历史上，由于地缘或国力的原因，日本、中国是很有忧患意识的国家，现在美国也变成了这样的国家。美国的恐惧来自对失去霸权的担心。美国对于霸权是十分在意的，因为美国的一系列优越感都与其霸权相关。美国认为，它有权享受与其他国家不一样的奢侈生活，在国际事务中可以例外。美国可以批评、指责或干预其他任何国家的国内事务，只要愿意。所有这些特殊的想法均与美国的霸权心态相关，而如果美国的霸权衰落或失去，它的独一无二的生活方式就将失去。这就是美国恐惧的深层原因。

美国对霸权丧失的历史性恐惧从1991年苏联解体就已经开始。那时候美国认为世界进入了单极世界，美国必须在这个特定的历史机遇中强化自身，加大全球布局，从而使霸权得以持续。那时候的恐惧还是一种对远景的可能担心，而自2008年和2012年之后，这种担心变得越来越具体现实了。中国威胁变成美国恐惧的具象，且这种威胁不再只是一种潜在的挑战，而是变成了必须解决的战略竞争问题。

美国预设中国的潜在威胁为眼前威胁，首先是国内需要。美国国内需要外部敌人，美国的军工企业和国防开支都离不开外部敌人，美国的两党政治竞争也需要外部因素来平衡和统筹。如果说俄罗斯还只是美国的军事威胁，那么中国就被当成了美国的综合竞争对手。所谓的外部威胁还可以作为美国为自身失误寻找借口的直接原因，比如美国经济出现问题，美国的失业，美国的制造业萎缩，这些都可以从竞争对象中国身上找原因，以平息选民和在野党的压力。

还就是国际战略需要。美国实力相对下降，影响力也相对下降，在实力决定对外战略的前提下，美国应该收缩其防线，但美国的外部威胁在上升，战略竞争对手的能力也在提升，美国又必须强化对外施压。如何让美国国内确认美国需要对外施压，理由显然也是中国崛起。有趣的是，美国一方面渲染中国威胁论，另一方面又不断强调美国军力占有绝对优势。但美国对手太多，难以聚焦，这是美国忧虑所在。当美国把焦点锁定中国的时候，它会发现在全球范围内有许多问题让美国难以取舍。这也成为美国战略不确定和战略混乱的原因。美国作为全球霸权，世界上许多问题都与其霸权稳定相关，但美国已经感到力所不及，于是夸大地将这些问题与中国无端地联在一起。中国没有想谋取霸权，但美国担心霸权丧失，于是中国成了美国的战略竞争对手。

中国改革开放40年取得了很大成就，中国需要从这些成就中提取未来发展的信心，但并不是说中国已经成熟到可以充当世界领袖。中国不仅没有这种愿望，也没有这种能力。中国绝没有自信到妄自尊大的程度。不能把中国在国际社会中勇于担责的义举，当成中国谋取霸权的证据。当今时代是一个特殊的历史时期，中国尚未真正强大，而美国未老先衰，因而有一种日薄西山的焦虑。其实问题还在美国自身。

美国对自身发展真的失去信心了吗？如果中国发展模式是不正当的，不合法的，那么应该是没有前途的，美国应该没有必要担心。如果美国认为自身模式出了问题，而别国模式也有可取之处，美国通过纠错借鉴就可以了，何必杞人忧天？当然，美国承认自身不足这一点很难，但是美国为了自身发展，理应有勇气面对自身不足并加以改正。世界各国都愿意看到美国通过合理纠错的方式继续强大。压制别国是一种手段，但不是根本的手段，发展自己才是根本之路。

美国没有使用所谓国家资本主义，但美国一直在使用霸权的方式统治世界。美国是有特权的，美国是独断专行的，而中国没有这样的可能性，更不可能通过战争来替代美国的霸权。难道中国有可能仿照美国的对苏联战略使美国和平演变吗？中国从来没有这个想法。

Historically speaking, Japan and China are countries always ready for unexpected dangers, due to their geographical position and national power. Now the United States has also become such a country. The US' fear comes from its worry of losing its hegemonic position. The US' sense of superiority is based on its hegemonic position in the world. The United States believes it is exceptional and can intervene in other countries' internal affairs as it likes. All these special ideas are related to the American hegemonic mindset. If the US loses its hegemonic position in the world, its unique lifestyle will go with it. This is the underlying cause of its fear.

