过去十年，中国的数字支付市场迅猛发展。电子支付应用程序，尤其是微信和支付宝，已经证明中国是全球电子支付产业的先行者和践行者。很快，随着中国人民银行（央行）推出数字人民币，官方命名为“数字货币电子支付（DCEP）”，这一产业将再次见证革命性变革。

DCEP将成为世界上首个由政府支持的主要数字货币，或称“央行数字货币（CBDC）”。这种货币与实物现金和传统电子支付的不同，主要在于它们是采用分布式账本技术（DLT，也就是俗称的“区块链”）的数字代币。数字货币采用的这一技术与比特币和以太坊等加密货币类似，但CBDC是政府支持的官方货币，由央行集中规范统一发行。

虽然目前有超过90家央行在积极研究CBDC技术，但除中国央行外，瑞典央行在这条路上走得最远。瑞典试图开发自己的数字克朗，这一举动值得关注，因为瑞典是欧盟成员国之一，与其他成员国之间享有资本自由流动。这意味着如果瑞典推出数字克朗，欧盟其他成员国公民将有机会接触到数字货币。

因此，瑞典的做法或许会加速欧洲更协同一致地努力发展数字支付基础设施建设，以及随之而来的数字欧元。然而，中国的DCEP会成为以数字形态发行的首个主要货币。中国人民银行自2014年起就对数字人民币展开研究，这显示中国政策制定者们很早就把发展这一领域当成优先事项。到2020年底，DCEP已率先在深圳、苏州、成都和北京卫星城雄安开始试运行。不过，围绕DCEP对金融进化究竟意味着什么，还存在不少误读和误解。

首先，DCEP是基于DLT和加密技术的CBDC。它与比特币类似，后者同样基于DLT（被称为区块链技术）。这些技术会给数字货币提供更大的安全性，几乎令仿造伪币成为不可能。这些都意味着大幅降低运行金融基础设施的成本，同时给金融交易带来更高的透明度和可追溯性。

与在区块链技术中一样，DCEP将有防止恶意篡改的DLT应用程序。DLT基于去中心化运行。每次交易发生时，整个系统中的所有节点都会同时保留记录。因为节点众多，而记录又不可撤销，从而帮助整个系统避免被篡改的风险。

去中心化和匿名化通常被认为是比特币的关键属性。然而，比特币和其他加密货币已被证明具有高度的不稳定性，同时也无法在全球范围内被认定为法定货币。DCEP借鉴了这些货币的技术特性，同时还引入了集中管控措施。这些是“得到许可的”系统，限制哪些人可以进入系统，这与私人加密货币采用的“无许可”系统相反。

但这种DCEP还存在一个辩证逻辑上的矛盾。所有基于DLT的数字货币都天然地去中心化，因为它们防止篡改的特性依赖于多个节点“验证”区块链上的所有信息。然而，一定程度的中心化管控对于DCEP作为法定货币运行却必不可少。

因此，DCEP是一种混合型数字货币，集合了DLT的去中心化特性以及中国人民银行治下的中心化管理。由于DCEP采用的是许可系统，加密货币的一大诱人特性——匿名性——就无从确保了。中国政府采用的方法是推行一套分层的许可系统，在这套系统中，进行小额DCEP交易的电子钱包只需通过移动电话号码进行注册就可以完成。

虽然匿名性在小额点对点交易中可以得到确保，但在中国，所有移动电话号码都是经过实名认证的。因此，虽然用户彼此间可以保持匿名，但他们无法对国家保持匿名。此外，进行大额转账交易需要通过经实名认证的银行账户，这就创建出一套“可控的匿名”系统。从本质上而言，这是一套分层的匿名系统：小额交易在交易方之间可以保持匿名，但大额交易很难做到保持匿名。

这种匿名性是基于DCEP的另一大特性。它采用的是一套复杂的多层混合结构设计，拥有一套“双层运行系统”。该系统让中国人民银行负责管理整套系统，并向商业银行发行数字代币。然后，商业银行再把DCEP投向公众，并负责管理消费者通过数字钱包进行的代币交易。DCEP基于数字代币的一大优势就是金钱可以不通过中间人而从一方转移到另一方。

