中国股市2016年开年便经历了前所未有的震荡，第一个星期前四个交易日出现两次“熔断”。中国证监会最后一个交易日暂停这一机制，引起股市短暂反弹，之后又是新一轮下跌。进入新年后的两个星期，上证指数累计下跌18%，跌至2015年8月以来最低点。加上人民币对美元大幅贬值，中国A股市场引起全球股市连锁反应，导致今年第一周共蒸发掉2.3万亿美元。全球媒体弥漫着对中国经济的悲观情绪。IMF经济顾问兼研究部门主管莫里斯·奥布斯特费尔德认为中国经济是2016年全球经济前景中的最大隐患，表示“中国增长下降的全球溢出效应……比人们的预期更大”。

1月19日，中国国家统计局公布2015年中国经济增长6.9%，为1990年以来最低，其中第四季度增长按年率计算只有6.8%。考虑到股市的糟糕表现、人民币贬值以及一系列新的坏数据，许多经济学家怀疑中国经济增长实际上还达不到这个水平。

最近一系列经济指标确实显示出中国经济的下行趋势，而且逐季下行的趋势还在继续。2015年12月，官方的制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为49.7，低于预期（49.8），仍处在收缩区间。2015年全年，消费价格指数（CPI）仅比上年增长1.4%，生产者价格指数（PPI）比2014年下降5.9%，表明工业生产困难重重，需求不足产能过剩。尽管2015年全年工业总产值增长6.1%，但前11个月的名义工业收入仅比上年同期增加了1%。

鉴于中国政府将集中精力去产能去库存，许多经济学家认为，经济下行趋势不仅会继续，而且还会加剧。

中国股市并不反映经济基本面

2016年初以来的股市动荡再次证明，中国股市基本独立于经济基本面，并不是可靠的经济晴雨表。2010-2013年，虽然中国经济属于最佳之一，但中国股市却是全球表现最差之一。2014年6月中旬，中国股市突然兴奋，跟着进入为期12个月的繁荣期。上证指数从2014年6月12日的2051.71点，一路攀升至2015年6月12日的5166.35点，在整整365天里上涨了151.8%！而在这12个月当中，继2013年第四季度增长率下降之后，中国经济走出一条下行曲线。不过，仅仅两个半月后，8月26日，股市就跌至3000点以下，只是经过证监会的努力才略略稳定下来。

过去几年，尤其是过去19个月里的表现，证明中国股市越来越偏离实体经济，反而基本追寻虚拟经济的发展轨迹。驱动股市的，是过于频繁的概念炒作和短期投机。因此，中国经济总体状况不在于中国股市的走势，而是要看反映国家经济健康状况的基本指标。

供给侧改革：去产能去库存，平衡考量

严重的产能过剩、房地产高库存、以及政府2016年以去产能去库存为中心任务，这些都导致人们预期GDP增长会大幅下降。不过，如果我们看看全部41个产业部门就知道，产能严重过剩而且负增长的行业只有八个。新兴产业和高科技产业，包括计算机、电信和电子产品、航空航天和铁路运输设备、医药等，全都表现良好。传统产业，包括食品加工、纺织服装、家具、皮革制品、橡胶与塑料制品、汽车及零部件等也都在稳步增长。后两大类显然并没有出现严重产能过剩。由于没有2015年全年的最新数据，以下数据显示的是前11个月情况：

由于PPI下降，工业销售额名义增长率仅为1%，实际增加值的增幅为6.2%。

上述列表显示，八个行业的产能严重过剩，这些行业占工业总产值18.1%，与四个表现良好的新兴与高技术产业所占比重恰好相等。而占总产值份额最大（24.8%）的八个传统产业仍在稳定增长并持续获利。化工产业占工业总产值的7.6%，只有轻微的产能过剩，表现不好不坏，但盈利能力良好。

总体上说，压缩产能只涉及整个工业的一小部分，不会拖垮整体工业增长。另一方面，新兴产业、高技术产业有望加速发展，进而提升整体工业的增长潜力。传统产业和化工业总体上仍将保持稳定。2016年，中国工业的整体增长只会出现小幅减速，不存在出现严重衰退的危险。

在第三产业，供给侧改革只会加快包括教育、医疗、娱乐和电信服务在内的公共产品的供给。但人们也将看到房地产业的大规模去库存化，而这有可能增加增长前景的不确定性。2015年前三个季度，房地产业对GDP增长率的贡献只有0.04个百分点。不过总体而言，第三产业的增长速度在2016年会略为提高。

