2018年，以平昌冬奥会为契机，朝韩双边关系大为改善，迎来了久违的“半岛之春”。但随着2019年朝美河内峰会破裂，朝韩关系大幅倒退，至今仍深陷僵局。

近来，韩国总统文在寅就发展朝韩关系连续发表讲话。他先是在4月27日《板门店宣言》签署三周年之际称“半岛局势比任何时候都稳定，但当前和平局面尚待巩固，双方应基于《板门店宣言》向不可逆转的永久和平方向迈进，韩朝需要重启对话的时间点正在临近”，紧接着又在5月10日发表就任四周年特别演说时强调“未来一年将是实现半岛不可逆转和平的宝贵机会，目前正是将长时间思考付诸行动的重要时刻”。

以上讲话让世人对朝韩关系能否再现2018年的“半岛之春”充满遐想。但目前看，朝韩关系发展仍面临诸多挑战与困难，实现关系突破尚需相关各方的政治智慧与不懈的外交努力。

首先，朝美关系及核问题仍是阻碍朝韩关系发展的核心障碍。新年伊始，朝方就提出将本着“以强对强、以善对善”原则同“最大的主要敌人”美国打交道，拜登政府则以“将对朝鲜实施新战略”予以回应，朝美新一轮较量正式展开。4月30日，拜登政府披露了其对朝政策方向，但未谈及具体方案。其方向是既不搞特朗普政府式的“大交易”，也不搞奥巴马政府式的“战略忍耐”，而是通过切实可行的外交手段实现朝鲜半岛完全无核化。但在朝鲜看来，这只是“换汤不换药”。它警告，美国若依旧以冷战视角推行陈旧落后的政策和处理朝美关系的话，不久的将来会面临难以承受的危机。很明显，美朝互不信任依然根深蒂固，双边关系及核问题短期内恐难有突破。加之，拜登政府又提出朝鲜人权问题，在朝鲜看来这又是美国敌视政策的一部分，只会进一步促其增强核遏制能力。而核问题若得不到解决或取得阶段性进展，安理会涉朝决议中的制裁条款就不会放松，朝方期待的重启金刚山观光、开城工业园区也就无从谈起，更不用说韩方对朝开展大规模经济合作了。

其次，文在寅政府在发展朝韩关系上恐力不从心。文政府自2017年执政以来，积极推行“文在寅的朝鲜半岛政策”，谋求构建迈向和平统一的“和平共存”与“共同繁荣”的朝鲜半岛。但这一路走来并不顺利。随着拜登政府上台，以及文政府进入执政末期，韩国政府在发展朝韩关系方面临着不小的内外掣肘。一方面，它深受美国的牵制。2021年3月韩美举行外长防长“2+2”会谈，强调朝鲜核导问题是韩美同盟的首要关切，韩美同意在完全协调一致的对朝战略框架内解决与半岛相关的所有问题。另一方面，它深受国内事务羁绊。2022年韩国将举行总统选举。在被誉为“大选前哨战”的4月7日首尔、釜山市长补选中，执政党落败。这给进步阵营敲响了警钟，若不妥善应对，一年后韩国政坛就得变天。因此，为确保进步阵营继续执掌政权，在任内剩余时间里，文政府恐将下大力气重点解决以下两大问题：一是确保新冠疫情可控，恢复并提振经济；二是搞好党内团结，整合力量，遏制保守阵营东山再起。

第三，新冠疫情增添了朝韩重启对话与合作的变数。2018年朝鲜积极参加平昌冬奥会成为朝韩关系改善的重要契机，韩国政府一直积极谋求在东京奥运会再续“半岛之春”，进一步推动半岛和解合作，促进半岛和平。但2021年4月6日朝方以保护运动员免受新冠威胁为由，宣布不参加7月东京奥运会。4月30日朝鲜又向亚足联通报，将不参加6月在韩国举行的2022年卡塔尔世界杯亚洲区第2轮预选赛。这恐让韩国政府欲通过体育交流打破双边关系僵局的努力打水漂。

不过，2021年对朝韩意义重大，既是朝韩加入联合国30周年，也是朝韩签署《南北和解、互不侵犯、交流与合作协议书》30周年。值此重要年份，尽管双边关系发展仍面临诸多困难，但只要朝韩双方相互理解、相互尊重，抓住战略机遇，共同开创和解合作新局面是完全可能的，再现“半岛之春”也是可期的。

With the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in 2018, bilateral relations between the two Koreas improved significantly, ushering in a long-overdue “Peninsula Spring.” But with the breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi summit between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the United States, inter-Korean relations have regressed significantly and are still at a deep impasse.

