当前，美国经济饱受高通胀之痛。为控制高通胀，美联储开启了激进加息模式，宣布将联邦基金利率的目标区间大幅上调75个基点，并创下美联储1994年以来最大加息纪录。鉴于美国通胀的顽固性和结构性，要在激进加息抗通胀和不对经济踩刹车之间搞平衡几乎是不可能的，世界也要为新一轮冲击做好充分准备。

美国通胀已经持续一年之久，连续12个月超过5%，连续3个月超过8%，而5月份更是飙升至8.6%，创下40多年来新高。事实上，美国此轮通胀具有广泛的基础，其中住房、汽油和食品的贡献最大。能源价格指数在5月同比上涨34.6%，为2005年9月以来的新高；食品价格更是同比增长10.1%，为1981年3月以来新高。高通胀侵蚀了消费者购买力与经济增长，因此美联储将抗通胀作为头号任务。

然而，加息是一把“双刃剑”。由于美国自身经济增长正在失去动能，加息和货币抽水将对经济产生重大影响。利率上行，层层传导，包括抵押债务和商业贷款在内的借贷成本将上升，这会打击房地产，削减消费者支出，让企业扩张降温，削弱劳动力市场和经济增长前景。近一时期以来，美国经济信心指数和经济痛苦指数都已显露出经济衰退的苗头。

首先，美国消费者信心指数创下40多年来新低。在持续高企的通胀面前，美国消费者信心指数遭遇重创。6月份密歇根大学美国消费者信心指数降至50.2，不仅比5月下跌了8.2个百分点，甚至低于2020年（新冠疫情暴发时期）和2008年（雷曼危机时期）水平，创下44年来的最低。美国是消费驱动型经济，消费是拉动经济增长的主要引擎，因此这也是对美国经济增长悲观预期的信号。

其次，美国经济痛苦指数创二战以来新高。一般而言，把通胀率和失业率结合起来看，就组成了经济学家称为的“经济痛苦指数”，这是由耶鲁大学经济学教授阿瑟·奥肯在上世纪70年代创建的，是用来衡量普通人经济福祉的经济指标。这一指标越高，表明经济痛苦程度越高。5月份美国失业率为3.6%，虽然失业率尚处于历史低位，但高通胀导致对未来美国经济衰退的担忧会影响到美国就业市场，对企业招聘造成负面影响。从美国6月份就业市场来看，美国持续申请失业救济趋势较低，但初次申请失业救济的趋势却出现了明显上升，而通胀对就业市场的压力会进一步显现。当前美国经济痛苦指数已经飙升至12.2，以历史标准衡量，比二战后的几次衰退都要高。

第三，前期拉动美国增长的房地产市场也出现明显退潮。6月美国住宅建筑商信心指数下降2个点至67，创下2020年6月以来的最低水平，这也是该指数连续第六个月下降。随着国债收益率持续上升，美国30年期抵押贷款利率已经上升了2个百分点，再次回到10多年前的水平。作为对利率最为敏感的部门，房贷利率飙升将抑制购买需求，使房价回落，进而冲击房地产市场。

而纵观美国抗通胀的历史，经济衰退也是必然要付出的代价。1979-1982年期间，时任美联储主席的沃尔克以“壮士割腕”的态度抵抗通胀，开启了“暴力加息”进程。在这一过程中，公众逐渐认识到美联储控通胀的决心，虽然最终扭转了通胀预期，并使通胀率逐步回落至5%附近，但沃尔克抵抗通胀之战的代价最终是美国陷入自1930年代“大萧条”以来最严重的经济衰退，以及失业率飙升至10%。

沃尔克时期，美国货币紧缩政策使联邦基金利率激增至20%的峰值。而目前美国联邦基金利率的目标范围是0.75%-1%，这意味着还有很长的加息和紧缩路程要走。美国此轮通胀是顽固的、结构性的，要想将核心通胀降至2%，而又不让经济陷入衰退，几乎是不可能的事情，美国经济将不可避免地再一次经历“沃尔克式紧缩”。

美国是全球最大经济体，美元是全球主要结算货币，美联储进入加息周期对世界经济的冲击是显而易见的，世界经济将面临多重风险。当前世界多个经济体追随美国启动加息进程，根据美国银行全球研究报告（BofA Global Research）显示，全球部分央行今年年内加息次数已累计达124次，超过了2021年全年数量。而在2020年，全球央行累计加息次数仅为6次。持续累加的货币紧缩将导致全球金融环境大幅收紧。高通胀加上货币紧缩导致的经济下行压力，以及全球化倒退、产业链供应链重构所导致的重置成本上升，有可能让全球陷入“滞涨”的风险。