结合第二产业和第三产业的情况看，我们找不到任何2016年经济增长大滑坡的理由。

需求侧：消费仍有弹性

需求方面，消费对GDP增长的贡献有望增加，投资的贡献将继续下降，净出口的贡献仍不明朗。

2015年前三季度，消费对GDP增长的贡献达58.4%，或者说拉动GDP增长了4个百分点。许多经济学家总是担心，中国的消费对GDP的贡献（如今已超过50%）仍大大低于发达国家的60-70%。这种观点有必要进一步探讨，因为路径有所不同。在美国，零售、医疗保健、教育、住房、娱乐和商业服务的收入合起来占GDP的70%以上。而如果我们在中国采取同样方法，消费比例就会变得高很多。

在中国，消费商品的销售占GDP比重高于美国。零售、网上购物、旅行旅游、文化、电信消费都在稳步增长，见不到任何大幅放缓的迹象。2013、2014年，消费对GDP增长的贡献为3.7个百分点，2015年前三季度达到4.0 个百分点。因此可以预料，2016年消费对GDP增长的贡献将达到3.50-4.0个百分点。

近年，固定资产投资对GDP增长的贡献在下降。与2013年、2014年的4.2、3.6相比，2015年固定资产投资对GDP增长率的贡献只有3.0个百分点，2016年的贡献很可能在3.0个百分点以下。

2015年，中国货物贸易顺差大幅增长56.7%，部分抵销了服务贸易的逆差。2016年，全球大宗商品和石油市场不会有根本性改观，中国的贸易格局将与2015年相仿。这也意味着净出口将为中国GDP增长作出积极贡献。

简言之，2016年中国经济会继续下行一段时间，整体增长速度比2015年更低。但在改革、重组取得进展和世界经济形势不断发展的基础上，经济基本面预示着中国仍会有6.5-6.8%的稳定增长。不管怎样，中国经济都不可能出现大滑坡或者“硬着陆”。

The Chinese stock market opened 2016 in unprecedented turmoil, with “circuit breaking” in two trading days out of the week's first four. CSRC suspended this mechanism late on the same day” better, resulting in only a temporary comeback, followed by a fresh fall. During the first two weeks of the new year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 18%, to its lowest level since August 2015. Together with a sharp fall of the renminbi vs the dollar, A share market caused a chain reaction across the world stock markets, with $ 2.3 trillion evaporating during the first week of the year. Pessimism about the Chinese economy spread in the world media. Maury Obstfeld, economic counsellor and director of research at the IMF, listed China as the first worry in 2016's worldwide economic prospects, saying that “the global spillovers of China's reduced rate of growth … have been much larger than we would have anticipated”.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on Jan. 19 that China's GDP grew by 6.9% in 2015, the lowest since 1990, with the last quarter of the year recorded only 6.8% annual rate. A number of economists doubt if the Chinese economy is actually running at even that rate, judging from the poor performances of the stock market and RMB depreciation, and the series of fresh poor data.

A number of recent economic indicators do show that the downward trend of the Chinese economy, after slowing downing for slowing quarters, is still continuing. The official manufacturing PMI for December 2015 stood at 49.7, lower than expected (49.8) and stayed stubbornly within the range of contraction. CPI for the whole year of 2015 was only 1.4% over a year ago, even closer to the danger of deflation. PPI, the producer price index, was off 5.9% over 2014, indicating clearly the difficulties in industrial production, faced with inadequate demand and over-capacity. Although the total added value of industrial output grew by 6.1% for the whole year of 2015, the nominal industrial revenue for the first 11 months barely managed a growth of 1% y-o-y.

As the Chinese government will focus on cutting down the over-capacity and excessive inventory, many economists believe that the downside trend will not only continue, but also intensify.

Chinese Stock Market Does Not Reflect Economic Fundamentals

The turbulent stock market since the start of 2016 has proved once again that the Chinese stock market, rather than being a reliable economic barometer, is basically independent of economic fundamentals. The Chinese stock market was one of the worst performers in the world stock markets in 2010-2013, although the Chinese economy was one of the best performers. In mid-June, 2014, however, it suddenly got excited and then underwent a booming period for 12 months. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2,051.71 on June 12, 2014 to 5,166.35 on June 12, 2015 — up 151.8% in exactly 365 days! During those 12 months, the economy followed a downside curve with GDP growth rate falling from Q4 of 2013. Then, the market tumbled to below 3,000 on Aug. 26, just two and half months later, only stabilized somewhat by the efforts of the CSRC.

