美国在台协会开幕式（图片来源：美国在台协会）

据近日美国多家媒体报道，美国海军计划以所谓“航行自由”行动为名，派遣其太平洋舰队于11月在台湾海峡和南海海域开展一系列“展示武力”的军事演习，以“警告中国并展示美国有能力对抗其军事行动”。在美国将中国作为全面战略竞争对手、中美贸易争端日益加剧的大背景下，在美国海军刚刚在南海执行所谓“航行自由”行动并进入我南沙部分岛礁12海里以内海域以及台湾即将进行地方选举之际，美国军方释放出这样的消息，无疑对当前中美关系和台海局势的稳定产生负面影响，台海发生危机的概率陡增。

美国系列“挺台”举动背后蕴深意

特朗普执政以来，美国逐步调整其对台政策，在口头宣称遵守“一个中国”政策的同时，重视美台关系，意欲提升台湾在遏制中国大陆崛起中的“棋子”价值。首先，特朗普执政后的首份《国家安全战略》报告不仅将中国列入其“主要战略竞争对手”，同时也把台湾纳入“印太战略”，拉拢台湾对抗中国的意图明显。其次，连续出台了多个涉台法案，为扩大美台官方和军事交流立法铺路。再次，不顾中国的强烈反对，批准总额约为3.3亿美元的对台军售案，增加两岸不稳定因素。此外，针对萨尔瓦多等三个中美洲国家与台湾“断交”，与中国建交，指责中国“破坏现状”，并召回美驻三国大使，威胁采取“报复”行动等。这一系列所谓“挺台”举动条条呈现出美国旨在遏制中国发展的战略意图。

台地方选举再添变数，台海局势火上浇油

11月底，台湾将举行地方选举，目前各方力量竞争激烈。此次选举被视为2020年台湾领导人选举的“风向标”，也关系到国民党能否重新赢回台湾民众的信任。在美国看来，民进党继续执政，更有利于美国控制台湾配合其遏制中国的政策，以便在两岸关系中捞取战略利益。因此，在这个敏感时刻，美国释放在台湾海峡和南海军事演习的消息，如实施，一方面可兑现其对盟国和台湾的安全承诺，同时达到所谓的“航行自由”行动目的，另一方面，可对中国大陆“秀肌肉”，展现其遏制中国的决心。对民进党而言，如果美国在台湾海峡举行军演，中国大陆基于维护国家主权和领土完整的核心利益，势必会予以回应和反制，台海局势再度紧张或不可避免。而民进党则会依据其以往“套路”，肆意渲染炒作“中国大陆威胁台湾”，操纵民意，以期赢取选举。

美国对台政策或又将“口惠而实不至”

美国对台政策服务于对华战略和目标。回顾历史不难看出，美国的“挺台”政策有“口惠而实不至”的先例。里根总统在竞选期间批评卡特政府与台湾“断交”，并声称当选后将支持重建与台湾的“官方关系”，甚至在当选后邀请台湾代表团参加其就职典礼。但执政后，基于美国的利益诉求，改变了其竞选时的承诺，不但没有与台湾重建“官方关系”，甚至还签署了限制美对台军售的《九一八公报》。纵观特朗普政府，虽然通过了系列涉台法案，但多以不具强制执行力的“国会意见”为主，且目前为止并未有实施的迹象。相反，特朗普当选之初即质疑美国从保护台湾中可以获得什么？因此，美国的诸多所谓“挺台”政策，不过是对华政策的一个手段。在当前形势下，虽然美国利用台湾问题遏制中国的意图增强，但随着中国实力的增长，美国利用台湾问题遏制中国的能力逐步减少。作为“棋子”的台湾，在中美较量中势必会失去自主权和话语权，更不用妄谈台湾所谓的“利益”。

保持足够定力，提升掌控台海局势的能力

“树欲静而风不止”。面对当前中美关系由贸易争端向全面战略博弈转变和形势严峻的两岸关系，中国应保持足够定力和清醒认识。一方面，美国将中国作为“主要战略竞争对手”和利用台湾遏制中国发展的策略不会变，将会继续以各种方式“支持”台湾，挑战“一个中国”原则，谋求其战略利益。另一方面，台湾民进党当局的“台独”政策不会变，将会继续在岛内实行“台独”分裂活动，谋求长期执政的政治利益。因此，未来无论是面对美国的对台政策调整和“挺台”动作挑衅，还是面对台湾岛内执政当局的两岸政策变化和“台独”分裂活动，中国都应遵循以下原则来应对。首先，坚守体现“一个中国”原则的“九二共识”的底线。“一个中国”原则是中国处理中美关系和两岸关系的基本原则，是两岸和平发展的基石。中国有捍卫“一个中国”原则的决心和能力。面对任何违反“一个中国”原则的行为和分裂活动的挑衅，中国都应坚守底线，表明立场，及时回击。其次，切实履行好各项对台政策，促进两岸经济社会融合发展。再次，提升中国的综合实力，增大中国大陆对台湾的向心力，提升掌控台海局势的能力。最后，对美国的涉台行动和台湾当局的分裂活动应及时跟踪、准确研判，早做应对预案。

American Institute in Taiwan Opening Ceremony (Picture Credit: American Institute in Taiwan)

According to multiple American media reports, the US Navy is planning to dispatch its 7th Fleet to conduct a series of military drills at the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea in the name of "freedom of navigation" in a show of force to "warn China and demonstrate that the US is capable of confronting their military actions". As the US takes China as a strategic competitor, China-US trade disputes intensify and Taiwan prepares for local elections, such a message from the US military will undoubtedly have a negative impact on China-US relations and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and the probability of a new crisis over Taiwan has suddenly increased dramatically.

