美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与妻子梅兰娜·特朗普，中国国家主席习近平与妻子彭丽媛，于海湖庄园内会面。（法新社）

特朗普总统即将于11月访华。这是他当政以来对中国、也是对亚洲的首次访问。迄今为止，特朗普本人、国务卿蒂勒森和其他政府高官都还没有系统阐述过本届政府的亚洲政策和对华政策，对中美关系的定位也还没有正式确定，中美双方对此次访问有所期待是理所当然的事情。

去年特朗普赢得选举后，人们的普遍感觉是给两国关系带来了不确定性。但特朗普当政九个月来，中美两国沟通的渠道一直是畅通的。习近平主席多次与特朗普通电话，强调合作是中美两国唯一正确的选择。尤其在4月上旬的海湖庄园会晤中，习近平强调，我们有一千条理由把中美关系搞好，没有一条理由把中美关系搞坏。会晤建立了四个高级别对话机制：外交安全对话、全面经济对话、执法及网络安全对话、社会和人文对话。这些对话都已经顺利举行，并取得了成果。两国外长和高官进行了互访，工作层面保持着频繁沟通。美国参联会主席邓福德访华，与中方签订了《美中两军联合参谋部对话机制框架文件》，两军关系得到进一步推动。因此可以说，特朗普当政以来的中美关系总体上保持了稳定，没有偏离两国合作共赢的大方向。

但中美关系仍然存在着不确定性，尤其是8月中旬特朗普授权贸易代表莱特斯泽对华展开“301调查”，主要涉及中美之间的技术转让、知识产权保护、商标、专利、商业机密等。这使人们对中美关系的前景又增添了一些疑惑和担忧。

对特朗普此次国事访问最大的期待，就是进一步降低中美关系的不确定性，给予中美关系一个恰当的定位。蒂勒森国务卿3月访华时对习近平主席、王毅外长和媒体都重复了中方关于新型大国关系的“三条”，说明中美双方在这个问题上是有共识的。但我们也知道，每一任美国总统，尤其是在政党更迭以后，都会有自己的新提法，不会原封不动地沿用上一任的说法。不仅是对华政策，别的政策也是这样。中美双方会给两国关系一个什么样的新定位——虽然其实质性内容不外是“不冲突不对抗，相互尊重，合作共赢”——仍然是人们最关心和期待的。

最近几年来，朝鲜半岛局势持续紧张，朝核问题是当今东北亚地区最紧迫的安全问题。特朗普当政以来高调摈弃奥巴马政府的“战略忍耐”，实行“极限施压”，试图动员国际社会对朝鲜施加最大程度的压力，迫使朝鲜放弃核计划。

特朗普政府在朝核问题上一直发出混乱的信息，总统本人的说法与国务卿、防长的表态常常不一致，可以说政出多门。国际社会对朝核问题越来越关心，中俄两国频频磋商，并务实、灵活地提出了以“双暂停”倡议、“双轨并行”思路和“分步走”路线图为基础的共同倡议，敦促各方早日重回对话协商轨道，但迄未引起特朗普政府的重视。在特朗普访华中，双方无疑将就朝鲜问题进行深入的沟通。

朝核问题的首要目标应该是对当前的状况加以有效管控。无核化是终极目标，这一点没有问题，王毅外长最近在联合国大会的一般性辩论中说得很清楚，这是中国坚定不移的立场。但朝鲜半岛不生战、不生乱同样是中方的底线。实事求是地说，无核化不是立即能够实现的，当前迫在眉睫的事情是把现状管控起来，使紧张降温，使局势减少爆炸性，增加稳定性，从而为通过外交途径和平解决朝核问题创造条件。最近美国在半岛附近聚集了诸多战略力量，只能增加紧张，而不利于管控局势。

特朗普在竞选中讲得最多的是“丢失就业岗位”， 他就职演说的主题是“买美国货，雇美国人”，中美两国的经贸关系无疑将是他访华的一个主要关切。当前中美经贸关系的状况是，一方面，两国在贸易、投资、金融方面的相互依存越来越深；另一方面，随着中国制造业越做越强，在国际产业链中的地位从下游提升到中上游，两国在经贸方面的竞争也比以前突出了。中美之间存在较大的贸易逆差，这是客观事实。中国也主张自由贸易、公平贸易，两国要共同努力来逐渐平衡贸易。百日计划的讨论已经开了一个好头，双方要相向而行，中国要在扩大市场准入方面多作努力，美国要逐步放宽对中国的高技术出口管制（美对华出口仍有2400多个品种的限制），削减投资壁垒。贸易战肯定不解决问题，其结果只能是两败俱伤。上世纪90年代，中美之间曾因知识产权问题发生三次激烈纠纷，每次都到了贸易战的边缘，每次又都化险为夷。现在中美都是WTO的成员，都要遵守该组织的规定。

前几年中美已经就《中美双边投资协定》（BIT）文本达成一致，并就负面清单进行了多次磋商。一旦BIT达成，中国100多个行业都会进一步向美企业开放投资，包括目前存在限制的汽车制造、银行、化学和能源等行业，美国企业在华获得的投资规模将显著扩大，美国通过资本项目顺差修正经常性贸易逆差的能力将大大增强。重启BIT的谈判对于平衡中美贸易具有至关重要的意义。

在双边、地区和全球层面还有许多问题都会进入中美两国领导人的视野。台湾问题事关中国核心利益，现在美国国会一些人想方设法提升美台关系，要让美台军舰互相停靠、高层官员互访，对一个中国政策造成冲击，中方不能坐视。美方在此问题上不能发出错误信息。对两国在南海的分歧如何进行管控，在阿富汗问题上如何协调政策，都会在两国元首的议事日程之中。伊朗核协议是中国深度参与的重大国际问题，特朗普最近发表讲话，不愿证实伊朗执行了核协议，还要追加制裁，中国自然要维护这一协议。

毫无疑问，此次访问是对中美关系的又一次顶层设计，将为两国关系的健康、稳定发展注入新的动力。

US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and their wives Melania Trump and Peng Liyuan at the Mar-a-Lago estate. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump will visit China this November, as part of his Asia tour since taking office. Understandably, the trip is highly anticipated, even more so because neither President Trump nor Secretary of State Rex Tillerson nor any member of the present cabinet has offered a comprehensive Asia policy.

