展望新的一年，世界充满变数和挑战。

首先，还是“笨蛋！问题是经济”这个老问题。2016年世界经济将继续缓慢增长，金融风险不断聚积。世界经济仍处在“L”型的底部，根据共识预测（Consensus Forecasts）,2016年全球经济增长速度为2.8%，略高于2015年的2.6%。除了美国和英国，发达国家2016年会是一片凄凉，GDP增速全都低于2%。

今年全球经济景观中有几个关键点要留意：

1、随着美联储加息和美元走强，一些债务缠身的发展中国家正经受足可以毁掉其经济的资本外逃、信贷紧缩和财政紧缩。欧元区和一些资源出口国的债务危机似乎也迫在眉睫。系统性金融风险和传染依然存在。2009年以来，各大央行创造了高达12万亿美元的廉价美元流动性，其结果是全球债务自2007年以来额外增加了57万亿美元。国际清算银行称这一债务水平“令人恐惧”。

2、大宗商品特别是石油的价格持续下跌，由于增长乏力全球需求依然低迷。这将给巴西、俄罗斯、南非、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚和加拿大等资源出口国带来不利影响。巴西和俄罗斯2015年已经出现3.5%到3.8%的负增长，这种趋势估计仍将继续。

3、由于经济变数增加，全球投资与贸易将再度萎缩，从而进一步打击已经萎靡不振的世界市场。世界贸易过去几年的年平均增幅为3%，而2008年金融危机之前为7%。未来的变数包括潜在的美联储加息、欧元区需求疲软和高失业率，以及可能从债务缠身国家扩散到全球的系统性金融风险。

第二，中东等地的地缘政治动荡依然存在，牵扯进来的大国竞争不断加剧，这不仅使地区冲击恶化，也沉重打击了全球经济增长。随着美国大选来临，选举年热将使地区冲突变得更复杂、更加难以解决。

我们来看看全球的问题地区：

乌克兰危机持续恶化，军事冲突没有停止的迹象，导致俄罗斯与美国陷入战略僵局，而这将影响未来欧洲的安全，以及俄罗斯同欧盟和美国的关系。乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国与欧盟四方之间的冲突将在未来一段时间内继续上演。

中东复杂而危险的局势仍然看不到“隧道尽头的光”。近期沙特与伊朗外交关系破裂，巴林和苏丹跟随沙特同伊朗断交，该地区及其他地方逊尼派与什叶派穆斯林的冲突与“代理人战争”会愈演愈烈。近年美国的战略收缩包括撤出中东专注于亚太，更多致力于实现“亚洲的再平衡”。

不过，被美国政府作为重大外交政策成就而大力吹捧的伊朗核协议，似乎成为沙特和伊朗所代表的逊尼派与什叶派穆斯林之间关系恶化的催化剂。在以色列、沙特等美国中东盟友看来，美国对它们的承诺变得不太可靠。在这种情况下，直接军事对抗看来无法排除。

中东地区冲突的另一个方面是“伊斯兰国”（IS）的扩张及其在全球的恐怖活动。尽管IS最近在伊拉克损失了小部分领地，但它肯定不会撤退，即使许多专家预测今年IS会灭亡，但没有人说出怎样才能打败它。

随着美国采取更积极的行动，在全球践行它所谓的神圣不可侵犯的航行自由规则，南海与西太平洋的紧张局势将加剧，接下来的一年里有可能出现军事冲突。最近美国对中国主权岛屿领空的“误入”，就是典型的美国冒险主义。在美国的支持下，日本舰船与战机在南海巡逻正在酝酿当中。而菲律宾似乎不管总统选举结果如何，都决心将赌注押在即将到来的国际海洋法法庭裁决上。

地缘政治动荡正变得日益严峻而复杂，这势必对全球经济环境产生负面影响。

第三，随着大国的参与力度加大，全球治理和规则制定今年进入实质性阶段，进而继续塑造21世纪世界政治经济秩序。

2015年见证了全球治理的重大演进，通过采取积极行动推动结构性改革，作为整体的发展中国家特别是中国取得了进展。

仅举几个例子。

中国的联合国会费分摊份额上升到近8%，维和行动出资超过10%，分别居第三和第二位。

亚投行于2015年底全面运营。这个全球金融体系的新成员既代表中国对全球治理的贡献，也说明中国决心为需要基建融资的发展中国家提供一个替代选择。许多发达国家和发展中国家对亚投行的超额认购说明，现有全球金融治理结构绝对已经是超负荷，需要补充和加强。它同时告诉我们，全球治理亟需像中国提出的“一带一路倡议”这样的新思想。

