美国总统唐纳德·特朗普最近发推特说，华为可以成为潜在贸易协议的一部分。换言之，美国近期对华为的禁令并非真出于国家安全原因——这一指控毫无根据——而是将其当成与中国达成“伟大协议”的筹码。在美国宣布从5月10日起把2000亿美元中国商品关税税率从10%提高到25%，以及美国贸易代表公布即将加征25%关税的3250亿美元中国商品清单后，美国财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦又立刻表示愿意继续和中国进行谈判。上述种种让人相信，这一最新的更粗大棒也属于特朗普“交易的艺术”，即用极限施压来获取最好协议。这也给最近中美贸易谈判突然中断提供了解释：美国政府欲索要更多。美国挥舞更粗大棒，逼迫中国投降的同时又要求谈判，这将确保美中全面贸易协议有利于美国。

特朗普总统似乎对这一结果很满意，宣称美国因上调关税可以从中国那里收到1000亿美元，并迫使制造业从中国转移到越南。不过，这种“交易的艺术”却遭到中国断然拒绝，并且，特朗普的沾沾自喜也仅仅是因为错误的经济学知识，以及对历史的误解。

中国政府非但没有投降，反而立刻予以反击，提高了600亿美元美国商品的关税，并对华为表达了坚定支持。中国财政部还宣布，对中国的芯片和软件研发提供五年财政支持。外交部和商务部发言人均对美国最新举动予以谴责，强调中国不想打、不愿打，但也不怕打，并将奉陪到底。发言人还指责华为禁令是美国政府对个别企业的不合理打压。中国媒体也纷纷强烈批评美国这一做法。中国政府已经排除了达成一份倾向于美国利益协议的可能，并强调任何协议必须双方平等互利。

中国没理由同意美国予取予求

美国对中国的“极限施压”因此似乎完全无效。中国没有必要向美国让利，因为美国不是中国加入WTO的受害者。中国加入WTO不是美国仁慈的礼物，那一刻也不是中国经济和贸易起飞的开端。在中国加入WTO之前的17年（1985-2001），中国年均GDP增速就高达9.8%。在中国加入WTO之后的17年（2002-2018），中国年均经济增速降至9.2%。中国在加入WTO前17年出口累计增幅为901.8%，而加入后17年的累计增幅为834.8%。由此可见，中国的快速经济增长始于1980年代早期的改革开放，而加入WTO只是总体开放进程的一部分，加入后的经济高增速只是既有趋势的延续。

此外，正如上文所说，美国绝非是中国加入WTO的“受害者”。据美国商务部发布的贸易数据，2002-2017年间，美国对中国出口累计增长了487.0%，是同期美国全球出口总额累计增幅（123.1%）的近四倍。同期，美国从中国的进口额累计增长了303.8%，是其全球进口额增幅（101.7%）的三倍，但增幅显著低于对中国的出口增幅。

关税和华为禁令同样损害美国

特朗普“关税由中国支付”的观念是基于错误的知识框架。基础贸易经济学告诉我们，关税是由进口者而非出口者支付的。事实上，对中国商品加征的关税由美国进口商支付，他们再将部分负担转嫁给美国消费者和用户。据美国工商组织“关税伤害美国腹地”2019年5月24日发布的估算数字，2018年关税令美国消费者损失250亿美元，相当于贸易战每秒钟让美国人损失810美元。随着2000亿美元中国商品关税被上调，额外3250亿美元中国商品还可能被加征25%关税，这些负担还将显著上升。

一个基本现实是，美国很难找到中国商品的替代供应方。目前已经被加征25%关税的2500亿美元中国商品中，美国对超过1000亿美元中国商品的进口依赖度超过50%。例如，美国2018年从全球进口了4140.3亿美元电脑和电子产品，其中1864.5亿美元进口自中国，占比为45%，超过其他八大供应方的总和。美国进口商如今能去哪里找到替代供应商？2018年，美国玩具市场规模为280亿美元，其中进口额高达184.9亿美元。中国占美国玩具进口总额的88%，金额达163.2亿美元。美国玩具经销商从哪里去找这种规模的供应商？因此，美国进口商、零售商和消费者别无选择，只能支付更高的价格。在中间商品方面，用户们将面临更高的成本和更低的利润。据估计，对2500亿美元中国商品加征25%关税，将导致一个美国四口之家每年多支出767美元，并还将威胁到93.4万个就业机会。据行业团体“贸易合作伙伴”的分析，如果特朗普对剩余的3250亿美元中国输美商品也加征25%关税，将导致美国损失210万个就业岗位，美国四口之家每年将多支付超过2000美元。瑞银集团（UBS）近期的一份研究预计，今年将有1.2万家美国零售商关门，而对中国商品加征关税将导致美国零售商成本进一步升高。沃尔玛、梅西百货以及其他主要零售商已感受到了冲击。

