中美领导人将于4月举行会晤的消息受到国际社会高度关注。事实上，特朗普执政后，中美对接工作早已陆续展开。2月10日习近平主席和特朗普的通话交谈，标志着特朗普执政后中美高层交往正式启动。随后，双方高层官员通过会面和通话等形式开始对接。

尽管如此，双边关系具体如何展开还有待观察，我们对特朗普执政带来的挑战要有清醒认识。首先是特朗普团队的对华态度和处理对华关系的方式。特朗普团队总体上在对华问题上持强硬态度，而且这种强硬态度在不同层次上覆盖了经贸、地缘政治和意识形态领域。不仅如此，特朗普执政团队新手较多，对情况不够熟悉，喜欢不按常理出牌。对华强硬态度和行为方式的变化会导致特朗普执政初期双方对接的困难，妨碍在两国外交团队间形成有效的工作模式。

其次是经贸领域的挑战。特朗普经济政策的实施将对中国经济和中美经贸关系产生广泛影响。特朗普对美国经济的刺激措施和美元加息将使美元更加强势，增大人民币贬值压力，加快资本从中国外流；其重振制造业政策将导致部分在华美资回流本土。更重要的是，特朗普政府在贸易问题上预期采取的强硬行动将加剧中美贸易摩擦，并有上升为贸易战的风险。在投资方面，特朗普也可能基于所谓“互惠”原则，要求中方扩大对美资开放，并以限制中国对美投资作为杠杆。知识产权保护问题（包括“网络商业窃密”）也可能成为特朗普在经贸方面对华施压的着力点。

最后是安全领域的挑战。特朗普政府信奉“以实力求和平”原则，决心加大国防投入，提升美国军事力量，有可能导致美国对华军事优势进一步扩大，使中国在西太平洋面临来自美国更大的军事压力。同时鉴于其执政团队中鹰派军方人士较多，有可能推动美军在南海采取更加咄咄逼人的军事行动，加剧中美在南海的对峙。如果中美之间(或中日之间)在东海、南海等地发生危机事件，美方有可能采取强硬和激进行为，增加双方军事冲突的风险。特朗普政府有可能对朝鲜采取强硬措施，也会加剧中美之间的摩擦。此外，由于特朗普政府在西太平洋对中国采取离岸制衡政策，它将鼓励日本发展军事力量，加强对华牵制，而以安倍为代表的右翼保守势力也会趁机加速提升日本军事能力，强化在西太平洋制约中国的战略态势。这不仅意味着中日关系将总体上保持冷淡和僵持状态，更意味着中日之间在海上发生危机事件的风险增加。

从以往经验看，中美互动大致上有三种模式:一是相互调适型，中美以谨慎和务实的方式开展互动，在互动过程中各有主动，相互适应，相互调整，推进合作，避免冲突，形成一种良性的工作模式。

二是冲突型，双方秉持并坚持推进一系列相互抵触的政策目标，不愿意作出必要的妥协和调整，或相信能够迫使对方作出妥协和调整。两国关系冲突不断，在缺乏进行良好沟通能力和意愿的情况下，双方的协调行为主要表现为发生冲突时的止损努力，这是一种消极的工作模式。

三是主动-被动型。强势一方主导双边关系的议程设置和交往方式，弱势一方无意愿或无能力争取平等的互动态势，而是选择在互动过程中通过博弈来推进己方的利益目标，且强势一方也能对弱势一方的利益予以适当照顾，两国关系能够避免大的冲突。这种工作模式下，双方有良好的沟通和稳定的互动预期，两国关系可预见性强，但缺乏平等性。

上述三种互动模式在中美关系发展的不同阶段均有所体现。在当前新形势下，中国应争取使“相互调适型”成为两国间互动的基本模式。特朗普执政有很多新特点，这对中方管理中美关系提出了新挑战。但与过去相比，今天的中国在处理对美关系方面拥有更多的资源、更加丰富的经验和更强的战略运筹能力。

要处理好特朗普执政时期的对美关系，首先要积极研究、接触和影响对方，争取中美关系较快和较为平稳的过渡，但也要根据中美之间“不打不相识”的情况，做好充分的斗争准备。特朗普政府对华政策尚在形成中，其出发点应该不是要搞坏中美关系，而是从中最大限度地谋取利益。但如果美方胃口太大，或处理双边关系方式不当，中方必须坚决回击，有理、有利、有节的斗争能够推动对方的政策调整。

在与美国新政府的关系步入正轨之后，还要注意在互动中不断引导对方。特朗普要“使美国再次伟大”，离不开和中国的经济合作，经济上的“互利共赢”是特朗普时期推动中美关系发展的重要抓手，在此基础上形成务实的合作伙伴关系是可以期待的。在此过程中，中方要积极提高中美关系的品质，使双边关系发展更好地体现“不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、互利共赢”原则，继续推进中美新型大国关系的构建。

来源：《环球时报》

The news that Chinese and US leaders may meet in April has attracted global attention. A new round of China-US contacts has actually begun since Trump assumed office. The phone conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping on Feb 10 marked the formal start of high-level bilateral communication in the Trump era. Following that, high-level contacts began both face-to-face and over the phone.