Immediately after Trump's election victory, the course of China-US relations seemed uncertain. Nevertheless, in the first nine months of his presidency, both governments maintained smooth communications. President Xi Jinping said in his first phone conversation with President Trump that “cooperation is the only correct choice between China and the United States”. In their first face-to-face meeting in Mar-a-Lago in April, President Xi reiterated that there were a thousand reasons to make their relationship work, and not a single reason to harm it. During the Mar-a-Lago meetings, both sides agreed to set up four high level dialogue mechanisms: the diplomatic and security dialogue, the comprehensive economic dialogue, the law enforcement and cyber-security dialogue, and the social and people-to-people exchange dialogue. The inaugural sessions of the four dialogue mechanisms have yielded results. Senior officials, including the Chinese Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State, maintained close communication and cooperation. Both countries signed a framework document establishing a dialogue mechanism for their joint military staffs. On the whole, China-US relations remain stable.

But some uncertainties still loom. Most notable is the Section 301 investigation launched by US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and authorized by President Trump against China. The Section 301 investigation focuses on technology transfer and intellectual property disputes. This investigation has raised concerns about where this relationship is headed.

A major objective of Trump's visit will be to reduce uncertainty in bilateral ties. When Secretary Tillerson visited China in March, he referred to the three principles of major power relations (non-conflict, non-confrontation, and win-win cooperation) put forward by the Chinese. This indicates a consensus between the two countries on developing their relationship. Further developments will be closely watched.

Recent years have seen rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The North Korea nuclear issue presents the most pressing security threat to the Northeast Asia region. President Trump has publicly renounced the Obama administration's policy of strategic patience in favor of maximum pressure to force the DPRK to abandon its nuclear program.

The Trump administration has been sending mixed and incoherent messages on the issue. President Trump, Secretary Tillerson, and Defense Secretary Mattis expressed different positions on different occasions, indicating a lack of consensus within the cabinet. Stakeholders, including China and Russia, have held rounds of consultations. China and Russia proposed a pragmatic and flexible approach underpinned by dual-suspension, that is, suspension of military exercises between the US and South Korea in return for the suspension of North Korea's nuclear program. This approach offers a viable roadmap to build consensus, and thus enables all parties to return to the negotiating table. But the proposal has not yet been recognized by the Trump administration. The DPRK issue will be discussed during Trump's visit to China.

The ultimate goal should simply be denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In his address at the UN General Assembly, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi explicitly said that China holds firm to this position, but at the same time it will not allow war or chaos on the Korean Peninsula. To put things into perspective, denuclearization may be elusive in the immediate future, so the present focus should be on managing the situation effectively, in order to diffuse tensions and increase certainty, paving the way for peaceful solutions to the crisis. The military deployment by the US only serves to escalate tensions in the region.

The loss of American jobs featured prominently in President Trump's speeches on the campaign trail. “Buy and Hire American” was one of his maxims. Trade will be a major dimension in his upcoming visit. China-US trade is characterized by both cooperation and competition. On the one hand, the two countries are increasingly interdependent in trade, investment, and finance. On the other, as China moves up the value chain as a manufacturing powerhouse, competition between China and the US will rise. The trade deficit between the two countries is a fact. Both countries must work together in the pursuit of more balanced trade，and China's commitment to the One Hundred Day Plan embodies such an effort. Both sides must meet each other halfway. China should further open up its market, and the US should further reduce export restrictions and investment barriers against China. Trade war is not an option, as it will only harm the interests of both sides. In the 1990s, three major intellectual property disputes broke out between China and the US, each bringing the two countries closer to the brink of trade war. Fortunately, both sides rose above the challenge and settled the disputes sensibly. Since both countries are members of the WTO, WTO rules and regulations should prevail in the event of a dispute.

After rounds and rounds of consultations, the two countries reached an agreement on a Bilateral Investment Treaty, or BIT. If and when a BIT is concluded, over 100 industries in China will be open to US businesses, including automobile, banking, chemicals, and energy. When that happens, US investment in China will receive a significant boost, paring down the trade deficit and contributing to a more balanced trade relationship. Resumption of BIT negotiations is of vital importance.

There are many other issues on the minds of both leaders. One of them is the Taiwan issue. This issue concerns China's core interests, but some in the US Congress are pushing for elevated relations with Taiwan, through military port calls and visits by high-ranking officials. It has undermined the “One China” policy, and China will not sit idly by. The US should refrain from sending wrong signals on the Taiwan issue. China's involvement in the Iranian nuclear deal is a testament to its deep engagement in major international issues. President Trump's decision not to certify Iran's compliance risks derailing the deal. This move was not well received by China, which is expected to support the deal.

President Trump's upcoming visit is an important occasion to chart the course for China-US relations, and presents an opportunity to inject new impetus for a sound and stable relationship between the two countries.