在中国供给侧一方，美国在中国的跨国公司贡献了中国对美国出口的50%。关税也将损害它们的利益。中国美国商会近期的一项会员调查显示，74.9%的受访者认为关税损害了自己在中国的竞争力，52.1%的受访者表示需求降低，42.4%的受访者表示制造业成本升高，38.2%的受访者表示出现销售额下滑。

特朗普政府的华为禁令也对全球半导体研发、制造和应用的供应链造成巨大破坏。2018年，华为在全球有1.3万个供应商，采购了700亿美元设备和服务，其中110亿美元来自高通等美国供应商。美国领先的芯片制造商也有自己的全球供应链。禁令迫使华为执行B计划，即采用自己的芯片和系统，这破坏了国际供应链，并同样损害了美国高科技行业。中国市场的销量占美国前十大芯片厂商全球销量的比重很大，思佳讯的比重达80%，高通为63%，科尔沃为60%，博通为52%，美光科技为50%，英特尔为23%。如果丢掉了庞大中国市场的销售额，美国芯片巨头们将难以维持它们对研发的巨额投入来确保其国际领先地位。这也是为何美国科技股在过去一周出现暴跌。

持续的紧张局势毫无疑问将影响中国的出口、工业、就业和经济增速。同时，美国经济也将受损。美国经济已经显露出弱化迹象。尽管2019年第一季度美国GDP增速仍达3.2%，但其主要支柱个人消费开支和私人固定资产投资合计只贡献了1.09个百分点，低于2018年第四季度的2.20个百分点。这一趋势在4月份得到延续，零售销售下滑0.2%，工业生产下滑0.5%。

世界经济也将成为中美贸易战的受害者。IMF最近一篇文章说，如果对全部中美贸易加征关税，全球GDP将损失0.3%。如果贸易关系继续恶化，经合组织预计到2021年全球GDP将损失0.7%，即约6000亿美元。

事实将再一次证明，贸易战不会有赢家。美国的单边贸易霸凌正在走进死胡同。唯一的出路是基于WTO规则的面对面谈判，达成双方平等互利的协议，结束目前的紧张局势，并将双边贸易、全球经济带回正轨。

US President Donald Trump said recently on Twitter that Huawei could be part of a potential trade deal. In other words, America's recent outright ban on Huawei was not truly done for national security reasons — there was no evidence supporting the allegations — but rather as a bargaining chip to help get “a great deal” with China. Immediately after announcing the US tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% starting May 10, and the subsequent US Trade Representative's release of the list of $ 325 billion of Chinese goods subject to 25% tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin expressed willingness to continue talks with China. All of the above leads people to think that this latest and much larger stick is also part of Trump's “art of the deal” — extreme pressure to produce the best deal possible. It also provides an explanation for the recent abrupt suspension of China-US trade talks: the US government wants much more. It thus made the stick much bigger, then asked for talks while pressing for a decisive Chinese defeat, that ensures a comprehensive US-China trade deal would be in America's favor.

President Trump seems happy with the outcome, claiming that the US could collect $100 billion from China from tariff hikes and force manufacturing activities to move from China to Vietnam. However, the “art of the deal” has just received a strong rebuff from China, and Trump's seeming happiness is merely the result of faulty economics and a mistaken understanding of history.

Instead of yielding at all, the Chinese government immediately counterattacked. It raised tariffs on $60 billion of US goods and vowed its strong support for Huawei. Then Chinese Ministry of Finance announced five years of fiscal support for chip and software R&D in China. The Foreign Ministry and Commerce Ministry spokesmen both condemned the latest US moves and reiterated that China is for trade talks, not for trade war, but is not afraid of the trade war and will fight to the very end. The spokesmen also accused the US government of using the Huawei ban as an unreasonable government suppression of an individual company. Strong criticism prevailed in the Chinese media. The Chinese government has excluded any possibility of a deal tilted towards American interests by reiterating that any deal must be equitable for both parties.

China Has No Reason to Grant the US a Favor

The “extreme pressure” America has put on China thus seems to have been ultimately useless. China does not need to yield a favor to the US as the US was not the loser from China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China's WTO accession was not a benevolent gift from the US—still less did that moment mark the start of China's economic and trade takeoff. During the 17 years from 1985 to 2001, before China joined the WTO, China's average annual GDP growth rate hit 9.8%. During the 17 years after WTO accession, 2002-2018, the average annual growth rate slowed down somewhat to 9.2%. Chinese exports grew by an aggregate of 901.8% during the 17 years before WTO accession and 834.8% during the 17 years post-accession. Thus China's fast growth started from the early 1980s since its reform and opening-up, and the WTO accession was only a part of the overall process of opening-up—the fast growth after that was the continuation of the already existing trend.

