我们今天所面临世界呈现为经济全球化、政治多极化、社会信息化、威胁多元化、文化多样化。这“五化”相互激荡、互为因果、相互连锁反应并推波助澜。在这样的世界新秩序中，中美的国际地位以前是“一超”与“多强”（之一）的关系，现在变成“老大”与“老二”的关系。以前美国是世界警察，现在重心要回归亚太。以前中国专注经济发展，现在则要构建大国外交，战略扩展、主动经营的意识增强。中美双方在亚太地区全方位的迎头相向，是过去百年以来的新变局，加上国内民意对政策的影响，第三方因素对中美关系的绑架，以及网络、太空、极地、气候等新议题的涌现，这些都决定了中美关系必须有新的框架和思维去指导，需要有新政策、新办法，否则不经意之间容易失控。特朗普上台，正好处在中美关系发生重大变化的关头。

应当看到，美国对华既有战略有其内在规律和特点，不致因特朗普当选总统被全面推翻。美中关系和其他关系非常不同，是世界上最复杂的双边关系，二者既有包括地缘政治、意识形态、文明冲突等在内的一系列矛盾，也有经贸、区域安全、全球治理等一系列深刻合作，由此形成了深度相互依赖，所以是十分复杂的双边关系，要想全面颠覆不大可能。另外，经过这些年的交往，美国对中国的认识越来越成熟，自中美关系正常化以来，也形成了一些基本规律。不过，外界对特朗普比较担心，这也不是空穴来风。

第一，中美关系发展到一个新阶段。过去一些指导中美关系的基本框架似乎现在指引不了了。诸如三个《联合公报》和三个《联合声明》等六个政治文件，共同规范了中美关系成功运行30、40年，但现在单靠这些已难以维系。原因就是两国实力对比的变化、战略态势的变化、战略环境的变化、战略基础的变化等四大变化同时发生。因此，需要指导中美关系的既有框架与时俱进，顺势调整，否则中美关系总会让人感到不适。中方因此提出构建中美“新型大国关系”，但美方却没有深入思考和应对，自身又提不出符合时代发展的新框架。特朗普上台后，很多人关注下届美国政府会不会有什么新思维、新框架，尤其是会不会出现某种颠覆性的战略转向。这是大家关注的焦点。

第二，特朗普和他的团队人们多不熟悉。尽管特朗普说他到过中国多次也了解中国和中国人，但做生意和治国理政毕竟大不同，他的团队尤其是涉华团队是什么样的，现在还不得而知，需要观察。基辛格评价特朗普说，特朗普是他这辈子看到过的最独特的美国领导人。他建议特朗普任命一个不仅懂中国时政而且还要懂中国历史文化的人来处理中国事务。这是明智的建议，否则，由于彼此都不熟悉，而且不能从战略高度和长远角度把握中美关系，很容易因磨合不好出问题。

第三，特朗普在竞选期间确实发表了一些不利于中国的言论。他会发明什么概念或以什么样的政策来应对中国，这是我们思考中美关系发展走向的一个起点。历史地看，美国对华战略的每一步演进，基本上首先基于中国自身实力的变化，其次是基于中国战略包括中国意图、中国政治方向等的变化，再次则是基于美国自身国力与国际环境的变化。

从特朗普上台的背景来说，一方面，中美实力对比拉近的趋势还在发展，尤其是中国国际影响力在明显提升。另一方面，美国战略界也认定中国的政治方向、战略意图越来越把不准、控不住。在这种背景下，美国有一种焦虑感和紧迫感，对华用强的声音明显抬高。问题是美国自身现在众多问题待解，国际格局演变也对美国地位不利，所以特朗普必须考虑这个基本事实，以更加务实、理性、包容甚至创造性的思维去制定未来的对华战略。从中国实力和意图角度来看，美国对中国强硬的一面在明显抬头，但是从美国自身能力和国际格局变化来看，它又无法全方位遏制中国。今后，必须也只能继续在二者之间寻找某种平衡。

中国对美外交这些年也越来越成熟，开始主动和美国打交道而不是等待，所以中国领导人第一时间向特朗普发去贺电，又进行了通话。习近平主席和特朗普就中美关系未来发展进行了初步沟通，达成了包括相互尊重在内的重要共识，这就为下阶段两国关系发展指明了方向。在利马APEC会议期间，习主席与奥巴马总统还对中美关系过去的发展进行了全面总结。中美整体关系在美国政治过渡阶段是有条不紊的。