The US' historic fear of losing its hegemonic position began with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. At that time, the United States believed that the world had become unipolar and it must use this historical opportunity to maximize its power and expand its global reach in order to maintain its hegemony. That fear was actually a worry about the direction of the world future. Since 2008, this fear has become more real and concrete. In the US' eyes, China is no longer just a potential challenge, but a strategic competitor which must be dealt with in a serious manner.

The United States sees China as an immediate threat instead of a potential danger.First, there is domestic demand for this. The United States needs external enemies. The American military enterprises and US defense spending cannot survive without external enemies. The external factors are also important to balance and coordinate the two US parties' political competition. If Russia is regarded just as a military threat to the United States, then China is viewed as a strategic competitor in a more comprehensive sense. The so-called external threats can also act as scapegoats, which US can blame for its own mistakes. For example, economic recessions, unemployment, shrinking in manufacturing industries, and other domestic problems can all be China's fault, so as to quell the pressure from voters and the opposition party.

Then there is the need for its international strategy. The US' strength and influence are in relative decline. According to the logic that national strength determines a country's foreign strategy, the United States should decrease its defense budget. Yet the actual situation is that the US' external threats are on the rise, and the capabilities of its strategic competitors are also improving. As a response, the United States must also strengthen its external power. Then, the rise of China has become an easy and legitimate reason to convince the American people that the US has to strengthen its external power in order to maintain its position in the world. Interestingly, The US' worry reflects its contradictory psychology. On the one hand, the United States frequently highlighted the so called “China threat”; on the other hand, it repeatedly emphasized that the United States enjoys an absolute advantage in military power in the world. It is easy to see the contradiction: since the US claimed to enjoy absolute superiority in its military power, why should it worry about other countries? Look further, we can find that the United States has really many rivals; so many that it is difficult for it to focus. This is actually what really worries the United States. The United States can lock its focus on China, but it has found so many more such dangers that it is difficult for it to keep its focus solely on China. This is another underlying worry. This has also become a cause of its strategic uncertainty and strategic chaos. As a global hegemon, the United States has many problems due to maintaining its hegemonic position in the world, which are beyond its control. To find an easy way out, it just related all these problems to China. China does not seek hegemony; yet the United States is worried about losing its hegemony.

China has made great achievements in the past 40 years of reform and opening-up. China should be confident in its future development based on its past achievements. But this is not to say that China is ready to lead the world. China has neither the ambition nor the ability to lead the world. China knows itself well enough not to be placed at the center of the world. It is wrong to regard China's courage to take responsibility in the international community as evidence of China's intention to seek hegemony. The US assumption that China is already very powerful is premature and its anxiety is unnecessary. In fact, the real problem lies with the United States itself. Even if China becomes stronger, the United States has nothing to worry about as long as it maintains its strength.

Has the United States really lost confidence in its own development? If yes, then this shows that it has no confidence in its own development model. If China's development model is wrong and destined to fail, the United States has nothing to worry about at all. If the United States thinks that its model has some flaws, and other countries' models have merits, then the United States can learn from others and correct its mistakes. So, what is there to worry about? Of course, it is difficult for the United States to admit that it has shortcomings. However, the United States should have the courage to face up to its own shortcomings and correct them. All countries in the world would like to see the United States remain strong through correcting its mistakes. In fact, what the United States needs to do now is simple – just keep its confidence, nothing else. China can offer help to the US in order to help it maintain its confidence.

The United States must develop itself. The United States did not use the so-called state capitalism to rule the world; instead it used hegemony. It has special rights and always acts on its own. There is no possibility that China would do the same. It is unlikely that China would gain dominance over the United States through war or take its place in the world. Is it possible for China to peacefully transform the United States the way the US did to the Soviet Union? China has never had such an intention.