Furthermore, as stated above, the US was not by any means a “loser” from China's WTO accession. According to the trade data released by the US Department of Commerce, during 2002-2017, US exports to China grew by an aggregate 487.0%, almost four times the speed of its global exports which grew by an aggregate 123.1%. During the same period, US imports from China grew by an aggregate 303.8%, three times the speed of its global imports (101.7%), but considerably slower than its exports to China.

Tariffs and Huawei Ban Hurt America as Well

Trump's notion of “tariffs paid by China” is based on a mistaken framework. Basic trade economics tells that the tariffs are paid by the importer, not exporter. In fact, the hiked tariffs on Chinese goods have been paid by US importers who have passed part of the burden on to American consumers and users. According to related calculations, American firms and consumers paid additional billions of dollars in 2018 due to tariffs—as a whole, they are currently paying $810 every second. With tariff hikes on $200 billion of Chinese goods set to begin June 1 of this year, with pending additional 25% tariffs on $325 billion of Chinese goods, these burdens will rise considerably.

A basic reality is that it is extremely difficult in America to find alternate supplies to replace Chinese goods. Out of the $250 billion of Chinese goods currently subject to 25% tariffs, for over roughly $100 billion worth the US has over 50% import dependence on China. For example, the US imported $414.03 billion of computers and electronics worldwide in 2018. Out of the total, $186.45 billion, or 45.0% was from China, larger than the next 8 largest supplies combined. Where could US importers find alternate suppliers now? In 2018, the US market for toys was $28 billion, depending largely on imports worth $18.49 billion. China accounted for 88% of total imports, valued at $16.32 billion. Where else can US toy dealers find this kind of supply? As a result, US importers, retailers and consumers have little choice but to pay a higher price. In the case of intermediate goods, the users will face a higher cost and falling profit. It is estimated that the 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods will lead to $767 in additional annual costs borne by an American family of four, while further threatening 934,000 jobs. If this 25% is applied to the additional $325 billion of Chinese goods, the same family will pay $2000 more a year, and 2.1 million jobs might be lost. A recent study by UBS showed that the tariffs on Chinese goods will result in higher cost for US retailers, while 50% of the 12,000 US public retailers will close. Walmart, Macy's, and other leading retailers have already felt the shocks.

On the Chinese supply side, US multinational enterprises in China carry out 50% of Chinese exports to the US. The tariffs are also tilted to harm their interests. A recent American Chamber of Commerce member survey shows that the 74.9% of the respondents say that their competitiveness in China has been affected unfavorably by tariffs, with 52.1% respondents finding lower demand, 42.4% finding higher manufacturing cost and 38.2% finding lower sales.

The Trump administration's ban on Huawei is also causing phenomenal damage to the global supply chain for semi-conductor R&D, manufacturing, and application. Huawei had 13,000 suppliers worldwide in 2018, procuring $70 billion of devices and services, with $11 billion from Qualcomm and other US suppliers. The leading US chipmakers also have their own global supply chains. The ban has hit Huawei and forced the latter to follow Plan B — its own chips and systems — thus breaking the global supply chain and hurting America's high-tech sector as well. China's market accounted for a major share of the top 10 US chipmakers' worldwide sales. It varied from 80% of Skyworks Solution, 63% of Qualcomm, 60% of Qorvo, 52% of Broadcom, 50% of Micron, all way down to 23% of Intel. Without the massive sales revenue from the huge Chinese market, the US chip giants will be in a difficult position to continue their huge inputs of R$D to maintain leadership in this global, cutting-edge technology. That's the reason why US tech stocks nosedived over the past week.

The continuous trade tensions will undoubtedly affect China's exports, industry, jobs, and GDP growth. Meanwhile, the US economy will also suffer. The US economy is already showing signs of weakening. Although its GDP grew by 3.2% during Q1, 2019, its fundamentals — personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and private fixed investment combined, contributed only 1.09 percentage points, down from 2.20 in Q4 of 2018. The trend continued into April with retail sales down 0.2% and industrial production down 0.5%.

The world economy will also be a victim of the China-US trade war. A recent IMF article found that if the hiked tariffs were to apply to all China-US trade, world GDP would be cut by 0.3%. If trade relations continue to deteriorate, the OECD forecasts that global GDP would fall by as much as 0.7%, or roughly $600 billion, by 2021.

Facts will prove once again that there will be no winner from a trade war. The unilateral trade bullying by the US is running into a dead end. The only way ahead is through face-to-face trade talks on the basis of WTO rules, to reach agreements equitable and beneficial to both sides, thus ending the current tension and bringing bilateral trade, as well as the world economy, back to a normal track.