从公布的数据来看，今年一季度中国GDP增长6.7%，好于市场预期。特别是3月份许多数据更是让人信心大增，比如，国内固定资产投资增长11.1%，比1、2月时的10.2%加速；基建投资增长19.6%；房地产开发投资上升6.2%；规模以上工业产值增长6.8%，为去年6月以来最高水平。其中，水泥产量大增24%，汽车和钢材也分别增长8.9%及3.3%。

看到这些数据市场一片欢呼，认为中国经济已经开始触底回升。试想，欧美国家GDP增长不到2%，中国则可达近7%，中国的GDP增长是欧美国家三倍以上。这时，要再说中国经济会硬着陆根本就不可能。不过，当前中国经济应该是喜中有忧。

从现有的数据来看，尽管一季度GDP增长是在政府的规划目标内，但它是重新在走早几年通过大搞基础设施、过度信贷扩张来促使房地产市场及房价上涨的老路。也就是说，一季度GDP增长主要得助于政府增加基础建设及房价上涨并拉动住房销售增加来实现的。以这样的方式来保证中国的GDP增长，或许还可持续一年半载，但没有可持续性，甚至问题会更大。

首先从国内固定资产投资增长情况来看，今年一季度的增长是有所好转，但是这种增长主要表现为增加大型基础设施投资，表现为国有企业投资增长及房地产投资增长，而民营经济固定资产投资不仅没有增长，反而出现了下降。因为，在当前的形势下，民营企业并不看好国内经济前景，也不愿意增加投资。对于大型公共基础设施的投资，增加一些没有多少问题，它总是会有一个长期效应。但这里有两个问题要解决，一是政府财政能否支持，二是这些低效益投资如何维持。如果政府财政支持不了，就会面临着许多问题。比如目前地方政府的债务问题，就是中国金融市场中的一个巨大潜在风险。

还有，今年一季度的GDP增长比市场预期要好，与政府过度信贷扩张支持房地产有关。从所公布的数据来看，今年一季度新增贷款达到4.61万亿元。其中，房地产新增贷款1.5万亿元，个人住房按揭贷款更是新增加1万多亿元，增幅达一倍。一季度社会融资规模高达6.59万亿元，而这些资金有3万多亿流入房地产市场。可以说，这些数据都创历史最高纪录。这不仅表明今年的信用过度扩张程度比2009年更为严重，也意味着信用过度扩张的资金没有流入实体经济而是流入房地产。

更为重要的是，今年一季度GDP增长不仅主要来自于房地产拉动，更是来自于信用过度扩张把房价推高，来自于房价上涨的拉动。一季度70个大中城市有62个城市的房价同比上涨，而一线城市房价上涨的疯狂更是前所未有，比如深圳同比上涨62%以上。一季度全国住房销售总额增长幅度比住房销售面积增长幅度快一倍以上。

这些都表明当前一线二线城市的住房市场复苏很大程度上是建立在房价快速上涨的基础上，建立在绝大多数有房者利用当前国家住房按揭贷款的优惠条件及税收优惠条件投机炒作的结果，而不是住房消费需求的释放。正因为这样，只要城市房价上涨，住房投机炒作者就会千方百计涌入这些市场，并让这些城市的房价狂升，但对于近一年来房价没有起色或没有上涨的三四线城市，尽管这些城市的房价并不高，但是由于投资者不进入，无论政府采取什么救市政策，这些地方的住房市场就是难以复苏，房地产市场的库存也无法消化。

但是，如果住房市场仅是投资投机者疯狂炒作，在当前许多城市房价非常高的情况下，再继续把这些城市的房价泡沫吹大，虽然短期内这些城市的住房销售会增长，住房供给很快又会出来，房地产市场可出现繁荣，GDP会上去，但这种房地产市场的繁荣不仅不可持续，而且面临的风险更大。同时，房价过高对居民的消费具有严重的挤出效应。一季度社会消费增长只有10.3%，比去年全年10.7%有所放缓，其负向作用十分明显。

所以，对于当前中国的经济形势，一方面要看到GDP增长下行的压力有所放缓，经济增长有所反弹，但这主要是靠政府基础设施投入及房地产投机炒作来拉动，而居民内需并不是那样理想。就此，中国经济喜中有忧十分明显。

Recently released figures show that China's GDP in the first quarter grew by 6.7%, better than market expectations. In particular, many figures from March are very encouraging. For example, domestic fixed-asset investment grew by 11.1%, higher than 10.2% from January to February; infrastructure investment increased by 19.6%; investment in real estate development grew by 6.2%; production of large-scale industries grew by 6.8%, the highest level since last June. In large-scale industries, the cement output rose sharply by 24%. Auto and steel industries also increased 8.9% and 3.3% respectively.

