2024年美国大选已正式开始，两党之间的法律战、认知战、舆论战异常激烈，特朗普的参选资格、经济通胀、非法移民、乌克兰危机、巴以冲突等问题成为政治辩论和媒体报道的焦点，中国议题似乎比较靠后。

中美元首在旧金山的会晤，对中美关系止跌企稳发挥关键作用，对美国大选中的涉华辩论也有一定的降温作用。在拜登政府看来，稳定中美关系有助于其缓解美国通胀压力、控制芬太尼危害、推动能源转型、集中精力应对海外冲突，但对华政策能否成为拜登竞选连任的“加分项”并不确定。

由于美国将中国视为战略竞争对手并遏制打压的政策未发生根本变化，推动更强硬的对华政策在美国国内有政治基础。随着大选逐步升温，共和党、国会、州政府等美国国内因素对中美关系的影响可能逐步凸显。

首先，拜登政府在选举压力下可能对华采取新的压制措施。几十年来共和党就把自己塑造成国家安全领域的鹰派，靠攻击民主党“对外软弱”争取选民支持。2020年大选和2022年中期选举前后，共和党均靠极端的反华主张哗众取宠，试图打击民主党的选情。这一招效果并不好，但共和党政客乐此不疲。此次大选，特朗普、德桑蒂斯等共和党总统参选人在涉华辩论中展现“超强硬”立场。二人均不满拜登在经济和科技领域与中国“精准脱钩”的做法，声称为了实现美国“经济独立”，要让两国经济“全面脱钩”，若当选总统将取消对中国的永久正常贸易关系（PNTR）。由于两党均将对华“脱钩”“去风险”视为政治正确和赢得竞争的“政绩”，共和党对拜登经济政策的批评，可能促使拜登政府在贸易、投资、科技等领域出台新的保护主义措施，这将通过对中国实施更严厉的贸易限制、投资限制和出口管制表现出来。

其次，“亲台反华”的政治喧嚣可能推动国会通过新的反华法案。美国国会近年来通过的涉及港台疆藏的法律对中美关系造成长期损害。第118届国会一开张，重新控制众议院的共和党议员就推出一系列反华法案，仅涉台方向就有“台湾冲突吓阻法案”“保护台湾法案”“台湾外交审视法案”等。这些法案尚未成法，但相关内容均严重违反一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定，中国政府强烈反对。目前两党在预算和拨款问题上斗争激烈，但在向台湾提供军事支持上高度一致。台湾地区选举后，美国行政部门和国会都会对新当选的政治人物表示支持。自称“台独工作者”的赖清德当选台湾地区领导人，将继续大搞“去中国化”，推行“渐进式台独”，两岸关系不仅难以改善，还可能继续恶化。在美国国内“亲台反华”“以台制华”政治氛围下，新的“挺台”法案有可能获得国会2/3多数议员的支持，并促使拜登予以签署。一旦中美因台湾问题而对抗的烈度上升，拜登寻求与中国建立“护栏”、稳定中美关系的努力将严重受挫。

再次，共和党主政的“红州”可能通过新的反华举措。受美国政府近年来反华动员的影响，中国作为美国经济、安全和生活方式的“最大威胁”被别有用心地植入到许多美国民众心中。佛罗里达、得克萨斯、蒙大拿等“红州”先后提出或通过一系列反华立法，如在相关州限制中国人购买房地产、限制或禁止使用TikTok、限制公立学校与中国等“受关注国家”建立关系等。一些“红州”成为美国的反华先锋，离不开共和党的选举策略。相反，包括加利福尼亚在内的一些“蓝州”则积极开展与中国在经贸、人文、应对气候变化等领域的务实合作。在大选年，“红州”的共和党政客为了与“蓝州”的民主党人竞争，可能推出新的限制中美合作的举措“出风头”，特别是在中美人文交流领域。

最后，美国大选结果将给中美关系带来新的风险挑战。从目前的选举态势看，前总统特朗普和现任总统拜登这对“老冤家”再度对垒的可能性较高。不过，不管特朗普是否会获得共和党总统候选人提名，共和党与拜登及民主党在治国理念、内外政策，包括对华政策上都有较大差异。中国对美国大选不持立场，更不会干预美国选举，但大选带来的不确定性对中美关系就是风险。如果共和党人在2025年入主白宫，中国需要提前做好应对新挑战的准备。

As the United States braces for general election this year, the Democratic and Republican parties are engaging in extraordinarily fierce legal and cognitive battles. Disputes over Donald Trump's candidacy, inflation, illegal immigration, the Ukraine crisis and the Palestine-Israel conflict dominate political debates and media coverage, while China topics seem to have taken a backseat.