据报道，目前正在开发一款当电池电量不足时可以离线运行的电子钱包，这令停电时进行电子支付成为可能。双层运行系统也会令DLT系统内的主要节点附着在中国商业银行和其他金融机构系统内。官方认为，这样一种系统很好地利用了现存资源，虽然它也会帮助现有金融机构逃避被淘汰的命运。

DCEP只在几个方面是完全创新的。虽然利用了DLT，但它与私人加密货币存在关键的不同。它更多是一个混合体，意图在DLT带来的便利高效和安全的支付系统之间取得平衡。“分层”的匿名性会增加DCEP的信息收集量，并在保护隐私的同时打击犯罪。更为重要的是，它的中心化管理特性将使它成为货币政策运行、进而开展宏观经济管理的强大工具。

DCEP的推出也会对人民币国际化进程、货币政策实施以及中国整体经济战略产生影响。我会在以后的分析中探讨这些重要议题。现在，我检视的是中国政府对货币本身进行革命性变革这一根本性的倡议。

随着金融透明度和可追溯性达到一个新高度，货币政策的提升空间也得到拓展。例如，当经济下行时，央行可以更好地针对受影响最大的产业。实时的信息收集和分析将给经济数据带来全新的维度，这会帮助央行直接向受困的企业和个人发放基金和贷款。完全依靠利率水平指导经济活动的做法将变得粗暴又过时。

DCEP也会加速货币交易，包括国际货币交易。然而，DCEP的实施也会不断面临巨大障碍，包括计算能力、开发人工智能工具对数据进行分类并管理，以及不同DLT系统之间的兼容性。中国人民银行正在谨慎前行，先在地方对DCEP进行测试，并计划在2022年北京举办冬奥会期间进行一场大规模测试。预计很可能于2023年在更大范围内正式推出。

除了技术壁垒，发行DCEP也需要对监管和法律进行根本性改革。不管怎样，成为首个发行主要CBDC的国家是中国的雄心壮志。透明度和可追溯性的提升，加上拥有史无前例规模的经济数据，这些都将以前所未见的方式改革并强化货币政策。但讽刺的是，一项本意为了规避中央协同和权力集中而开发出来的技术，现在很可能引发一场货币管控进而增强政府权威的巨大进步。

Over the past decade the digital payments market in China has developed rapidly. E-payment apps, especially WeChat Pay and Alipay, have proven that China is an early adopter and implementer in the global e-payments industry. Soon, this industry will be revolutionized once more as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) rolls out a digital yuan, officially designated as the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP).

DCEP will be the world's first major state-backed digital currency, or Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Such currencies differ from both physical cash and traditional electronic payments in that they are digital tokens that use distributed ledger technology (DLT), commonly known as “blockchain”. The technology they're built on is thus similar to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, but CBDCs are official state-backed tender, issued in a centralized and regulated manner by central banks.

Besides the PBoC, the Swedish Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, is furthest along, although there are more than 90 other central banks actively researching CBDC technology at present. Swedish efforts to develop their own digital Krona are noteworthy as Sweden is an EU member state with free capital movements to the EU. This implies that if an e-Krona is initiated, citizens of other EU states will have access to a digital currency.

The Swedish initiative could thus accelerate more concerted efforts to develop Europe's digital payment infrastructure and, in turn, a digital Euro. However, China's DCEP promises to be the first major currency issued in digital form. The PBoC has been conducting research on a digital yuan since 2014, illustrating how long this area has been a priority for Chinese policy-makers. By late 2020 the DCEP was already being used in various trials launched in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Beijing satellite city Xiong'an. Nonetheless, there remain a number of misconceptions and misunderstandings regarding what the DCEP represents for financial evolution.

First, the DCEP is a central bank digital currency built on DLT and cryptographic technology. It's comparable to Bitcoin, which is also based on DLT (also referred to as blockchain technology). Such technologies promise to provide a digital currency with much greater security, practically removing the possibility of counterfeiting. All this implies much lower costs to run financial infrastructure and much greater transparency and traceability regarding financial transactions.

