美国在韩国部署“萨德”反导系统引发恶性连锁反应。美韩宣布部署“萨德”后不久，朝鲜再冒天下之大不韪，进行第五次核试验。美韩随即升高对朝战略威胁。日前美国甚至首次派出可携带核弹头的两架B-1B超音速战略轰炸机飞抵韩国上空，公开对朝叫板。朝鲜与美韩对立对抗趋于白热化，半岛形势空前恶化，并严重危及东北亚的和平与稳定。美国在韩国部署“萨德”是半岛危局的祸源乱根。尤应看到美国在韩部署“萨德”不仅针对朝鲜，还明显针对中俄，严重破坏东北亚安全格局，后患无穷。

冰冻三尺非一日之寒。朝鲜发展核武器引发半岛危局升级是美国与朝鲜非理性政策长期激烈碰撞的结果。朝核危机的实质是美朝矛盾长期未解。这两家是朝核与半岛问题的主要当事方，对事态如此恶化都负有直接和主要责任。

美国抱着冷战思维不放，坚持敌视朝鲜，把朝鲜视为异端中的异端百般打压：经济上制裁封锁，外交上围困孤立，政治上妖魔化，军事上重兵压境，尤其是在韩部署“萨德”，以图打掉朝鲜的核威慑力，使它痛感面临致命威胁。朝鲜作出如此强烈反制，在某种意义上可以说是被美国“逼上梁山”。试想，如果在朝鲜第一次核试前，当时的小布什政府能顺应朝方一再要求，改变对朝敌视政策，作出改善关系和安全保障的承诺与行动，朝鲜有可能不会走上拥核之路。但美国没有这样做，从而错失了半岛无核化的有利时机。

一个巴掌拍不响。朝鲜剑走偏锋，在核武化道路上越走越远，是半岛危机升级和乱局加剧的一大要因。面对美国强权欺凌，朝鲜作出必要反制，强化防卫手段，是正当和合理的，但走极端，坚持走核武化道路，是一大失策。朝鲜在军力上与美韩相比虽有差距，但也拥有强大的常规武器，半岛在军事上实际上保持了某种“恐怖平衡”。如果美韩进攻朝鲜，南北爆发全面战争，半岛将玉石俱焚，双方都将遭受毁灭性灾难。这是任何一方都无法承受之重。再者，东北亚是中俄地缘战略要冲，美韩投鼠忌器，担心引发中俄强烈反应，也不敢贸然对朝鲜动武。在当代历史条件下，根本不存在朝鲜南侵，美韩北侵的问题。朝鲜明知如此，明知不发展核武也能维护国家安全，却偏执于“核大国”的虚名，强行发展核武，就毫无正当性可言。朝鲜在拥核道路上越走越远，以“核大国”自居，并执意将其有核国家地位法律化，固定化，危害了世界核不扩散体系，挑战了地区和世界安全底线与人类良知，是违法不义之举，于己于人于世都会带来危险的不测后果。

解铃还需系铃人。挽救危机的鈅匙掌握在美朝手里。双方应临歧而复，尽快重开谈判，走和平协商解危之正道。美国宜切实改变对朝敌视政策，首先放弃在韩国部署“萨德”，谋求改善对朝关系，朝鲜则宜体现弃核诚意与行动，这才是解开半岛危局症结，实现半岛和东北亚安全与稳定的根本途径。

On Sept 9, North Korea, in defiance of strong global opposition, conducted its fifth and biggest, nuclear test. This is part of the chain reaction to and fearsome consequence of the US' planned deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. The US and South Korea immediately upped the ante: The US recently deployed, for the first time, two B-1B supersonic strategic bombers, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, to fly over South Korea as an open intimidation of North Korea. With the latest developments, the confrontation between North and South Korea and the US worsened, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorated, which poses a grave threat to peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The fact that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and the US planned deployment of the THAAD missile defense system on the peninsula are the cause and crux of the crisis.The deployment of the THAAD system is not only aimed at North Korea, but China and Russia sense they are targeted as well, despite US denials. This will deal a heavy blow to the security pattern in the Northeast Asia and may cause endless troubles in the future.

As the saying goes, Rome was not built in a day. The Korean nuclear issue and the subsequent escalation of the tensions on the peninsula are actually the consequences of long-term, vehement clashes between the irrational policies of both the US and North Korea. The root of the Korean nuclear crisis is the unsettled conflict between North Korea and the US. As the two parties at the center of the Korean nuclear issue, they bear direct and principal responsibility for the worsening situation.

The US has stuck to a Cold War mentality, being hostile to North Korea, and has considered North Korea the most evil among all evil states. The US has been trying every possible means to suppress North Korea with economic sanctions and blockade, with diplomatic isolation, and political demonization, and military threats aimed at the border of North Korea, in particular, the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, ostensibly as to deter North Korea's nuclear advances. All these have made North Korea feel a threat to its survival and take countermeasures.Previously, the George W. Bush administration could have adjusted its hostile policy towards North Korea and worked to satisfy some needs of North Korea by making a security pledge and taking actions to improve ties with North Korea before its first nuclear test in 2006. In that case, North Korea would probably have not embarked on the road to possess nuclear weapons. The US, however, failed to do so and missed the best opportunity of achieving the goal of a nuclear-free Korea peninsula.

As another saying goes, it takes two to tango. The fact that North Korea has stubbornly pursued nuclearization is also a major reason for the worsening situation. In the face of power politics and bullying by the US, North Korea may have reasons to take countermeasures and strengthen its defene, but it is a serious policy mistake if it goes extreme and sticks to the road of nuclearization. North Korea lags far behind the US and South Korea in terms of military power, but it possesses conventional weaponry, and there has existed a kind of military “balance of terror” on the Korean peninsula. If the US and South Korea launch an offensive against North Korea, and a full war between the north and south breaks out, it would mean catastrophe for both sides. This would be a consequence none of them could possibly bear. Furthermore, Northeast Asia is an important region in the geopolitical strategies for China and Russia. The US and South Korea, fearing that war might provoke reactions from China and Russia, dare not hastily wage war against North Korea. Under the current situation, it is not likely that North Korea would invade South Korea, nor likely that the US and South Korea would wage war against the North. North Korea knows this, and knows clearly it could defend its national security without developing nuclear weapons, but it still stubbornly seeks an undeserved fame as a “nuclear state”, and persists in developing nuclear weapons without any justifiable reason. When North Korea goes further down the road of nuclearization, self-claims to be a “nuclear state” and tries to legalize this status, it will endanger the global nuclear non-proliferation system, challenge the security bottom line of the region and the common conscience of the mankind. This is an illegitimate and unjust move, which would cause unforeseeably dangerous consequences to itself, the parties concerned and the entire world.

As a Chinese saying goes, whoever started the trouble should end it. The key to defusing the crisis is in the hands of the US and North Korea. In the face of risks and disagreements, the two sides should restart negotiations, and embark on the road of peaceful consultations to seek settlement to their disputes and ease the crisis. For the US, that means changing its hostile policy toward North Korea by, first of all, abandoning its plan to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. For North Korea, it means showing its sincerity and action in abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Only exercising these fundamental options will put an end to the Korean Peninsula crisis and to achieve security and stability there and across Northeast Asia.