The market cheered at these figures, believing than China's economy had begun to bottom out and rebound. Just think, the GDP of the US and European countries grew less than 2% while China's GDP was approaching 7%, three times greater. So it is absurd to predict that China's economy will have a hard landing. However, the cheering about China's economy is mixed with worry now.

Although GDP growth in the first quarter hit the target set by the government, it again took the old road: Intensive infrastructure construction and excessive credit expansion were used to push up prices in the real estate market and the home prices like in the past years. That is to say, the GDP growth in the first quarter mainly came from increased government infrastructure construction and home sales boosted by surging home prices. China's GDP growth fueled by these sectors could continue for one year or so but not constantly and may even create a bigger problem.

First, the domestic fixed-asset investment growth improved in the first quarter but the growth mainly occurred due to the increased large-scale infrastructure investment, the increased investment of the State-Owned Enterprises and the increased real estate investment. However, the fixed-asset investment of private enterprises decreased instead of increasing. In the present situation, the private enterprises are not optimistic about domestic economic prospects and are unwilling to increase investment. As to the large public infrastructure investment, it is all right to increase some investment, for this investment will always have a long-term effect, but two issues must be solved. The first is whether the government can support it; the second is how the investment with a low return can be supported. If the government finance fails to give support, many issues will arise. For instance, now the high debt of local governments is a huge potential risk in China's financial market.

Meanwhile, the government has supported the real estate market through excessive credit expansion. The recent figures show that new loans in the first quarter of the year rose to 4.61 trillion yuan. New loans for real estate accounted for 1.5 trillion yuan, of which new personal home mortgage loans increased to 1 trillion yuan. The total social financing in the first quarter was as high as 6.59 trillion yuan, 3 trillion yuan of which flew to the real estate market. These are all-time high figures. It not only indicates that credit expansion this year is more excessive than even in 2009, but also highlights that the capital from that expansion did not flow to the real economy but rather to real estate.

In fact, the GDP growth was led by rising home prices because of the excessive credit expansion. In the first quarter, home prices in 62 out of the 70 large-and-medium sized cities rose over the same period while home prices in the first-tier cites went unprecedentedly crazy. For example, home prices in Shenzhen rose by 62% over the same period. Besides, total national home sales in the first quarter increased over one time faster than the saleable home area.

All these figures show that, to a large extent, the current home market in the first-tier and the second-tier cities revived because of the fast-rising home prices and because of the speculative manipulation by many home owners taking advantage of the preferential household mortgage loan policies and preferential tax policies, rather than a real demand for more housing. If any city has rising home prices, home speculators have been flooding into that market and make home prices skyrocket. But for almost a year, for those third-tier and fourth-tier cities where home prices did not increase, because investors did not enter these cities despite low home prices and no matter what bailout policies the government had taken, the housing market of these cities remained stagnant and the housing inventories could not be digested.

However, if the housing market is manipulated only by speculators, in the current situation where many cities have very high prices, the crazy home speculation in these cities will continue to make a bigger price bubble. Of course, these cities will have rising home sales in the short-term and the home supply will be quickly replenished, then the real estate market will boom and GDP can go up. But, this real estate market boom is not only unsustainable, it also will ultimately squeeze out buyers seeking a place to live instead of short-term economic gain. Social consumption only grew by 10.3% in the first quarter, lower than last year's figure of 10.7%, and the negative effect is very clear.

So, China's current economic situation is that the downward pressure of GDP growth has eased a bit and the economy has rebounded somewhat mainly because of government's investment in the infrastructure and the real estate speculation while the domestic residential demand is not so satisfying. Therefore, there is obviously a mixed picture about China's economy.