2015年末，中国人民币被正式纳入IMF的SDR货币篮子，并将于2016年10月1日生效。这再次表明全球货币体系正在向着更加健全高效的方向改革。IMF和世界银行有关增加发展中国家投票权份额的决定长期未获执行，去年年末也终于得到解决，这给世界带来了希望，说明全球治理改革实际上是所有国家的共同期盼。

上述所有进展象征性地显示出“西方治理”正在向“东西方共同治理”转变。由于中国将于9月份主办杭州G20峰会，全球治理的这个大趋势无疑将在2016年继续延续。中国有望就世界经济应如何重组提供新思路，以便为经济增长带来新的动力。

第四，今年大国合作与摩擦都会增加，这种有趣的互动发展反映着大国关系的重塑。为了让世界对所有人来说都变得更加美好，大国至少应在三个领域内密切合作。

毋庸置疑，G20必须更好地进行宏观经济协调。全球经济在过时的增长模式下失去动力，一直在苦苦寻找经济发展的新路径。在这个过渡时期，几乎所有国家都在进行结构调整。然而没有密切合作与政策协调，世界经济仍会步履蹒跚并再次跌倒。G20拥有全球80%以上的GDP，已经取代G7成为全球经济合作的主要平台，其成员作为全球经济的主要利益攸关方有负责让经济再度增长。避免一国经济政策产生负面溢出效应的必要性显而易见，美联储加息时机就是一个例子。

另一个要务是大国通过密切合作与协商，减少各个热点地区的紧张，打击恐怖主义，尤其是在中东地区。必须加强联合国的作用，对联合国实现和平与维护和平的努力要给予更大的支持。

中国率先提出在合作与协商基础上建设“新型大国关系”。在这方面，美中作为安理会常任理事国和G20核心成员，应在沿着上述路线塑造国家关系方面发挥领导作用。

罗列需要解决的问题和困难是容易的，汇聚我们的智慧与决心，为这些问题提供可行的解决方案则完全是另一回事，而这正是新年伊始应该做的事情。

As we look ahead into the year ahead, the world seems full of uncertainties and challenges.

Firstly, “it's the economy, stupid” as usual. The year 2016 will witness continued global slow growth and accumulation of financial risks. The world economy is still on the bottom of an L-shaped groove. According to Consensus Forecasts, global growth is expected to be 2.8%, slightly up from 2.6% in 2015. Aside from the US and UK, advanced nations face a bleak picture with GDP growth all below 2% in 2016.

There are a few key things to watch closely in global economic landscape this year:

1. With the Fed's rate increases and a strong dollar, some debt-ridden developing nations are experiencing capital flight, credit crunches and fiscal tightening that can break their economies. A debt crisis also seems imminent in Euro-zone and some resource-exporting countries. Systemic financial risks and contagion still exist. Since 2009, major central banks have created cheap dollar liquidity in the amount of $12 trillion, and as a result global debt has risen an additional $57 trillion since 2007. The Bank of International Settlement calls this level of debt “frightening”.

2. Prices of bulk commodities will keep falling, especially that of petroleum, as global demands remain depressed with weak growth. This will adversely impact resource-exporting countries like Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, Australia and Canada. Brazil and Russia were already in negative growth of -3.5% and -3.8% in 2015, and the trend is expected to continue.

3. Global investment and trade will shrink again as economic uncertainty mounts, which will further dampen an already depressed world market. World trade is growing at an average of 3% in the last few years as compared with 7% before the 2008 financial crisis. The uncertainty that lies in wait includes any potential Fed rate increase, the Euro-zone's weak demand and high unemployment, and possible systemic financial risks spreading from debt-ridden countries to the whole world.

Secondly, geopolitical turmoil persists in regions like the Middle East involving ever-deepening rivalry among big powers, which will not only worsen regional conflicts but also deal heavy blows to global economic growth. With the US presidential election in sight, election-year fever will make any regional conflict much more complex and difficult to resolve.

Let us take a panoramic view of trouble spots worldwide:

1. The Ukraine crisis continues to fester with no sign of an end to the military conflict, producing a strategic stalemate between Russia and the US that affects the future security of Europe as well as Russia's relationships with the European Union and the US. The four-prong conflict among Ukraine, Russia, the US and EU will be with us for some time to come.

