2022年底2023年初，越南领导人阮富仲和菲律宾新任总统小马科斯先后访华，形成一个促进中邻关系，稳定南海局面的外交活动小高潮。越南和菲律宾是南海问题的关键国家。越南在2021年越共十三大后保持了领导人的连续性，近年来中越外交互动频繁，总体稳定了两国关系和南海问题。

而小马科斯的前任杜特尔特在其任期内与中国一起维护了南海相对稳定的大局，世人更关注同时与中美都有特殊渊源的小马科斯政府南海政策是否生变。

小马科斯是2023年第一个到访的外国元首，从双方1月5日发布的联合声明来看，稳定南海局势仍是大局。联合声明第十三条称，两国元首就南海局势深入坦诚交换意见，强调南海争议不是双边关系的全部，同意妥善管控分歧。

双方重申维护及促进地区和平稳定、南海航行和飞越自由的重要性，同意在《南海各方行为宣言》以及《联合国宪章》和1982年《联合国海洋法公约》基础上，以和平方式处理争议。

这意味着，中菲在2023年初即表达了继续保持南海稳定局面的战略意志和决心，有利于南海稳定与亚太和局。中菲和中越关系是维护南海大局稳定的关键，南海稳定又攸关亚太稳定。

自2010年美国奥巴马政府实质性介入南海问题以来，各方围绕南海问题的战略博弈复杂化、激烈化，不时爆发摩擦和危机，这在2013年时任菲律宾总统阿基诺三世提出披着法律外衣的政治闹剧——南海仲裁案达到高点。但是在杜特尔特总统2016-2022年任职期间，与中国一起扭转了南海形势，共同塑造了一个长达六年、宝贵的南海稳定局面。

尤其是在2020-2022年的三年疫情期间，尽管遭遇美国印太战略拉紧同盟网络，美日印澳四边安全对话和美英澳同盟，乃至“印太海域态势感知伙伴关系”的鼓噪擂动，南海并未掀起大风大浪。这为中国应对美国围堵遏制，妥善应对其他周边热点问题，推进亚太和平发展奠定了基础。由此来看，中菲和中越在南海问题上的相对稳态是稳定南海局面，避免中美在南海和东南亚战略博弈升级的关键一环。

这里就有一个看似“反常”的现象，即在中美战略关系恶化、东南亚成为中美战略博弈要地，南海问题成为美国搅局抓手的背景下，南海局势反而呈现较长时间的“稳态”。

从战略环境看，中国面对的印太环境整体趋于恶化。日韩跟定美国的战略走向非常清晰，欧洲主要大国与美国形成战略协同，印度趁火打劫在经济和安全上对华战略倾向激进，中亚在遭遇哈萨克斯坦政局变动和俄乌冲突后，一些国家进入对华战略调整期。

而东南亚国家反而发出“东盟及其成员不选边站，同时与中美搞好关系”的声音。中国与东盟以第一大贸易伙伴的身份，超过20亿人口的体量，形成一个中国-东盟和平发展区，并共同推进了世界上最大的自贸区RCEP的落地生效。

从南海问题本身看，虽然南海争端各方都在做维权保障等方面的常规动作，但领导人保持战略清醒、战略克制和战略定力，不冲突、不对抗，显示了多年来对南海局势进行战略管理的经验和技巧。在这方面，杜特尔特是小马科斯的榜样。

正如南海潮起潮落，南海局势也是在紧张与稳定之间波动性变化。2023年才刚刚开始，今后南海局势能否继续维持稳态，不逆转，不失航，仍需复杂而精妙复杂的战略管理。

首先，这需要中菲、中越等做好双边的沟通协调，不管潮起潮落，坚定落实双方联合声明，积极在南海创造合作点。

其次，尽快完成中国与东盟的“南海行为准则”（COC）谈判，并将COC作为未来亚太和平文化、安全秩序的基石。

第三，争取在中美缓和，并降低菲律宾等国外部战略压力的态势下，在东盟架构之下推进中-美-东盟的包容性地区秩序构建。

总之，中菲稳则有利于南海稳，南海稳则有利于亚太和局。

In late 2022 and early 2023, Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited China, creating modest high points in diplomacy as they promoted neighborly relations and stability in the South China Sea. Vietnam and the Philippines are among the key states in the South China Sea dispute. The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2021 signified continuity of leadership, and there have been frequent diplomatic interactions between China and Vietnam in recent years. Those have contributedd to stable relations an a de-escalation of tensions over disputed waters.