The performances over the past few years, especially the last 19 months, have proved that the Chinese stock market has been increasingly deviating from the real economy, and instead, basically chasing the trajectory of fictitious economy. It has been driven by too frequent concept-making and short-term speculation. Hence, the overall scenario of the Chinese economy should not be based on the stock market moves, but on the fundamental indicators of the country's economic health.

Supply-side Reform: De-Capacity and De-Stocking, a Balanced Assessment

The serious industrial over-capacity and high real estate inventory, and the government's central task of de-capacity and de-stocking in 2016, have led to expectations of a drastic drop in GDP growth rate. However, if we examine all 41 industrial sectors, only eight are suffering from heavy over-capacity and negative growth. The newly emerging and high-tech industries, including computer, telecom and electronics, aerospace, railroad rolling stocks and pharmaceuticals are all performing well. The traditional industries, including food processing, textiles and apparel, furniture, leather goods, rubber and plastic products, and automobiles and parts, are also growing steadily. The latter two categories are apparently not suffering from heavy over-capacity. As the latest data for the whole year of 2015 is not yet available, the data below shows the first 11 months:

Due to the fall of PPI, the nominal growth rate of industrial sales grew only by 1%. The actual growth of added value was 6.2%.

The above table shows that eight sectors with serious overcapacity represent 18.1% of the total industrial output, and was exactly counter-weighted by well-performing four emerging and high-tech sectors (18.1%). Eight traditional sectors, 24.8% of the total, the largest share, are also growing steadily with sustainable profitability. Chemicals, which accounts for 7.6% of total industrial output, suffers minor over-capacity, performed neither well nor badly, but with sound profitability.

In balance, the effort to shrink capacity will only involve a minor part of the whole industry, and thus will likely not to bring down the whole industry growth. On the other hand, the emerging and high-tech sectors are likely to accelerate and thus lift the potential growth rate of all industry. The traditional sectors and chemicals will stay mostly stable. In balance, the industry growth as a whole will only be slightly slower in 2016, with no danger of a major slump.

In the tertiary sector, the supply-side reform will only accelerate the supply of public goods, including education, healthcare, recreation and telecom services. Among them, however, the real estate sector will see a major de-stocking, which will add uncertainty to the growth prospect. During the first three quarters of 2015, the real estate sector only contributed 0.04 percent point to GDP growth. Overall, growth rate in the tertiary sector could be slightly higher in 2016.

Taking the secondary and tertiary sectors together, we do not see any reason for a drastic growth rate fall in 2016.

Demand-Side: Consumption Remains Resilient

On the demand side, the contribution to GDP growth from consumption will tend to increase, while that from investment will continue to fall, and that from net exports remains unclear.

Consumption contributed 58.4% of GDP growth during the first three quarters of 2015, or pulling GDP growth by 4.0 percentage points. Many economists tend to worry that the consumption rate in China, now over 50%, is still considerably lower than in developed countries at 60-70% contribution to GDP. This argument needs further discussion, as there are different approaches. In the case of the US, the sales volume of retail, healthcare, education, housing, recreation and business services combined accounts for over 70% of GDP. If we take the same approach for China, the consumption rate would have been much higher.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Commission of Health and Family Planning, State Bureau of Tourism, Bureau of Economic Analysis of USDOC, and computed thereof.

Total sales of consumption goods in China had a higher share in GDP than that in the US. As retail sales, on-line shopping, travel and tourism, cultural and telecom consumption are all growing steadily, we don't see any drastic slowdown. Consumption contributed 3.7% to GDP growth both in 2013 and 2014, and 4.0 in the first three quarters of 2015. It is thus estimated that it will likely contribute 3.50-4.0% to GDP growth in 2016.

Fixed investment has a falling contribution to GDP growth over recent years. Its net contribution to GDP growth fell to 3.0% during the first three quarters of 2015, as compared to 3.6 in 2014 and 4.2 in 2013. 2016 will most likely see its contribution under 3.0 pct.

China saw a big jump of 56.7% in its trade-in-goods surplus in 2015, only partially offset by the growth of trade-in-services deficit. In 2016, the world commodity and oil market will not see a fundamental improvement, and thus the Chinese trade pattern will remain similar to that of 2015. It also means that net exports could also contribute positively to China's GDP growth rate.

In short, the downward trend in China's economy will continue for some time in 2016, and the overall growth rate will be even lower than in 2015. On the other side, the economic fundamentals justify predicting a steady growth rate of 6.5-6.8%, depending on the progress of the reforms and restructuring, and on the developments of world economic situation. In any event, a major slump, or “hard landing”, seems out of the question.