朝鲜最高领导人金正恩与韩国总统文在寅在平壤举行了两人之间五个月来的第三次会晤。

这次会晤的重点在于商谈缓解南北军事紧张的实际措施。双方签署了《板门店宣言军事领域履行协议》。会晤发表的共同宣言决定，为了实现半岛永久和平，停止包括非武装地带在内对峙地域的军事敌对关系，将尽快启动朝韩军事共同委员会，防止偶发性武力冲突。

在半岛无核化方面，双方强调要尽快取得实质性进展。朝方承诺在有关国家专家见证下永久废弃东仓里引擎试验场和导弹发射台，重申如果美国采取相应措施，朝方有诚意采取永久废弃宁边核设施等追加措施。

在经济合作领域，双方商定年底前举行东、西海岸线铁路及道路连接工程奠基仪式，在条件具备时优先恢复运营开城工业园区和金刚山旅游项目，同时就成立西海经济共同特区和东海观光共同特区问题进行协商。

作为重要姿态，金正恩临时调整安排，亲赴机场迎接文在寅，并首次在朝鲜劳动党中央委员会总部大楼举行北南首脑正式会谈。会晤前，朝韩在开城工业园区设立了联合联络处。

第三次“金文会”得以举行最重要的背景，是金正恩与美国总统特朗普在新加坡举行会晤后，朝美商谈落实《朝美联合声明》的工作进展不顺。特朗普政府不断施压，要求朝鲜在技术上并不可行的极短时间内弃毁核能力、交出弹道导弹项目成果，并按美方意图将核导研发团队人员送至境外安置，同时在朝方最需要的缔结和平条约、提供安全保障方面不愿做出实质承诺。尽管此一期间，金正恩与特朗普再次互致信函，但美方取消蓬佩奥国务卿再次访朝的计划，显示双方谈判陷入卡顿。

这种延宕令金正恩颇为焦躁，因其急于实践朝鲜劳动党七大和七届三中全会确定的路线调整，而朝美关系不获实质改善，两国谈判不取得突破，朝鲜迫切渴求的国际制裁就难以松动，经济改革显效所仰赖的外部资金就无法入朝。事实上，进入7月以后，特朗普政府一方面与朝鲜继续谈判，一方面坚持制裁朝鲜不放松，同时多次通过情报机构、舆论机器散播朝核设施仍在偷偷运转的信息，还联合日、韩、澳、英、法等国加强海上巡逻，以断绝朝鲜规避制裁走私燃料和特供商品的海上通道。

在此情况下，金正恩只能在自力更生保持经济增长的同时，寄希望于通过吸引韩国、中国、俄罗斯的支持，增强自身与美国打交道的地位，进而真正撬动美国。

连月来，金正恩密集视察国内各地生产和民生设施，指导具体工作，意在对内对外释放坚定不移将治国重心转移到发展经济上来的决心。金正恩也力邀中国最高领导人于9月9日朝鲜建国70周年之际访朝，还一度考虑赴俄罗斯符拉迪沃斯托克出席第四届东方经济论坛。中方最终由中共中央政治局常委、全国人大常委会委员长栗战书作为习近平的特别代表访朝，朝方仍利用接待之机尽显“传承并尽全力发展朝中友谊”的姿态。

朝美后续谈判的延宕同样令文在寅政府倍感焦虑。文在寅出于理想主义信念，上台后用最快速度祭出“新阳光政策”，在改善南北关系方面赌上全部政治生命，目前背负着强大的国内民意期待，承担着反对派渐增的质疑压力。文在寅与朝鲜大幅改善关系的做法走在了美国前头，与美方沟通不足，已招致特朗普政府不悦。在第三次“金文会”前，美方一度对包括韩方在内的同朝接触协调过于密切的各方进行敲打，宣称恢复美韩大规模军演是“分分钟的事”。内外双重压力之下，文在寅别无选择，急于推动半岛和平进程向前走，以印证自己战略决策的正确性。

金正恩、文在寅均高调宣扬第三次会晤取得成功，文在寅甚至单方面宣称韩朝已事实上结束军事敌对状态。两人并在会晤次日携手共登白头山（中国境内叫长白山），在天池之畔手牵手举过头顶合影，发出了朝韩“自主”推动半岛和平进程的强烈信号。金正恩还刻意把可以在解决核导问题过程中接受国际监督作为成果送给文在寅，以助其在下一步同特朗普进行协调时有所呈让。特朗普闻讯后发推表示赞赏，称这“激动人心”。

但是，朝韩真能主导半岛未来命运吗？这仍是一个疑问。

放在更大的框架下，第三次“金文会”所取得的成果只能被视作“小小的进展”，未来半岛形势的关键仍在于美朝协商谈判能否在弃核换安全、无核保安全方面取得突破性成果。在美方不愿在向朝鲜提供何种安全保障的问题上松口、朝方暂停核导计划的迄有步骤也不足以满足美方要求的情况下，其他乐见朝鲜改革的各方只能继续遵守联合国安理会制裁决议，无法寻获更多向朝鲜提供经济支援的“灰色空间”，试图将朝鲜融入其中的东北亚区域合作新局面也难以落到实处。

中国有意在半岛无核化进程中发挥更大协调作用，但特朗普政府对此深怀戒心。中美贸易摩擦的不断升级、战略关系的逐渐下滑也把中美在朝核问题上的协调置于进退维谷的选择困境。

美朝仍在接触，酝酿举行第二次“特金会”。目前的消息是，会晤有可能以金正恩首次出席联合国大会为契机举行，特朗普也可能直接向金正恩发出到访白宫的邀请。但无论如何，形式都不是最重要的。现在，球重新回到美方一边，半岛和平的“机会之窗”能否继续敞开，取决于美方的诚意。

The DPRK’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and ROK President Moon Jae-in met for the third time in Pyongyang.

