过去几十年，亚洲经济增长比世界其他多数地区快，特别是随着中国出现经济“奇迹”，全球政治经济版图结构出现有利于新兴国家的变化。

根据IMF，按购买力平价（PPP）计算，当今世界四大经济体是中国、美国、印度和日本，其中三个在亚洲。拉动经济增长的是人口。到2025年，全球三分之一人口将居住在亚洲，美国和欧洲分别只占5%、7%。美国参议院情报委员会2012年预测，到2030年，亚洲GDP、人口、军事开支、科技投入等方面的“全球实力”将超过美国与欧洲的总和。亚洲的增长缩小了东西方贫富差距，推动全球治理从“西方治理”向“东西方共同治理”转变。

就亚洲而言，区内贸易长期以来已经达到占对外贸易总额50%的基准线。区域经济一体化获得推动，而政治稳定和亚洲团结是关键。

但近年的地缘政治发展令人感到棘手。尤其美国，作为最有影响力的域外势力，美国进入全球战略收缩周期以后通过“亚太再平衡”“重返亚洲”，导致包括南海岛礁之争在内的地缘政治争端加剧，使亚洲特别是东亚出现“碎片化”。“经济增长依赖中国而安全依赖美国”这一奇特地区现象不断延续。同时，在美国大力支持下，其日本、菲律宾等盟国胆敢直接挑战中国在南海和东海的核心利益，制造地区紧张，破坏区域经济一体化。

人们能想到的第一个亚洲分裂事例，显然是南海争端的国际化、政治化。菲律宾搞出来的政治闹剧也许已经结束，但“后遗症”仍在，局势仍高度紧张。没有迹象显示美国在南海的直接介入和武力威胁有所减少。

面对这一棘手问题只有两个选择：

第一，美国坚持它的“离岸平衡”政策并加紧挑衅，而菲律宾、越南和其他国家不断突破底线。

第二，根据中国提出的“双轨思路”重回政治谈判。从目前形势看，第二个选择很难获得动力。

另一个事例是地区战略平衡被破坏，危险的军备竞赛已经开始。这方面有两件事值得一提：首先是美国在东亚靠近中国领土的地方完成了反导系统部署，包括美韩最近决定在韩国领土部署配有先进“X波段雷达”的“萨德”，它给中国的核威慑能力造成威胁，从而打破了微妙且重要的地区战略平衡。其次是由于日美军事同盟更加紧密，日本通过军事化和摆脱《和平宪法》与《雅尔塔协议》的束缚，寻求“正常大国”地位，导致中韩等邻近国家的忧虑。

维持亚洲持续增长的团结目前正面临“碎片化”（新加坡学者郑永年称之为“亚洲的中东化”）考验和威胁。如果不加控制，亚洲的经济增长与凝聚力将受到损害，这对亚洲和世界来说无疑是坏消息。

如果不加控制，亚洲的经济增长与凝聚力将受到损害，这对亚洲和世界来说无疑是坏消息。

当然，亚洲积极的发展永远多过消极。只要亚洲国家从自身根本利益出发，克服种种障碍，“碎片化”终会消失。眼下，各国至少应在以下领域立即采取行动：

第一，加快地区一体化，精简各类自贸协定，展开亚太经济组织（APEC）范围内的自贸协定谈判，为促进亚洲和世界经济持续增长创造更好的贸易投资环境。

第二，努力维护地区战略平衡，防止军备竞赛升级。美国在东亚中国周边部署的反导系统无疑削弱了地区战略平衡。明智的做法是美国及其盟国重新考虑并取消反导系统的部署，因为那最终也会损害它们的安全。必须认真尽快开展政治对话，让有关各国走出地缘政治迷局。

第三，就南海、朝核和地区反恐问题展开外交对话与谈判。如前所述，解决南海问题的最好方法肯定是当事国之间的“双轨”谈判与对话。这是解决争议、避免冲突的唯一可行方法。在朝鲜半岛核问题上，尽快重启政治谈判极为重要，因为已经不起拖延。在反恐问题上，地区合作对各方都有利，它还可以增加目前极度缺乏的战略互信。

亚洲以文化多样著称，自古以来各国就有自己的核心价值观。最近几十年，中国的和平与飞速发展为地区经济增长和一体化作出巨大贡献。我们必须用历史眼光看待今天发生的事情。“碎片化”是暂时的，亚洲的团结与共同发展将永远是这一地区的鲜明标志。

The last few decades have witnessed the economy in Asia growing at a faster pace than in most regions in the world, especially with China's economic “miracle”, making it possible for the global political and economic landscape to shift tectonically in favor of emerging nations.

