas naturally form the core living space.When I use the term “living space,” it is not about a state seeking geographical expansion for survival, as some scholars have suggested. Rather, it is about the unity of security and sustainable development that a state achieves within a given geographical space.

Despite some geographical advantages, China's living space is under great pressure in current international relations. In its “Strategic Approach to China” released in May 2020, the White House identified Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia as key regions and has applied different strategies to each.In Northeast Asia, the Trump administration attempts to divide China and Russia and to isolate China while strengthening defense cooperation with Japan and South Korea. In South East Asia, it is trying to restore U.S. influence.In South Asia, it is betting on relations with India as a way to contain China. Even in Russia-dominated Central Asia, the U.S. has launched a policy offensive. To strengthen ties with Central Asian countries, the U.S. administration has unveiled a new strategy for that region.

Strategic competition between China and the U.S. has gradually spread to areas surrounding China, and it is difficult to reverse the trend through skillful diplomacy. Driven by the White House, American military aircraft and warships have frequently traversed waters around China and even conducted live-fire exercises. In response to the crisis situation in the region, China has chosen to make every effort to strengthen military training and enhance war preparedness in firm protection of its sovereignty, security and development interests.Divergent policy positions have undoubtedly raised the possibility of a regional conflict between the two countries. To manage and control potential conflict escalation, China and the U.S. will have to try to resolve their problems through diplomatic good offices.

It is reported that senior Chinese official Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Hawaii. However, given existing public opinion, as well as the legislative and administrative environments, such diplomatic exchanges can hardly serve as a brake for the declining relationship, which will confront greater internal challenges in both countries.

Undoubtedly, stabilizing the regional order must be China's top priority. It needs to focus its diplomacy at the regional level — especially to stabilize the order within its core living space.Regional polarity — meaning the regional power structure that is affected by the strengths of regional countries and functions only within the relevant region — exhibits different features in different places. For example, Central Asia is dominated by Russia with the presence of both China and the U.S.; Southeast Asia is dominated by the U.S., with the presence of Japan, ASEAN and China; and Northeast Asia is dominated by the U.S. with the presence of China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. In this connection, regional polarity must be taken into account when the diplomatic center of gravity is shifted to the relevant regions. On top of the these conditions, China needs to do the following to stabilize the regional order:

• Increase information transparency.Among the many causes of regional conflict, illusions of easy victory and cheap wars are common. Without adequate sources of information, the Trump administration has often overestimated China's strategic intentions while underestimating its nationalist sentiments.In terms of information transparency, China should vigorously promote information management reform and innovation. A more relaxed public opinion environment should be cultivated within the premises of law so that information exchanges with the U.S. and the rest of the world will feature mixed perspectives of both the government and the people, thus reducing both the possibility and potential intensity of regional conflicts.

• Follow a balanced approach for both the greater good and self-interest.This idea has been hailed as a thought innovation in Chinese diplomacy. In specific diplomatic practices, however, the stress has often been put on the “greater good” rather than “self-interest,” with ideological considerations overwhelming national interests, landing our own country in awkward situations. Therefore, China should follow a more balanced approach. It should always put national interests first in international cooperation and expand its living space through cooperation.

• Consolidate the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) region to balance pressures in other regions.Given the strategic competition with the U.S., the strategic significance of the SCO region has increased. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, connectivity of land, air, sea and digital is gradually taking shape on the Eurasian continent, with the SCO region as an important forerunner and a bridge between China and Europe.According to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, trade with Europe totaled $744.9 billion in 2019, including $705.1 billion with EU members. Trade with 12 former Soviet republics was $175.7 billion.The SCO, also through its security cooperation, underpins development and stability in western China. However, as the international situation changes, China needs to push the SCO for necessary reforms to meet new needs. In particular, the capacity of the SCO secretariat to conduct independent deliberations should be enhanced so that the organization will be enabled to play a greater role in multilateral relations.

American cognitive dissonance with regard to China is difficult to change, and China must be sober-minded and realistic. Moreover, given the huge sunk cost in the Trump administration's China policy, it will be hard for the U.S. government to reverse its course. Therefore, China needs to stabilize the regional order in preparation for major crises.