Since the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, managed maritime tensions throughout his tenure, the question raised now is whether there will be any change in South China Sea policy under the administration of Marcos, who has relationships with both China and the United States.

Marcos is the first foreign head of state to visit China in 2023. In the joint statement released by China and the Philippines on Jan. 5, upholding peace and stability in the South China Sea remains pivotal in the two sides' maritime policies. Article 13 of the joint statement said the two leaders had an in-depth and candid exchange of views on the situation in the South China Sea. They emphasized that maritime issues do not represent the sum-total of relations between the two states and agreed to appropriately manage differences through peaceful means.

Both sides reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the region and the freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, and they reached consensus on the peaceful resolution of disputes on the basis of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), the United Nations Charter and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

This means that China and the Philippines have expressed their strategic intent and determination to maintain stability in the South China Sea, which is conducive to peace in Asia-Pacific region more broadly. There is an intimate link between a peaceful South China Sea and a stable Asia-Pacific, where China's relationship with the Philippines and Vietnam is crucial. In 2010, the direct intervention of the U.S. administration with respect to the South China Sea issue escalated tensions and complicated matter, with occasional outbreaks of friction and crisis.

The dispute boiled over in 2013 when the Philippines, under the administration of former President Corazon Aquino, filed a South China Sea Arbitration suit, a political farce staged under a legal pretext. But changing tides in the 2016-22 period can be seen between China and the Philippines, as Duterte committed himself to shaping valuable stability.

During the three-year pandemic period of 2020-22, there was no significant change in the situation, despite the tightening alliance network under America's Indo-Pacific strategy, including the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad), the AUKUS alliance and the “Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness.” This laid the foundation for China to deal with U.S. containment efforts, play a constructive role in regional hotspot issues and promote peaceful development in the Asia-Pacific. Given this, the relatively stable China-Philippines and China-Vietnam relationships regarding the maritime dispute have been vital in stabilizing the situation and avoiding an escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia.

There is a seemingly “anomalous” phenomenon, however. Why did the situation in the South China Sea remain stable for a long period of time in the context of the deterioration of the strategic relationship between China and the U.S., the increasing significance of Southeast Asia in the China-U.S. strategic game and the eagerness of the U.S. to stir up trouble in the South China Sea?

From a strategic perspective, China faces a generally deteriorating Indo-Pacific environment. Both Japan and South Korea steadily follow the U.S. strategy lead. Strategic coordination has developed between the U.S. and the major European powers. India has taken advantage of China's dilemma and has shown an aggressive attitude toward China in its economic and security strategy. Some central Asian states are adjusting their strategy toward China in light of political changes in Kazakhstan and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

At the same time, ASEAN states interpret neutrality as not taking a side and keeping good relations with both China and the U.S. ASEAN states and China, as heavy trading partners, have formed a zone of peace and development with an aggregate population as big as 2 billion, and jointly promoted the RCEP, the world's largest FTA, to come into effect.

Regarding the South China Sea dispute, although all claimant states conduct routine operations in safeguarding rights, all leaders maintain strategic clarity, strategic restraint and strategic determination, which results in a “non-conflict, non-confrontation” situation in regional relations. This demonstrates the experience and tactics of all sides in the strategic management of the situation in the South China Sea. In this aspect, Duterte can be seen as model for Marcos.

Like waves in the South China Sea, the situation fluctuates. Disputes surface from time to time. But the journey of 2023 has just begun. Tactics are still required to diffuse disputes and maintain stability.

First, it's important to maintain good bilateral communication and coordination between China and the Philippines, and between China and Vietnam. Regardless of the situation, the joint statements should be implemented firmly with a steady dose of cooperation in the South China Sea.

Second, China and ASEAN should come to a speedy conclusion in negotiations on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) and make it a cornerstone of peace and security in the Asia-Pacific.

Third, an inclusive China-U.S.-ASEAN regional order should be created under the regional architecture of ASEAN, with de-escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. and a reduction of foreign pressure on states like the Philippines.

All in all, there is an intimate linkage between a peaceful South China Sea and a stable Asia-Pacific region. Healthy China-Philippines relations are crucial in maintaining stability.