The world today features a globalized economy, multi-polar politics, extensive application of IT in societies, diversified threats and pluralistic cultures. These five features interact and create many reverberations. In this new world order, the relationship between the US and China is evolving from one between the sole superpower and one of several major powers to one between the 'eldest' and 'second brother'. The US used to be a world policeman and now its center of gravity is moving back to the Asia Pacific. China used to focus on economic development and now is developing major-power diplomacy with a keener awareness for strategic extension and proactive management. The two countries now directly face each other in the Asia Pacific in almost all areas — a new situation not seen in the past hundred years. Additionally, new issues such as cyber, outer space, polar region development and climate have been emerging. All these require new frameworks and new thinking to guide China-US relations, otherwise the two countries may well lose control inadvertently. Donald Trump's taking office will happen at this critical moment of major changes in China-US relations.

Admittedly, America's existing China strategy has its inherent structure, laws and characteristics and will not be fundamentally overthrown with Trump's election as the next US president. Unlike many other sets of relationships, China-US relations is the most complex bilateral tie in today's world. Between the two countries, there are both a host of conflicts in geopolitics, ideology and civilization and as well as extensive and profound cooperation in economy, trade, regional security and global governance, on the basis of which a deep mutual dependence has developed. Turning that completely upside-down is quite unlikely. On the other hand, with years of exchanges, the American view about China has become more and more mature. Such basic patterns have emerged in bilateral relations since their normalization. Nonetheless, the outside world is fairly worried about Trump. The worry is not completely unfounded.

First, the China-US relationship is now in a new stage of development. Those basic frameworks that guided this relationship have become less effective. The six political documents (three Joint Communiqués and three Joint Statements) that powered successful operation of China-US relations for about four decades are no longer sufficient. This is because major changes have taken place in the two countries' balance of power, strategic posture, strategic environment and strategic basis. It is therefore necessary to follow the trend and readjust the existing frameworks of China-US relations. China has proposed to develop a new model of major-country relations, to which the US has not given in-depth thinking or response. Meanwhile the US has not been able to propose a framework that is abreast of the times. When Trump is in office, many will observe whether his administration will have any new thinking or new framework and whether there will be some disruptive strategic shifts. That will be the focus of attention.

Second, Trump and his team are not very familiar to many people. Although he has claimed that he's been to China many times and that he understood China and Chinese, governing a country is rather different from doing business. What his team (especially his China team) will be like is still unknown and yet to be observed. Kissinger described Trump as the most unique American leader in his lifetime; he advised that the next U.S. Ambassador to China should be someone who not only understands current Chinese politics but also its history and culture to handle affairs related to China, which is indeed a very wise piece of advice to Trump that could forestall problems in the future.

Third, Trump expressed views rather unfavorable towards China during his campaign.What concept or policy will Trump invent for China? This is the starting point of our thinking on the future development of China-US relations. Historically, almost every step of evolution in America's China strategy has been first of all the result of China's new strength, second based on changes in China's strategy including its intentions and political directions, and third attributable to changing national strength of the US and a changing international environment.

Against the background of Trump's election, on the one hand, the gap between Chinese and American strengths continues narrowing, with China gaining markedly higher international influence. On the other hand, the American strategic community feels increasingly unsure about China's political direction and strategic intentions. As such, the US has developed a sense of anxiety and urgency, with stronger voices emerging for showing (and using) strength with regard to China. The problem is, the US is confronted with many problems at home and the evolving international structure is not supportive of American status. Trump has to take this basic fact into account and draft his China strategy with more pragmatic, rational, inclusive and even creative thinking. Given China's strength, it's rather impossible for the US to comprehensively “contain China”. In the future, it will have to continue finding a certain strategic balance.

Chinese diplomacy towards the US has also become more and more mature in recent years. Beijing has gradually learned to engage the US rather than waiting for the latter to act. Chinese leaders lost no time to congratulate and talk with Trump. Xi Jinping and Trump had an initial conversation and agreed to respect each other, identifying the direction for bilateral relations in the next stage. During the APEC meetings in Lima, Presidents Xi and Obama comprehensively summed up the development of the China-US relationship, which has on the whole been in good order during the political transition in the US.