Recently, President Moon Jae-in of the Republic of Korea has made successive speeches on the development of inter-Korean relations. On the occasion of the third anniversary of the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula on April 27, he said:“The situation on the peninsula is more stable than ever, but the current peace situation has yet to be consolidated. Both sides should move toward irreversible and permanent peace based on the Panmunjom Declaration. The point in time when the Republic of Korea and the DPRK need to restart dialogue is approaching.”Shortly afterward, on May 10, when the he delivered a speech on the occasion of his fourth anniversary in office, he emphasized: “The coming year will be a precious opportunity to achieve irreversible peace on the Korean Peninsula, and this is an important time to put long thinking into action.”

All this has made the world wonder whether inter-Korean relations will be able to recreate the peninsula spring of 2018. But for now, relations still face many challenges and difficulties. Achieving a breakthrough in relations requires the political wisdom and the tireless diplomatic efforts of all parties concerned.

First of all, DPRK-U.S. relations and the nuclear issue are still a core obstacle to the development of inter-Korean relations. At the beginning of the new year, the DPRK proposed to deal with its “biggest enemy” — the U.S. — based on the principle of “turning hostile or friendly accordingly,” while the Biden administration responded with “a new strategy toward North Korea.” Thus a new round of competition between the DPRK and the U.S. officially began.On April 30, the Biden administration disclosed the direction of its policy toward the DPRK, but did not talk about specific proposals. It will not use the Trump administration's “grand bargain” or the Obama administration's “strategic patience” approach but would rather use practical diplomatic means to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.The DPRK does not think this is a substantial change, and it warns that the U.S. will face an unbearable crisis in the near future if it continues to pursue its outdated old-school policies and deal with the DPRK-U.S. relations from the perspective and viewpoint of the Cold War era. Obviously, the mutual distrust between the U.S. and the DPRK is still deep-rooted, so it will be difficult to make a breakthrough in bilateral relations or the nuclear issue in the near future.In addition, the Biden administration has raised the issue of human rights in the DPRK, which in the DPRK's view is part of a hostile policy that will only further prompt the latter to promote nuclear containment. Therefore, if the nuclear issue is not resolved, or progress is not made in stages, the sanctions provisions in the UN Security Council resolution on the DPRK will not be relaxed and the DPRK's expectation of restarting tourism in Geumgangsan and the Kaesong Industrial Complex will not be possible — not to mention large-scale economic cooperation with the DPRK by the ROK.

Second, the Moon Jae-in government may be unable to develop inter-Korean relations as it wishes. Since taking office in 2017, the administration has been actively pursuing the “Moon Jae-in Korean Peninsula policy,” which seeks to build a Korean Peninsula of “peaceful coexistence” and “common prosperity” toward peaceful reunification. But the journey has not been smooth.With the Biden administration in power and the Moon administration in its final year, the ROK government faces considerable internal and external constraints in developing inter-Korean relations.It is first of all constrained by the U.S. In March of this year, the ROK and U.S. foreign ministers and defense ministers held “2+2” talks, stressing that the DPRK nuclear missile issue is the primary concern of the ROK-U.S. alliance and that the ROK and U.S. agreed to resolve all issues related to the peninsula within the framework of a fully coordinated strategy on the DPRK. In addition, the Republic of Korea is tied up in domestic affairs. It will hold a presidential election in 2022. The ruling party lost the April 7 by-elections for mayors of Seoul and Busan, which were described as a bellwether of the general election.This is a wakeup call to the progressive camp that if they do not respond properly, the political scene will change in a year. Therefore, to ensure that the progressive camp remains in power, the remainder of the Moon term is likely to be focused on two major issues: ensuring that the COVID-19 pandemic is under control for reviving the economy, and improving unity within the party to consolidate its strength and stop the conservative camp from rising again.

Third, the pandemic has added to the uncertainty of restarting inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation. The active participation of the DPRK in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in 2018 became an important opportunity to improve inter-Korean relations.The ROK government has also been actively seeking to renew the Peninsula Spring at the Tokyo Olympics to further promote reconciliation and cooperation and peace. However, on April 6 the DPRK announced that it would not participate in the Tokyo Olympics in July, saying it had to protect its athletes from the threat of COVID-19. On April 30, the DPRK informed the AFC that it would not participate in the second round of Asian qualifiers for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in the ROK in June. This threatens to derail the ROK's efforts to break the stalemate in bilateral relations through sports exchanges.

This year is significant for the DPRK and the ROK, as it marks the 30th anniversary of both their membership in the United Nations and the signing of the Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression and Exchanges and Cooperation between South and North. In this important year, although bilateral relations yet face many difficulties, as long as the DPRK and the ROK understand and respect each other, it is possible to seize strategic opportunities to create a new phase of reconciliation and cooperation, and the re-emergence of the Peninsula Spring may be expected.