What's behind the US' pro-Taiwan stunts?

Since Donald Trump assumed the US presidency, the US has gradually adjusted its Taiwan policy. While stating its commitment to the "one China" policy, it has paid greater attention to relations with Taiwan, intending to increase Taiwan's value as a pawn in containing the rise of Beijing. First, the first "National Security Strategy" of the Trump administration not only defines China as a "major strategic competitor", but also incorporates Taiwan into its "Indo-Pacific strategy", showing an obvious intention to woo Taiwan and confront China. Second, it has passed multiple Taiwan-related laws, paving the way for expanding official and military exchanges with Taiwan. Third, in disregard of the mainland's strong opposition, it approved a $330 million arms sales package for Taiwan, increasing factors of instability across the Taiwan Straits. Besides, it blamed the mainland for El Salvatore and two other Central American nations' switch of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan, accusing the latter of "sabotaging the status quo", recalled ambassadors to the three countries, and threatened to take "retaliatory" actions. Such pro-Taiwan moves indicate the US' strategic purpose to contain China's development.

Local elections in Taiwan see deterioration in cross-Straits relations

Taiwan is to hold local elections at the end of November, for which various factions are competing fiercely. The elections are considered the "wind vane" for the island's 2020 presidential election; they may also determine whether the Kuomintang can win back voter confidence. From the US perspective, it will be more conducive to its control over Taiwan and ensuring the latter cooperates with it in containing China if the Democratic Progressive Party continues to rule Taiwan. That way the US can continue profiting from the cross-Straits standoff. Therefore, at such a sensitive juncture, the US releases conducts military exercises near the Taiwan Straits and in the South China Sea. Once that is put into practice, it will on one hand honor US security commitments to its allies and Taiwan, while carrying out "freedom of navigation" operations; on the other hand, it can show its muscles to the mainland, demonstrating its capability to contain the latter. If the US conducts drills in the Taiwan Straits, the mainland will inevitably respond and based on its core interest in preserving its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and tensions may be inevitable between the two sides of the Straits. The DPP will, like it did before, take advantage of such tensions and spread fears of a "mainland threat" and manipulate public opinion so as to win the elections.

Trump's Taiwan rhetoric may be just lip service

US Taiwan policy serves its China policy. There have been times when "pro-Taiwan" US policies ended up being just empty talk. On the campaign trail, Ronald Regan had criticized the Carter administration for cutting ties with Taiwan, and promised to support restoring "official relations" with Taiwan, even invited a Taiwan delegation to his inauguration. After assuming office, however, based on US national interests, Regan not only didn't rebuild "official relations" with Taiwan, but even signed the September 18 Communiqué that restricted arms sales to Taiwan. Although the Trump administration has passed a series of Taiwan-related acts, most of them were "Congress opinions" that are essentially not legally binding, and so far there is no sign they will be implemented. On the contrary, soon after getting elected, Trump questioned what the US could get from protecting Taiwan. The various so-called "pro-Taiwan" US policies, therefore, are just tools for its China policies. Under present circumstances, though the US has a stronger intention to contain China with Taiwan, it is increasingly incapable of doing it as China's might grows. Taiwan as a pawn will inevitably lose autonomy and say in China-US competition."

Stay poised and consolidate control over the Taiwan issue

"The tree may crave calm, but the wind will not subside." Facing the reality that China-US relations are turning from trade disputes to comprehensive strategic competition and deteriorating relations across the Taiwan Straits, China must show composure and maintain a cool head. On one hand, the US strategy of taking China as a "major strategic competitor" and using Taiwan to contain China's development will not change, and the US will continue to "support" Taiwan in various manners, challenge the One China principle, and pursue its own strategic interests. On the other hand, the DPP in Taiwan will not change its independence-oriented policies, will continue to engage in activities targeted at splitting Taiwan from China, and strive to sustain its rule. Therefore, in the face of changes in US Taiwan policy and "pro-Taiwan" provocations, or changes in Taiwan authorities' mainland policies and independence-oriented moves, the mainland should adhere to the following principles. First, hold fast to the "1992 consensus" as a bottom line that embodies the One China principle, a cornerstone of peace and development across the Straits. In the face of any actions in violation of the One China principle and any separatist provocations, China should secure the bottom line, clarify its position, and fight back in a timely manner. Second, make sure all policies tailored for Taiwan are implemented well, and promote integrated economic and social development across the Straits. Third, raise the country's comprehensive strength, increase the mainland's appeal to Taiwan, upgrade its own capabilities for controlling the situation in the Straits. And last, closely monitor the US' Taiwan-related actions and the Taiwan authorities' separatist activities, make informed judgments, and prepare contingency plans as early as possible.