According to the IMF, based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the biggest four economies in the world today are China, the US, India and Japan. Three are in Asia. What drives economic growth is population. By 2025, three-quarters of the world's population will live in Asia, while the US and Europe will account for only 5% and 7% respectively. In 2012, the US Senate Intelligence Committee forecast that by 2030 Asia will surpass the US and Europe combined in terms of “global strength” indexed in GDP, population, military expenditure and technological input. The growth in Asia has contributed to narrowing the gap in wealth between East and West, which in turn has moved global governance from “West domination” to “sharing of power between East and West”.

As far as Asia is concerned, intra-regional trade has long reached the benchmark of 50% of its total external trade, and regional economic integration has gained traction for which political stability and Asian unity is the key.

However, troublesome geopolitical developments have emerged in recent years. Notably the US, as the most influential external power, has engaged in its “Pivot to Asia” with “Asia-Pacific rebalancing” while entering periodic strategic retrenchment worldwide. As a result, geopolitical tussles including disputes on islands and reefs in the South China Sea have intensified, creating “fragmentation” of Asia and East Asia in particular. The strange regional phenomenon of assuming that “economic growth relies on China while security depends on the US” continues. Moreover, with strong American support, its allies like Japan and the Philippines have been emboldened enough to directly challenge the core interests of China in the South China Sea and East China Sea, driving up the tension in the region and disrupting regional economic integration.

The first case that comes to mind about Asia fragmentation is obviously the internationalization and politicization of South China Sea disputes. The political farce staged by the Philippines might be over, but its “hangover” remains and tensions are still high. American direct involvement and saber-rattling in the South China Sea has shown no signs of receding.

There are only two options on this tricky issue:

1. Confrontational with continued “off-shore balance” by the US as the Philippines, Vietnam and others will persist in pushing the envelope.

2. A return to political negotiation, adopting the “dual track” approach as suggested by China. In view of the current circumstances, the second option will not easily gain momentum.

Another case is regional strategic balance, which is now being undermined and a dangerous arms race is under way. In this connection, there are two things worth mentioning: First, the US is completing its deployment of missile defense systems (MDS) close to Chinese territory in East Asia, including the most recent decision by the US and ROK to deploy the THAAD system with advanced X-band radar on ROK soil, which poses a threat to China's nuclear deterrence capability, thus breaking the delicate and important regional strategic balance. Second, with a closer Japan-US military alliance, Japan is pursuing “normal big-power” status through militarization and loosening the constraints of its Peace Constitution and Yalta arrangements, which worries its neighbors including China and the ROK.

Asian unity sustaining its continuous growth is now being tested and threatened by “fragmentation” (described by Zheng Yongnian of Singapore as “Mid-Easternization of Asia”). If unchecked, Asia's economic growth and cohesion could be compromised which is undoubtedly bad news to Asia and to the world at large.

If unchecked, Asia's economic growth and cohesion could be compromised which is undoubtedly bad news to Asia and to the world at large.

Needless to say, positive developments in Asia always outweigh negative ones. As long as Asian nations proceed from their fundamental interests and overcome various obstacles, the “fragmentation” will fade away eventually. At present, they should focus on the following areas inter alia for immediate action:

1. To speed up regional integration by streamlining all sorts of FTAs and start negotiation on an APEC-wide FTA with a view to creating a better environment for trade and investment for the benefit of promoting sustained economic growth both in Asia and the world.

2. To make strenuous efforts to maintain regional strategic balance and prevent further arms race. American deployment of missile-defense systems surrounding China in East Asia no doubt undercuts strategic balance in the region. It would be wise for the US and its allies to reconsider and rescind that deployment, because in the end it will also hurt their security. Political dialogue needs to begin for real and with urgency to walk countries concerned through the zigzags of geo-political landscape.

3. To start diplomatic dialogue and negotiation on the issues of the South China Sea, the nuclear problem of the Korean Peninsula and regional counter-terrorism. As I put it above, the best approach to the South China Sea is certainly the “dual track” negotiation and dialogue between and among parties. This is the only viable way to settle the disputes and avoid possible confrontation. On the Peninsular nuclear issue, it is of utmost importance to restart political negotiation as soon as possible. It cannot afford further delay. On counterterrorism, regional cooperation will benefit all parties and increase strategic trust that is sorely lacking.

Asia is famous for its multiple civilizations and their core value systems that have guided Asian nations since ancient times. Recent decades have seen China making great contributions to regional economic growth and unity with its peaceful and rapid development. We need to take a historic view of what is happening today. “Fragmentation” is something that is temporary while Asian unity and common development will always be the hallmark of this great region.