2018年以来，中美贸易摩擦不断升级。特朗普当选美国总统后，试图遏止经济全球化的大趋势，改变贸易合作，扭转贸易逆差。特朗普声称美国在“全球化”中“输了”，来自中国的进口抢走了美国人的工作机会。而2018年美国政坛将迎来中期选举，特朗普出于政治目的，更是不断对中国挑起贸易纠纷。

首先，我们认为，中美经贸摩擦的根源在于中美两国各自国内的政治经济格局都发生了深刻变化。美国国内“精英的美国”与“传统的美国”激烈博弈，双方唯一一致的靶子就是中国，而中国在十八大以来，自身发展道路和体制已然清晰，迈入了社会主义现代化发展的新时代。中美两国的这种改变让特朗普总统上台以来的中美关系发生了本质性的变化，这是我们必须面对的客观事实。

第二，面对貌似严峻的形势，必须明晰底线。我们认为，中美关系并不会走向全面对抗，而中美贸易摩擦的成本我们完全可以承担。一是中美利益深度交融，美国跨国公司在中国拥有广泛的、关乎公司发展根基的重要利益，美国享受美元霸权体系红利亦需要中国的支持和参与； 二是目前以特朗普总统为代表的、在美国占上风“传统的美国”与“新时代的中国”的诉求在战略上是互补的，特朗普总统代表的美国所希望“减仓”的，如扩展全球贸易、改善气候变化、改革全球治理等，是当前中国所希望“加仓”的。三是，我们认为中方能够做到以史为鉴，精准管控分歧，不给极端派、挑衅者任何可乘之机，不会擦枪走火。

第三，面对中美经贸摩擦所带来的影响与冲击，必须保持战略定力。短期内，中方需要把握主动权，以战促合，可以在中美贸易顺差问题上尽量甚至超预期地满足特朗普的要求，换取特朗普在中国核心利益上的让步，但是对于“精英的美国”所提出的阻碍中国经济升级的无理要求，则必须予以坚定的拒绝。长期来看，中方要做好持久准备，防止舆论放大不理性的认知，同时苦练内功，以最大的决心精准落实各项改革方针大略。

最后，我们认为，如果应对得当，中美经贸摩擦将会“磨和”出中美合作的新格局。这个中美合作的新格局有三个重要标志，即美方的“三个接受”。第一，必须接受中国与美国发展道路不同、中国不可能走西方式政治经济发展道路的事实，中美双方“和而不同”；第二，必须要接受人口第一大国和即将成为的经济第一大国在周边事务所拥有的主导力；第三，必须接受中国在改善全球治理中发挥与美国及西方“和而不同”、积极有为的、共利多赢的新型领导力。中美合作关系的新格局必须也一定能够形成，这是中华民族伟大复兴的破茧之工。

（摘自清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心2018年7月8日的中美经贸关系战略报告）

China-US trade frictions have continuously escalated since the beginning of 2018. After assuming the US presidency, Donald Trump has attempted to curb the general trend of economic globalization, change trade cooperation, and reverse trade deficits. He claims the US has “lost” in “globalization”, and that imports from China have robbed Americans of their jobs. As mid-term elections unfold in the US, he has constantly intensified the trade spat with China out of political considerations. Now what can we expect from China-US relations? Here are brief findings from our research.

First, we believe China-US economic friction is rooted in the fact that profound changes have taken place in the domestic politics and economics in both countries. In the US, while the “elite America” and “traditional America” engage in fierce wrangling and cannot reach any compromise on almost all issues, China is their sole common target. China, on the other hand, has demonstrated a clear development path and institutional arrangements since the Communist Party of China's 18th National Congress, striding into a new era of socialist modernization. Such changes have led to substantive changes in bilateral ties after Trump assumed office, which is an objective reality we cannot afford to ignore.

Second, both sides need to understand and avoid the worst case scenario. We believe China-US relations will not head towards all-out confrontation, while China can manage the damage from trade friction with the US. One reason is that Chinese and US interests are deeply entwined. For instance, US transnational corporations have important interests in China that are critical to the foundation of their development and China's support and participation are indispensable for the US to enjoy the dividends of the US dollar hegemony. The second reason is the appeal of the Trump-led “traditional America”, which is having the upper hand at home, and that of the “new-era China” are strategically mutually complementary. That is, the Trump-represented America wants to withdraw from things such as expanding global trade, harnessing climate change, and reforming global governance, while China seeks to participate more actively. The third reason is we believe the Chinese top leadership has solid control over the country, and are capable of drawing lessons from history, precisely managing and controlling any potential provocations from extremists and opportunists.

Third, strategic composure must be maintained in the face of the influences and shocks from China-US economic friction. In the short term, the Chinese side needs to take the initiative and promote cooperation through a limited trade war. It can more than satisfy President Trump's demands on the matter of US trade deficits in exchange for the latter's concessions on core Chinese interests. But it must resolutely refuse the unreasonable requests the “elite America” has made in order to hinder China's economic upgrade. In the long term, the Chinese side should prepare for the long haul, prevent public opinion from amplifying irrational ideas, and at the same time work hard to implement reforms with maximum resolve.

Last, we believe, handled properly, China-US economic friction may give birth to a new pattern of bilateral cooperation. Such a pattern will have three main hallmarks, i.e. “three acceptances” on the part of the US. 1) The US must accept the fact that China and the US have different development paths, and it is impossible for China to follow a Western path of political and economic development. China and the US should seek peaceful co-existence despite their differences. 2) The US must accept the fact that China will play a primary role in its surroundings regions, since China is the most populous country and will soon be the largest economy. 3) The US must accept a new type of leadership from China in improving global governance. This leadership is proactive, aimed at win-win scenarios as well as peaceful co-existence with the US and West despite differences. On the Chinese side, the country needs to be more transparent in the role of the government in promoting economic development and technologic progress and more open to foreign investment and trade. China also needs to articulate even more clearly its core interests and strategic intention in a language accessible to the Western world.We have confidence that the new pattern of China-US relationship will eventually shape up. It is an essential move for the China dream.

(Excerpted from the “Strategic Report on China-US Economic and Trade Relations”, Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE), Tsinghua University).