The meeting in San Francisco between Chinese and American leaders has played a critical role in stopping the free fall of relations and has begun to stabilize bilateral ties — more or less contributing to a cooling-down of China-related debates on the political campaign trail. For the Biden administration, stabilizing relations with China is conducive to its attempts to ease inflation at home, control the fentanyl crisis, promote an energy transition and concentrate on coping with overseas conflicts, but it remains to be seen whether China policy will become a bonus point for Joe Biden's bid for reelection to the White House.

Since there has been no fundamental change in the U.S. policy that takes China as a strategic competitor and resorts to containment and suppression, there is a political foundation for pushing tougher China policies in the United States. As the campaigns heat up, the influence of such domestic factors as Republican radicalism, congressional chaos and state government maneuvers may gradually present themselves.

First, the Biden administration, under electoral pressure, may adopt new measures to suppress China. For decades, the Republican Party has built a hawkish image for itself when it comes to national security. It seeks voter support by attacking the Democrats for their “weak” foreign policy. Before and after the general elections in 2020 and the midterm elections of 2022, the Republicans resorted to extreme anti-China rhetoric to woo voters, striving to suppress Democratic momentum. Although it didn't work well, Republican politicians simply couldn't stop. This time around, such Republican presidential candidates as Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have taken “ultra-tough” stances on China. Both are dissatisfied with Biden's practice of “precision decoupling” from China in the fields of economy and technology and claimed that to achieve U.S. economic independence, the two economies must be decoupled completely. These Republicans would revoke the permanent normal trade relations with China. Since both parties consider decoupling and “de-risking” to be useful tools in their political competition, Republican criticism of Biden's economic policies may press the latter to come up with new protectionist moves in trade, investment, science and technology, which may take the form of harsher restrictions on trade and investment, together with new export controls.

Second, a pro-Taiwan and anti-China political clamor may induce Congress to pass new anti-China measures. Legislation involving Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region that has been passed by the U.S. Congress in the past few years have done lasting damage to China-U.S. relations.Immediately after the start of the 118th Congress, Republican lawmakers, who had just regained control of the House of Representatives, introduced a series of anti-China bills — including the Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act and the PROTECT Taiwan Act. Though such bills have yet to become law, their contents seriously violate the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques. And they have drawn strong opposition from the Chinese government. America's two parties are quarreling fiercely over such matters as budgets and appropriations, but they are closely aligned on providing military assistance to Taiwan.After Taiwan's elections, both the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government show support for the newly elected politicians. Lai Ching-te, who calls himself a “worker for Taiwan independence,” was elected and will go all out to push forward a “de-sinicization” agenda and promote “incremental independence.” Relations with Beijing will not only be difficult to improve but may continue to deteriorate. With its pro-Taiwan, anti-China mindset, the domestic political atmosphere in the U.S. may lead Congress to pass the Taiwan bills by margins that will force Biden to sign them. If a China-U.S. confrontation over Taiwan escalates, Biden's endeavor to install guardrails for stable bilateral ties may be frustrated.

Third, Republican-led “red” states may pass new anti-China measures. As a result of the U.S. government's anti-China mobilization over the past few years, images of China as the “biggest threat” to the U.S. economy, security and way of life have been implanted into the minds of ordinary Americans. Such Republican-leaning states as Florida, Texas and Montana have passed a series of anti-China laws, including some restricting real estate purchases by Chinese nationals, restricting or prohibiting the use of TikTok and preventing public schools from establishing ties with “countries of concern” — meaning China. The formation of red states into an anti-China vanguard is part of the Republican Party's electoral strategy.On the other hand, “blue” states — California, for instance — are proactively engaged in pragmatic cooperation with China in such fields as economy, trade, people-to-people exchanges and climate change. In a year of general elections, red-state Republicans may propose sensational new measures to limit China-U.S. cooperation as a way of competing with the blue-state Democrats, especially in people-to-people exchanges.

Finally, the outcome of U.S. general election will bring new challenges to China-U.S. relations. Judging from the current state of affairs, there is a chance that former president Trump and President Biden could face off again in the elections. However, regardless whether Trump wins the Republican nomination, the Republican Party differs greatly from Biden and the Democratic Party when it comes to governing philosophy, including domestic matters and foreign policy involving China.China doesn't take sides on U.S. elections, nor would it intervene in them in any way, but the uncertainty that comes with such elections themselves are risks to China-U.S. relations. If a Republican takes over the White House in 2025, China needs to be ready for fresh challenges.