The Summit focused on measures to ease military hostilities between the two Koreas. The two sides signed the Agreement on the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration in the Military Domain. Both sides decided to expand the cessation of military hostilities to transform the Peninsula into a land of permanent peace and to promptly activate the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee to prevent accidental military clashes.

The North promised to permanently dismantle the Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch platform under the observation of experts from relevant countries. The North expressed its willingness to continue to take additional measures, such as the permanent dismantlement of the nuclear facilities in Yeongbyeon, as the U.S. takes corresponding measures.

The two sides agreed to hold a ground-breaking ceremony within the year for the east-coast and west-coast rail and road connections. They also agreed, to first normalize the Gaeseong industrial complex and the Mt. Geumgang Tourism Project, and to discuss the issue of forming a west coast joint special economic zone and an east coast joint special tourism zone.

Kim changed his schedule that day to welcome Moon at the Pyongyang International Airport and hosted the summit in the headquarters of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea for the first time. Before the meeting, a joint liaison office had been set up at the Kaesong (Gaeseong) Industrial Zone.

Then there was the Singapore Summit between Kim Jong-un and the U.S. President Donald Trump. The Trump-Kim Joint Statement was not smoothly implemented as the Trump Administration pressed the North to, in an impractically short time, abandon its nuclear capabilities and hand over ballistic missile programs as the U.S. wishes. Besides, the U.S. has been unwilling to make concrete commitments to conclude a peace treaty and provide a security guarantee, which the North demands.

Trump’s delay made Kim restless as he was eager to practice the policy adjustments decided at the 7th Party Congress and the Third Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers' Party. DPRK-US relations yielded no practical progress with no breakthrough made in negotiations. Consequently, the North’s longing for softer sanctions could not be fulfilled and there was no way for foreign capitals to flow in to improve its economy. In fact, the Trump Administration has been continuing its negotiations with the North while insisting on sanctions against it since July. Besides, the U.S. has been spreading through the voice of intelligent agents and mass media that the North is still operating its nuclear equipment in secret. It also increased maritime patrol forces with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the UK, and France in the hopes of cutting off the DPRK’s sea routes to prevent its attempts to dodge sanctions by smuggling special supplies and fuels.

Under these circumstances, North Korea can only rely on South Korea, China, and Russia for help.

For months, Kim has had his schedule booked up inspecting production and public facilities and giving instructions for work across the country, signaling his firm determination to shift the focus of governance to economic development. Kim once considered visiting Russia's Vladivostok for the 4th Eastern Economic Forum. He also extended a sincere invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the 70th anniversary of the founding of the DPRK on September 9th. In the end, China designated Li Zhanshu, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress as the special representative of President Xi to visit North Korea. Despite this, the North still made good use of the opportunity to carry on and develop friendship with China.

The delay in the follow-up discussions after the Singapore Summit also upset Moon’s government. In the spirit of idealism, Moon has gambled all this political life on improving the North-South relations, with strong expectations from his people and pressure and increasing doubts from the opposition. Moon began the revival of the Sunshine Policy to greatly improve its relations with the North, however, moving faster than the U.S. with inadequate communications. This elicited discontent from the Trump Administration who had warned it before the third Kim-Moon meeting. Under pressure at home and abroad, Moon had no way out but to push forward for peace in the Peninsula to vindicate his strategies and decisions.

Kim and Moon climbed Mount Paekdu together on the second day of the Summit and raised each other’s hands above their heads for photographs on the shore of the Heaven Lake. Intending to give Moon something to hand over to Trump, Kim agreed to accept international supervision in dealing with nuclear missiles. Having heard of the news, Trump tweeted “Very exciting” as appreciation.

However, it remains a question whether the two Koreas have the power to determine the destiny of the Peninsula.

In the larger picture, the results of the third Kim-Moon summit can only be regarded as a “minor step”. The key to the future of the Peninsula still lies in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. As the U.S. doesn’t intend to guarantee North Korea’s security and the North is not in a position to satisfy the U.S.’ requirements for nuclear missile suspension, other parties can only abide by the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council’s resolutions. There is almost no way to provide economic support for the North through “grey areas” and it is difficult to incorporate the North into the rest of Northeast Asia.

China is inclined to play a greater role coordinating the Peninsula’s denuclearization. However, the Trump Administration has been keeping a wary eye. With escalating trade conflicts and declining strategic relations between China and the U.S., China is faced with a dilemma about whether to help the U.S. or not.

The US and the DPRK are still keeping in touch on the second Trump-Kim meeting. The meeting may take place when Kim Jong-un attends the UN General Assembly for the first time. Trump could also send a direct invitation to Kim to visit the White House. No matter how it will take place, the ball is back in the U.S.’ court for now. The Peninsula’s peace prospects depends on the sincerity of the U.S.