2015年11月22日，东盟10国联合宣布将于12月31日正式建成东盟共同体，这是东盟一体化进程中的里程碑事件。东盟共同体究竟是一个什么样的组织？它和欧盟相比有哪些相似性，又有哪些不同？它是另一个欧盟吗？

笔者认为，东盟共同体仍是一个很松散的合作机制，其整合水平依然较低；它具有明显的“亚洲特色”，在可预见的将来不会发展成为另一个欧盟。

实现地区一体化是东盟1967年成立时的梦想之一。冷战期间，东盟各国由于政治分歧很难实现合作。冷战后，东盟国家逐渐走向联合。2003年，东盟发表《东盟协调一致第二宣言》，首次提出到2020年建成东盟共同体的目标。2007年东盟峰会决定将共同体建成时间从2020年提前至2015年。按照东盟的设想，东盟共同体包括三个组成部分：经济共同体、政治安全共同体和社会文化共同体。2015年12月31日建成的共同体即上述三个共同体的集合。

但无论是东盟共同体的经济整合程度，还是各成员国在政治安全政策上的协调程度，抑或各国的社会文化融合程度，均远远无法与欧盟相比。

第一，东盟各国政治制度多样，意识形态各异，宗教差异和族群隔阂长期存在，相互之间仍存在领土领海主权争端，难以形成军事联盟或集体安全同盟。

第二，东盟各国经济发展差别悬殊，多数国家仍是农业国和能源原材料输出国，在国际产业链分工中处于低端，在基础设施互联互通、制造业发展、技术附加值提升、提高劳动生产率等方面仍离不开外部资金、技术和人力资源培训支持。这决定了东盟共同体的经济发展水平很低，难以在短期内实行类似欧盟那样的单一货币、共同财政政策，更难实现国民相互自由流动。

第三，东盟长期奉行“东盟方式”，主张“协商一致、不干涉内政”，这决定了其不可能实行欧盟那样的高度政治一体化。

第四，面对欧债危机、希腊债务危机，欧盟式的高度一体化道路已经引起东盟国家警觉和反思，东盟国家现在还未做好准备实行类似欧盟那样的单一货币（欧元）、关税联盟政策，也不可能接受类似《申根协定》那样允许各成员国居民自由免签进入别国的机制性安排。

事实上，东盟共同体在很大程度上更类似于欧洲国家50年前建成的欧洲共同体。1951年，欧洲国家签署《关于建立欧洲煤钢共同体的条约》，建立煤钢联营。1965年，欧洲国家签署《布鲁塞尔条约》，决定将欧洲煤钢共同体、欧洲原子能共同体和欧洲经济共同体合并为欧洲共同体，其最主要的特征是高度强调市场的资源配置作用，初步实现了欧洲统一大市场，因此欧共体又被称为“欧洲共同市场”。

与此类似，东盟共同体也十分强调“单一的市场和生产基地”的重要性。目前新加坡、马来西亚、文莱、印尼、泰国、菲律宾等六个经济较发达东盟成员国之间已基本实现货物贸易零关税，越南、老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸等四个经济欠发达的国家之间最迟也将于2018年基本实现货物贸易零关税。但东盟共同体在经济层面的“亮点”仅此而已。事实上，其所谓的共同生产基地、内部高度互联互通、对外强大的经济竞争力等均未实现，且在未来很长时期内能否实现都要打问号。不仅如此，东盟各国在政治安全、社会文化领域的整合多年来并无实质性进展，虽建立了东亚峰会（EAS）、东盟地区论坛（ARF）和东盟防长扩大会（ADMM+）等诸多对话平台，但多数存在执行力不够的问题，甚至因此被一些国际人士称为“清谈馆”。近年来，东盟各国更因南海问题导致内部政治、安全分歧增大。因此，东盟共同体的实际水平可想而知。

东盟共同体虽不尽如人意，但毕竟即将呱呱坠地，未来如何走好才是关键。2015年11月22日，东盟峰会在宣布年底建成共同体的同时，发布了题为《东盟2025年：携手前进》的愿景文件，为东盟共同体下一个10年将向何处去、建成什么样子作出明确规划。在这份文件中，东盟并未提出在可预见的未来建立欧盟式一体化组织的愿景，原因恐怕还是东盟各国深知其政治、宗教和文化差异太大，经济发展水平差异悬殊，领土和海洋争议悬而未决，如果完全复制欧盟模式，势必欲速则不达。从东盟自己勾勒的到2025年共同体发展蓝图看，东盟一体化仍将遵循温和、渐进、弹性、宽松的“东盟方式”。

对于东盟共同体的成立，国际社会不应过多担心。不仅如此，其未来一体化建设甚至有可能给中国、美国、印度等亚太国家带来新的合作机会。经济上，东盟共同体未来在加强基础设施互联互通、制造业升级改造、提高劳动生产率等方面，都离不开外部资金、技术和人力资源培训的支持。地区安全事务上，东盟将继续奉行“东盟方式”，继续与国际社会就反恐、打击跨国犯罪和毒品走私、救灾管理、应对气候变化等开展合作，继续通过东亚峰会、东盟地区论坛、东盟与对话伙伴（10+1）、东盟与中日韩（10+3）、东盟防长扩大会议等对话机制与世界各主要力量保持对话伙伴关系，同时促进中美在东南亚特别是南海地区保持建设性对话与合作关系。

On Nov. 22, the 10 members of ASEAN jointly announced that the ASEAN Community would be realized on Dec 31. It will be a milestone in the ASEAN integration process. What type of organization will the ASEAN Community be? What are the similarities and differences between the ASEAN Community and EU? Is it another EU? 

