世界两大经济体之间的紧张关系，以及持续不断的疫情（新冠病毒变种奥密克戎的出现使之变得更糟）让各国政府和跨国公司倍感担忧，使本已吃紧的全球供应链愈发复杂化。对大多数政府和企业来说，除了加强防范策略，如限制入境和鼓励接种疫苗，它们能做的并不多。奥密克戎和全球疫情也致使就业者在11月份以前所未有的速度放弃他们的工作，职位空缺率接近历史最高水平，显示去年美国劳动力市场仍然紧张。这也说明美国经济相当健康，人们离职，但又在其他行业找到工作。美国劳工部1月4日的报告称，11月底的职位空缺达1060万个，12月升至1200万个。更重要的是，一些行业受到了人员短缺的严重影响，其中包括零售业、娱乐和住宿、专业服务和商业服务、医疗卫生和社会援助。

新冠肺炎及其变异株德尔塔（Delta）和当前的奥密克戎（Omicron）带来的一个重要副产品是加大了通胀压力。美联储终于承认通胀压力不再是暂时的，它最近宣布2022年可能会有多达三次的加息。而病毒新变种导致经济生态系统的进一步恶化，影响着油价和其他要素。对35位经济学家和分析师的调查显示，2022年布伦特原油均价预计达每桶73.57美元，比11月他们一致认为的75.33美元约低2%。

尽管拜登政府试图营造一个充满希望的基调，但中国面对奥密克戎仍较保守。中国的“零容忍”政策是要遏制一切局部传染激增和疫情暴发，这意味着一些港口不堪重负，人手不足。由于近来疫情在全球暴发，预计中国将加大“零容忍”力度，在以往，其做法包括大规模封锁整个城市、强制隔离对港口进行严格检查，包括检查船只和货物，以防病例进入境内。虽然是为了减少病毒的传播，但这种策略对中美贸易产生了负面影响。目前没有任何迹象表明中国政府会很快放松它的政策。

在全球供应链方面，如果奥密克戎破坏了全球经济复苏，美国会如何应对？拜登政府已经与洛杉矶港达成一项协议，后者调整为全天24小时运营。美国政府还在一次全球协调努力中，从战略石油储备释放了原油。总之，这些措施旨在缓解供应链的约束，压低油价。从那以后，油价下降了，在假日季来临之前港口的滞留时间也减少了30%。然而，这种正面影响是不够的。在这一年，2021年假日季销售的增长是17年来最快的，比2020年增长8.5%。此外，假日季销售更比2019年增长了10.7%，这导致运输业将迎来又一个供应链中断的大起大落年。追踪11月1日至12月24日消费者支出状况的支出衡量表显示，服装（47%）和珠宝（32%）的销售增幅最大，这些买给亲朋好友的礼物很可能在假日季过后投送到。

目前，美国卡车司机的人员缺口约为4.8万，也有消息称缺口达8万。司机人手不足影响到整个经济，因为疫情之前美国68%以上的货物是通过高速公路运送的。卡车运输业的困境继续说明供应链的前景越来越暗淡。

资源来源：STAT

美国的奥密克戎病例何时见顶？

根据我们分析的几个模型，美国的奥密克戎病例很可能在1月底达到顶峰。然而，更广泛的影响是，病毒新的变种进入美国和国际社会只是时间问题，而不是有无问题。比方说，假如新变种每年大约出现两次，那么我们可以预计每年将会有多次疫情暴发，包括在夏季。而如果这类变种出现的频率较低，那么疫情可能是每年暴发一次，甚至更少。疫情的严重程度将取决于病毒新变种的具体特性，以及之前的感染、疫苗接种或新的药物能否降低人们的重症风险。

