Since October, United States military commanders have intensified their activities in the South China Sea along with their military deployments in the surrounding areas. They have sent naval vessels, military aircraft, and even aircraft carriers to intrude into China's territorial waters, conduct reconnaissance to gather information about China in the name of “free navigation and flying” as defined by US version of international law. In the face of strong Chinese opposition, they tend to take a defiant approach. They have declared on a number of occasions that they have no intention to stop such military activities there, and that they would continue their regular “free navigation and flying” military activities. What is more, they are trying their best to persuade other Asian countries to join them in such hegemonic activities in a vain attempt to build an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) so as to hold China down. The causes behind these unwise and dangerous plans and actions come from their strong desire not to lose the US' world military dominance, and are based on the following four strategic misjudgments by US military commanders.
Misjudgment One: believing that the US military can continue to control the whole world by its superior military force. In the new era when peace and development are the main theme, especially when a good number of new emerging countries are rising up, the role of the military in international relations is gradually declining. Strong military powers can no longer conquer and annex weak small sovereign countries with their superior military force, or expand their spheres of influence. In recent years, the US fought two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and its superior military overthrew the legitimate governments there. But the US has lost the two wars. Political balance in the two countries broke up and the situation has been unstable with state affairs run with enormous difficulties and challenges, resulting in the growth of terrorist groups and the increase of terrorist activities. As the US military cannot play a constructive role in managing and controlling these new problems in the two small countries, it would be a mission impossible for the US military commanders to control the whole world.
Misjudgment Two: believing that the continued regular “free navigation and flying” activities anywhere in the world by US naval vessels and military aircrafts can help the US have a louder say and more power in negotiating international regulations and laws concerning waters and airspace in the world. The US military commanders are in a habit of putting US domestic laws above international law. Their “free navigation and flying” activities are in fact conducted in accordance with the US version or interpretation of international law, violating international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Therefore, the US military “free navigation and flying” activities can in no way help the US impose its own will on the world when negotiating international regulations and law on waters and airspace, but expose the US hegemonic thinking with superior military force to harm the legitimate rights and interests of other sovereign countries.
Misjudgment Three: believing that the US military could control Asia, especially the South China Se,a by winning over the 10 countries of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It has become more and more evident that the 10 ASEAN countries are not of one heart and one mind with the US, and they hate to see possible military conflicts between China and the US near their doors. They are working with China to safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea and resolve existing disputes and differences through dialogue and negotiation. They are not willing to serve as pawns of the US military hegemony in Asia. Even the Philippines, the US military ally, is facing increasing domestic pressure for its support for the US military activities. The Philippine government will have to confront quite a few challenges for its permission for the US military to use its five military bases. So, it is already a lost game for the US military to control the South China Sea or all of Asia by relying on 10 ASEAN countries.
Misjudgment Four: believing that the US could realize the goal of holding China down by deploying the most advanced weapons and large numbers of troops in Asia in collaboration with its military allies. This belief of the US military commanders is built on their assumption that managed tension in China's neighborhood could wear out China. But recent new developments in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) go against the assessments of US military commanders. The more troops and military equipment are deployed in these two countries, the more financial burden the two countries have to bear. The more tension is created by the US military in Asia, the more opposition against the US has arisen. In the meantime, China has taken meaningful actions, such as cutting down the number of troops by 300,000, and reducing the range of defense budget increase by 2.5 percent, to demonstrate to the whole world that it is firmly taking the road of peaceful development and that it has no intention to engage in competition of military equipment with the US. China is gaining more and more support in Asia and the world. The US will have to reap bitter fruits if it continues to try to hold China down by military means.