 In my view, the ASEAN Community remains a rather loose cooperation mechanism, with a fairly low level of integration. It has distinctive 'Asian characteristics' and will not develop into another EU in the foreseeable future.

Regional integration has been one of ASEAN's dreams since its establishment in 1967. During the Cold War, ASEAN countries found it difficult to cooperate with each other due to political differences. Since the end of the Cold War, they have gradually come together. In 2003, the Declaration of ASEAN Concord II was published, initiating the objective of creating an ASEAN Community by 2020. The 2007 ASEAN Summit decided to reduce the timeline to 2015. In ASEAN's vision, the Community will be based on three pillars, namely a security community, an economic community and a socio-cultural community. The Dec 31 announcement reflects a combination of the three.

Nonetheless, the levels of economic integration, political and security policy coordination as well as socio-cultural fusion in the ASEAN Community can not be compared with those of the EU.

First, ASEAN countries have many differences in political system, ideology and religion, with long-standing ethnic estrangements. There are still disputes over territory and sea. It will be rather difficult to form a military or collective security alliance.

Second, the level of economic development differs greatly across ASEAN countries. As most of them are agricultural producers and exporters of energy and raw materials, and remain at the low end of the global industrial value chain, they still need external financial and technological support as well as human-resources training to develop infrastructural connectivity, manufacturing, technical added value and productivity. As such the ASEAN Community's economic development level is low and it is hardly possible for it to have a single currency or a common fiscal policy, let alone free movement of people.

Third, ASEAN has long followed the 'ASEAN Way' of 'consensus' and 'non-interference in internal affairs', which makes it impossible to have political integration to the EU extent.

Fourth, in face of the European debt crisis and Greek debt crisis, the EU path to integration has put ASEAN countries on alert and caused them to reflect. ASEAN countries are not yet prepared to adopt a single currency or become a customs union, nor is it possible for them to accept an institutional arrangement similar to the Schengen Agreement that will allow their citizens visa-free entries into other member countries.

Actually, the ASEAN Community will be more similar to the European Community created 50 years ago. In 1951, six European states signed the Treaty establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). In 1965, the Brussels Treaty was signed, combining the ECSC, European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and European Economic Community (EEC) into one European Community. It stressed the market's role in resource allocation and initially achieved a unified European market. The European Community is therefore also called the European Common Market.

Similarly, the ASEAN Community also stresses the importance of a single market and production base. At present, the six relatively more developed ASEAN members, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, have basically achieved zero tariff in trade in goods among them. The four relatively less developed members, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, will also basically arrive at zero tariff by 2018.However, this is almost the only economic 'highlight' of the ASEAN Community. But they have not yet achieved and as a matter of fact are far away from a common production base, internal connectivity and external competitiveness. Moreover, ASEAN's integration effort in the political, security, social and cultural fields has not made much substantive progress. Even though multiple dialogue platforms have been created, including the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN Defence Ministerial Meeting Plus (ADMM+), the majority lack actual implementation capacity and are referred to by some as 'talk shops'. In recent years, the South China Sea issue has led to increased internal political and security differences.

Though less than being satisfactory, the ASEAN Community will be born soon. The key now is how it will be developed and where it will go. On Nov 22, when the ASEAN Summit announced the realization of an ASEAN Community at the end of the year, a vision document entitled ASEAN 2025：Forging Ahead Together was also published, providing a clear plan for the next 10 years. The document actually does not envisage an EU-style integration in the foreseeable future. ASEAN countries know too well that they have huge differences in political system, religion, culture and level of economic development, and that there are still outstanding territorial and maritime disputes. Should they decide to copy the European model, they would not be successful. According to the 2025 blueprint, they will continue following the ASEAN way, i.e., the integration process will be moderate, gradual, elastic and loose.

The international community does not need to worry too much about the ASEAN Community. Its further integration may even bring about new cooperation opportunities for countries in the Asia Pacific, including China, the US and India. Economically, the ASEAN Community will need financial, technological and human resources support to enhance connectivity, upgrade manufacturing and increase productivity. In regional security affairs, ASEAN will, in the ASEAN way, continue its cooperation with the international community in the fight against terrorism, cross-boundary crimes and drug trafficking and in disaster relief and dealing with climate change. It will maintain dialogue and partnership with all major forces in the world through such mechanisms as EAS, ARF, 10+1, 10+3 and ADMM+, and promote the maintenance of constructive dialogue and cooperation between China and US in Southeast Asia, particularly in the South China Sea.