企业的中国+1模式

疫情给全球供应链带来的教训之一，就是让全球企业认识到它们不能把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。为此，全球供应链正从中国转向东南亚国家，特别是越南，以抵消中国在全球供应链的支配地位。但这种供应转移已经中止。越南缺少遏制病毒新变种的基础设施和实力。12月27日，越南报告了首例奥密克戎变异株感染，从英国抵达河内的一人被确诊为越南首个奥密克戎新冠病例。此人9天前抵达河内内排机场，已被隔离。鉴于奥密克戎在早期阶段的传染性是德尔塔的4.2倍，对于那些供应链转移的承接方来说，通过疫苗和检测严格守住人口稠密区是至关重要的。

企业需要有适应能力

摩根士丹利首席执行官詹姆斯·戈尔曼去年9月敦促员工回到办公室的强硬声明引起了强烈反弹，最终是一场尴尬，他不得不收回声明，承认自己采取了错误的方式。此外，纽约大学、康奈尔大学、普林斯顿大学和其他大学已决定将课程全部改为远程学习。这再次表明，不是企业和机构推动了疫情，相反，是疫情驱动着机构和全球供应链的行为。因此，企业和政府必须为人员、资本和制造业生态系统的转移制定一个更灵活、适应性更强的框架。总的来说，所有证据都表明，最新的奥密克戎变种仍然存在太多的未知。但有一件事是肯定的，那就是当前的全球供应链还没有做好应对这些前所未有挑战的充分准备。

此外，在我们的评估中，中国何时开放边境将在很大程度上取决于中国当局在即将到来的冬奥会之前和整个冬奥会期间对新冠病例的管控情况。如果北京在病例相对较少的情况下举办完冬奥会，那么我们认为，中国政府将会以分阶段的方式向其他国家开放中国的边境。

最后，随着世界开始适应又一个新冠变种，并开始视之为常态，购买行为将重新转向基于实体的服务，而不是基于在线商品，尽管这在2022年夏季之前可能不会发生。对购买行为的心理影响也可能迫使消费者重新转向线上购买，并推迟休闲旅行，这种情况至少将延续到2022年年中。

Tensions between the world's two largest economic powers and the ongoing pandemic that took a turn for the worse with the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron, is concerning governments and multinational corporations, further complicating what was already a strained global supply chain. For most governments and companies alike, there is not much that can be done aside from enhancing their guarding strategies, such as restricting border access and encouraging vaccines. Omicron and the global pandemic also led to workers quitting their jobs at unprecedented rates in November, while job openings stayed close to the highest-ever levels, signaling that the U.S. labor market remained tight last year. Alternatively, it also indicates that the U.S. economy is fairly healthy in that people left jobs but found employment in other sectors. On January 4th, The U.S. Labor Department reported that there were 10.6 million job openings at the end of November, 2021, and December saw that number jump to 12 million. More importantly, several industries are being critically impacted by staff shortages, namely: retail, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and healthcare and social assistance.

A critical byproduct of Covid-19, coupled with Delta and now Omicron, is the impact on rising inflationary pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has finally acknowledged it will no longer be transitory given their recent announcement that there could be as many as three rate hikes in 2022, and the new variant further exacerbates the economic ecosystem impacting oil prices, among other factors. A survey of 35 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $73.57 a barrel in 2022, about 2% lower than the $75.33 consensus in November.

Even though the Biden administration has tried to strike a hopeful tone, China remains more conservative with the Omicron variant. Clamping down on any localized surge of infections and outbreaks, China's “Zero-Tolerance” policy means some ports are overloaded and understaffed. Due to the recent outbreak around the globe, China is expected to double down on its “Zero-Tolerance” policy that in the past has included mass lockdowns of entire cities, forced quarantines, as well as strict checks at the ports. This includes monitoring ships and cargo to prevent cases from coming into the country. Although a tactic for reducing transmission of the virus, the policy imposes negative implications for trade between the U.S. and China. The government of China has shown no indication that it'll be relaxed anytime soon.