2. There is no “light at the end of the tunnel” for the complex and dangerous situation in the Middle East. With the recent severance of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Bahrain and Sudan following the Saudi lead, the conflict and “proxy wars” between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the region and beyond will get even worse. The recent years' US strategic retrenchment cycle involves a retreat from the Middle East and a refocus on Asia with more determined efforts to implement “rebalance in Asia”.

But the Iranian Nuclear Agreement touted by the US Administration as a major foreign policy score seems to be a catalyst for worsening relations between Sunnis and Shiite as represented respectively by Saudi Arabia and Iran. US allies in the region including Israel and Saudi Arabia are less sure of America's commitment to them. It seems that direct military confrontation can't be ruled out in this situation.

Another aspect of the regional conflict is the spread of IS and its terror campaign all over the world. Though IS suffered a few losses of land in Iraq recently, it is certainly not in retreat and there is no telling how it can be defeated even if many experts are predicting its demise this year.

3. The South China Sea and the Western Pacific will witness rising tension and possible military skirmishes in the year ahead as the US moves more aggressively to enforce its sacrosanct rule of the freedom of navigation worldwide, as defined by itself. Recent “mistaken entry” into airspace over the island under Chinese sovereignty is a typical example of American adventurism. With American support, Japanese warships and fighter planes patrolling in the South China Sea is in the pipeline, and the Philippines seems determined to place its bet on the upcoming ruling of the Maritime International Court, no matter what the outcome is for its presidential election.

Geopolitical turmoil and upheavals are getting more acute and complex day by day and they are bound to affect global economic environment negatively.

Thirdly, global governance and rule-making enters a substantive period this year, with greater involvement by big powers, which will continue to shape the world political and economic order in the 21st century.

The year 2015 saw much evolution in global governance, with developing countries as a whole and China in particular gaining ground by proactive actions in improving its architectural reform.

Just take a few examples.

China moves up in the scale of assessments for the United Nations regular contributions at close to 8% and those for peace-keeping operations at over 10%, taking the 3rd and 2nd positions respectively.

The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was fully operational by the end of 2015. This new addition to the global financial system represents both China's contribution to global governance and her determination to provide an alternative to the developing nations that need financing for infrastructure-building. The over-subscription to AIIB by so many economies, both advanced and developing, indicates that the existing global financial governance structure is definitely over-burdened and needs supplements and reinforcement. It also tells us that global governance is in critical need of new ideas like “the Belt and Road Initiative” as proposed by China.

China's RMB was officially listed as part of the SDR basket of currencies by the IMF late 2015, effective October 1, 2016. This demonstrates once again that the global monetary system is undergoing reforms to make it more robust and effective. The long-overdue implementation of decisions by the IMF and the World Bank to increase the shares of voting power for developing nations was finally settled late last year, giving the world much hope that global governance reform is indeed the common aspiration of all nations.

All above advances reveal movement from “governance by the West” to “co-governance by both East and West”, figuratively speaking. This mega-trend in global governance will no doubt continue in 2016 as China will chair the G20 Summit in September in Hangzhou. China is expected to propose new ideas on how the world economy should be restructured to bring about new momentum for growth.

Fourthly, big power cooperation and friction will both increase in the year, an interesting development of interaction reflecting the reshaping of big-power relations. There are at least three areas where big powers should cooperate closely in order to make the world a better place for all.

Needless to say, the G20 must do a better job of macro-economic coordination. The global economy has lost steam with the outdated mode of growth and has been desperately seeking new paths for economic development. In this transition, almost all countries are engaged in structural adjustments. Without close cooperation and policy coordination, the global economy will teeter and fall down again. The G20, with over 80% of world GDP under its belt, has replaced the G7 as the primary platform for global economic coordination and its members are duty-bound as major stakeholders in the global economy to make it work again. The need to avoid negative spillovers of national economic policies is obvious. The timing of the Fed's rate increases is a case in point.

The next critical thing is the close cooperation and consultation by big powers to reduce tensions in various hot spots and to fight terrorism, most notably in the Middle East. The role of the UN needs to be enhanced and greater support be given to its efforts both in making peace and keeping peace.

China has taken the lead in proposing building “new type of big-power relations” based on cooperation and consultation. In this connection, both the US and China, being permanent members of the Security Council and core members of the G20, should play a leadership role in shaping their relationship along these lines.

It is easy to list problems and difficult issues that need to be solved. It is quite another to put all of our wits and determination together in offering feasible solutions to these problems. This is exactly what should be done at the beginning of the new year！