As in blockchain technology, the DCEP will feature DLT applications that are tamper resistant. DLT functions by decentralization. Each time a transaction occurs, entries are made in all the nodes of the system simultaneously. Since there are many nodes, and entries are irreversible, the system can be made tamper-proof.

Decentralization and anonymity are often held to be the essential attributes of Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have proven to be highly volatile and are not universally accepted as legal tender. CBDCs are taking the technological features of such currencies, but introducing measures of centralized control. These are “permissioned” systems, restricting who has access to them, as opposed to the “permissionless” systems employed by private cryptocurrencies.

A certain contradiction, or even dialectic, appears at this point. All DLT-based digital currencies are inherently decentralized, since their tamper-proof characteristics rely on a multitude of nodes “validating” all information on the blockchain. However, a degree of centralized control and management is necessary for CBDCs to function as legal tender.

The DCEP is thus a hybrid digital currency, combining the decentralized aspects of DLT with centralized management under the PBoC. Since the DCEP is permissioned, one of the attractive features of cryptocurrencies, anonymity, is not assured. The Chinese approach promotes a tiered system of permission under which electronic wallets transacting small amounts of DCEP only need to register with their cell phone number.

While anonymity is assured in small peer-to-peer transactions, cell phone numbers in China are linked to real names. Users thus remain anonymous to everyone but the state. Transferring larger amounts, moreover, will rely on registering real name bank accounts, creating a system of “controllable anonymity.” In essence, this is a tiered system of anonymity: transfers of small amounts can be anonymous among peers; larger amounts less so.

Such anonymity, in turn, is based on another feature of the DCEP. It adopts a complex multi-layer hybrid architectural design with a “two-tier operating system.” This system puts the PBoC in charge of managing the overall system and issuing actual digital tokens to commercial banks. Commercial banks then release the DCEP to the public and manage aspects of digital wallets consumers use to transact tokens. One advantage of DCEP being based on digital tokens is that money can be transferred from one agent to another independent agent without an intermediary.

Reportedly, a digital wallet that can work off-grid on battery power is in development, permitting payments even when there is an electricity outage. The two-tier operating system will also situate major nodes of the DLT system within Chinese commercial banks and other financial organizations. Authorities hold that such a system makes full use of existing resources, though it also protects existing financial institutions from becoming obsolete.

These are only a few of the innovative aspects of the DCEP. Although it employs DLT technology, it differs from private cryptocurrencies in important respects. It is very much a hybrid and aims to balance various features of DLT that can create a convenient, yet efficient and secure payments system. Anonymity is “tiered” to enable the DCEP to increase data collection and crack down on crime while maintaining privacy. Most significantly, its centralized attributes will make it an enormously powerful tool for the operation of monetary policy, and thus macro-economic management.

The introduction of the DCEP holds implications for the internationalization of the yuan, the conduct of monetary policy, and China's overall economic strategy. I will address these important topics in future analyses. For now, my examination portrays a fundamental and deliberate initiative by Chinese authorities to revolutionize money itself.

With a new level of financial transparency and traceability, it expands the scope for monetary policy improvement. For instance, in an economic downturn central banks can much better target sectors suffering the most. Real time collection and analysis will generate a whole new dimension of economic data. This could empower central banks to directly grant funds or loans to businesses/individuals in trouble. Relying solely on the price of money (interest rates) to guide economic activity would then seem crude and outdated.

The DCEP will also speed up monetary transactions, including international ones. However, its implementation continues to face considerable hurdles, including the availability of sheer computing power, the development of artificial intelligence tools to sort and manage data, and the inter-operability of various DLT systems. The PBoC is proceeding very cautiously, first testing the DCEP in localized trials. One major test is slated for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. A widespread official launch is thus most likely in 2023.

Besides technological hurdles, the launch of the DCEP will also necessitate fundamental regulatory and legal reform. Nonetheless, China's ambition is to be the first to launch a major CBDC. Enhanced transparency and traceability with unprecedented access to economic data is then likely to reform and strengthen monetary policy in as yet unanticipated ways. Quite ironically, a technology that was invented to circumvent centralized coordination and power is now likely to trigger a substantial enhancement of monetary control and hence state authority.