The United States economy is suffering from high inflation. To control it, the Federal Reserve moved aggressively to raise interest rates, with the target range for federal funds up by a hefty 75 basis points, the sharpest hike since 1994. Given that inflation in the American economy is persistent and structural, it is almost impossible to counter inflationary pressure with aggressive interest rate hikes and also avoid slamming the brakes on the economy. The world needs to prepare for new shocks.

U.S. inflation has been running at more than 5 percent for 12 months and 8 percent for three consecutive months. It surged to 8.6 percent in May, its highest in more than 40 years. In fact, the ongoing inflation is broad-based, with housing, gasoline and food contributing the most. Energy prices rose 34.6 percent in May from a year earlier, the highest since September 2005, and food prices rose 10.1 percent year-on-year, the highest since March 1981. High inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and economic growth, and the Fed has made fighting inflation its top priority.

But raising interest rates is a double-edged sword. With economic momentum running out of steam, higher interest rates and monetary tightening will have a big impact. As interest rates rise and the impact is felt at different layers of finance, the cost of borrowing — including mortgage debt and commercial loans — will rise, which will hit the real estate sector, cut consumer spending and chill business expansion, thus weakening the labor market and growth prospects. Recently, the U.S. economic sentiment indicator and misery index have both shown signs of recession.

First, consumer confidence is at its lowest level in more than four decades, as reflected in the plummeting consumer confidence index, in the face of persistent inflation. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 50.2 in June, down 8.2 percent from May. It was the lowest in 44 years, even below 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and 2008 during the Lehman Brothers crisis. Given that American economic growth is mainly consumption-driven, low consumer confidence signals pessimism about growth.

Second, the misery index is at its highest since World War II. The index is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It was created in the 1970s by Arthur Okun, a professor of economics at Yale University, as a measure of the economic well-being of ordinary people. The higher the index, the greater the economic misery.The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in May, which is pretty low historically. However, the concern that high inflation will lead to recession will affect the job market and have a negative impact on corporate hiring. In June, the U.S. employment market showed a low trend in unemployment benefit claims but a clear increase of initial claims. Pressure on the job market will become more apparent as time goes by. The misery index has already soared to 12.2, higher by historical standards than that of any of the post-WWII recessions.

Third, the housing market, which had been a driver of growth, has also seen a significant ebb. The index of homebuilder confidence fell two points to 67 in June, its lowest level since June 2020 and the sixth straight monthly decline. As treasury yields continue to rise, 30-year mortgage rates have risen by 2 percentage points, returning to the level last seen more than a decade ago. In the most interest-sensitive sector, a surge in mortgage rates will dampen buying demand, bringing prices down and thus impacting the property market.

Throughout the history of America's fight against inflation, recession is the inevitable price. From 1979 to 1982, Paul Volcker, who was chairman of the Fed, made a resolute decision to fight inflation with sharp interest rate hikes. In the process, the public came to appreciate the Fed's determination to control inflation. Inflation expectations were eventually reversed and inflation was gradually brought down to around 5 percent, but Volcker's epic battle against inflation also led to the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s and a 10 percent unemployment rate.

When Volcker was in office, monetary tightening sent the federal funds rate soaring to a peak of 20 percent. The current target range for the rate is between 0.75 and 1 percent, which means a very long journey ahead on the path of raising rates and tightening. This round of inflation has been stubborn and structural. It is almost impossible to bring core inflation down to 2 percent without tipping the economy into recession. The U.S. economy will inevitably experience a Volcker-style contraction.

As the U.S. is the world's largest economy and the U.S. dollar is the world's main settlement currency, the Fed moving into an interest rate raising cycle will obviously bring multiple risks to the global economy. Many economies have followed suit in raising interest rates. According to a BofA Global Research report, some central banks have cumulatively raised interest rates 124 times this year, more than the total in 2021. They did so only six times in 2020. Continued cumulative monetary tightening will lead to a sharp tightening of global financial conditions. Downward pressure from high inflation and monetary tightening, plus higher replacement costs due to the reversal of globalization and the restructuring of supply chains, could drive up the risk of stagflation for the whole world.