On the global supply chain front, if Omicron throws a wrench in the worldwide supply chain recovery works, how would the U.S. react to achieve supply chain recovery? The Biden administration worked out a deal with the Port of Los Angeles to move operations to a full 24-hour work cycle. The administration also released oil reserves from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a globally coordinated effort. Altogether, measures serve to ease supply chain constraints and elevated oil prices. Since then, oil prices have come down, and wait times at the ports are down as much as 30% before the holiday season. However, the positive impact is not adequate. This year, sales over the 2021 holiday season grew at the fastest pace in 17 years and increased by 8.5 percent since 2020 worldwide. Additionally, holiday sales were up 10.7 percent from the 2019 holiday season, causing the transport industry to brace for another roller-coaster year of supply-chain disruptions. The spending measure, which tracked consumer spending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, found that clothing (47 percent) and jewelry (32 percent) saw the largest increases. There is a high chance those gifts to family and friends will be delivered after the holiday season.

Currently, America holds a trucker driver shortage of around 48,000, and some sources indicate a shortage of 80,000. The driver shortage affects the entire economy, as over 68% of all freight is moved on U.S. highways in the pre-pandemic period. The trucking industry woes continue to paint an increasingly bleak picture for the supply chain.

Source: STAT

Tensions between the world's two largest economic powers and the ongoing pandemic that took a turn for the worse with the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron, is concerning governments and multinational corporations, further complicating what was already a strained global supply chain. For most governments and companies alike, there is not much that can be done aside from enhancing their guarding strategies, such as restricting border access and encouraging vaccines. Omicron and the global pandemic also led to workers quitting their jobs at unprecedented rates in November, while job openings stayed close to the highest-ever levels, signaling that the U.S. labor market remained tight last year. Alternatively, it also indicates that the U.S. economy is fairly healthy in that people left jobs but found employment in other sectors. On January 4th, The U.S. Labor Department reported that there were 10.6 million job openings at the end of November, 2021, and December saw that number jump to 12 million. More importantly, several industries are being critically impacted by staff shortages, namely: retail, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and healthcare and social assistance.

A critical byproduct of Covid-19, coupled with Delta and now Omicron, is the impact on rising inflationary pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has finally acknowledged it will no longer be transitory given their recent announcement that there could be as many as three rate hikes in 2022, and the new variant further exacerbates the economic ecosystem impacting oil prices, among other factors. A survey of 35 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $73.57 a barrel in 2022, about 2% lower than the $75.33 consensus in November.

Even though the Biden administration has tried to strike a hopeful tone, China remains more conservative with the Omicron variant. Clamping down on any localized surge of infections and outbreaks, China's “Zero-Tolerance” policy means some ports are overloaded and understaffed. Due to the recent outbreak around the globe, China is expected to double down on its “Zero-Tolerance” policy that in the past has included mass lockdowns of entire cities, forced quarantines, as well as strict checks at the ports. This includes monitoring ships and cargo to prevent cases from coming into the country. Although a tactic for reducing transmission of the virus, the policy imposes negative implications for trade between the U.S. and China. The government of China has shown no indication that it'll be relaxed anytime soon.

On the global supply chain front, if Omicron throws a wrench in the worldwide supply chain recovery works, how would the U.S. react to achieve supply chain recovery? The Biden administration worked out a deal with the Port of Los Angeles to move operations to a full 24-hour work cycle. The administration also released oil reserves from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a globally coordinated effort. Altogether, measures serve to ease supply chain constraints and elevated oil prices. Since then, oil prices have come down, and wait times at the ports are down as much as 30% before the holiday season. However, the positive impact is not adequate. This year, sales over the 2021 holiday season grew at the fastest pace in 17 years and increased by 8.5 percent since 2020 worldwide. Additionally, holiday sales were up 10.7 percent from the 2019 holiday season, causing the transport industry to brace for another roller-coaster year of supply-chain disruptions. The spending measure, which tracked consumer spending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, found that clothing (47 percent) and jewelry (32 percent) saw the largest increases. There is a high chance those gifts to family and friends will be delivered after the holiday season.

Currently, America holds a trucker driver shortage of around 48,000, and some sources indicate a shortage of 80,000. The driver shortage affects the entire economy, as over 68% of all freight is moved on U.S. highways in the pre-pandemic period. The trucking industry woes continue to paint an increasingly bleak picture for the supply chain.