Still, we need to remain cool-headed over the challenges the Trump administration may bring about, and wait and see how things will actually evolve. First is the Trump team's attitude and approach to relations with China. The Trump team has taken a generally tough attitude when it comes to ties with China, and such an attitude has extended to economic and trade as well as geopolitical and ideological aspects, at different levels. Additionally, there are relatively more green hands in the Trump team who are just becoming familiar with their job functions, and they tend to ignore set rules and protocols. The tough attitude and behavioral changes may make two-way communication difficult in the early stage of the new administration, impeding the formulation of an efficient mode of operation between the two countries' diplomatic teams.

There are also the challenges in economy and trade. Implementation of Trump's economic policies will extensively impact the Chinese economy as well as China-US economic and trade ties. The economic stimulus program Trump proposes and the anticipated rate hikes will make the US dollar even stronger, increase pressure on the yuan to depreciate, and exacerbate capital flight from China. His policy to rejuvenate manufacturing will result in some American capital in China flowing back home. More important, the tough actions the Trump administration is anticipated to take on trade issues will intensify trade frictions, and have the potential to escalate into a trade war. In investment, Trump may also ask China to open further to American capital based on the principle of “mutual benefit”, and may threaten to restrain Chinese investment in the US. Intellectual property protection (including “online trade secret theft”) may also become Trump's excuse for pressuring China in economy and trade.

Finally, there are security challenges. Following the principle of “peace through strength”, the Trump administration is determined to increase input in national defense and upgrade US military capabilities, which may further enhance US military superiority over China, imposing greater military pressures on China in the Western Pacific. Meanwhile, the dominance of military hawks in the Trump team may lead to more aggressive moves in the South China Sea and worsen the China-US standoff there. Once a crisis occurs between China and the US (or China and Japan) in the East or South China Sea, the US side may take tough, radical actions and increase risks of military conflict. The Trump administration may take forceful actions against North Korea, which will also escalate friction between China and the US. Since the Trump administration pursues a policy of off-shore balancing against China in the Western Pacific, it will encourage Japan to develop military capabilities, and strengthen containment of China. Japan's right-wing conservative forces, with Shinzo Abe as their frontman, on the other hand, will take advantage of the opportunity to rapidly upgrade Japanese military prowess and enhance strategic containment of China in the region. That not only means China-Japan relations will remain chilly and in impasse, but also means higher risk of China-Japan maritime conflict.

Judging from past experiences, China-US interaction generally had three modes: First is mutual adaptation. China and the US engage in interaction in a prudent and pragmatic manner, either party may take the initiative in the process. They adapt to each other, make adjustments throughout, promote cooperation, avoid conflict, and formulate a benign mode of operation.

Second is conflict. Both sides stick to and proceed with a series of mutually contradictory policy goals, neither is willing to make necessary compromise and adjustment, in the belief that they can force the other to compromise or adjust, which result in constant conflicts. Unable and unwilling to conduct meaningful communication, coordinative behaviors between the parties mainly take the form of damage control in cases of conflict, a passive mode of operation.

Third is an active-passive mode – the stronger party dominates agenda-setting and the way of interaction in bilateral relationship, while the weaker, unwilling or unable to maneuver on equal footing, chooses to fulfill its own interest goals through gaming in the process of interaction. Since the stronger can display proper concern for the latter's interests, bilateral ties can avoid major conflicts. In this mode, the parties can communicate smoothly and share stable anticipations regarding mutual interaction. Bilateral relations are by and large predictable, but lack equity.

Under today's new conditions, China should strive to make “mutual adaptation” the basic mode of China-US interaction. The Trump administration's various new characteristics may come as fresh challenges for the Chinese side to manage bilateral ties. Yet compared with the past, present-day China has more resources, richer experiences, and stronger capabilities for strategic maneuvers in dealing with China-US relations.

For good relations in the Trump era, China should strive for faster, hassle-free transition into a new phase. But considering the past experience, that the two parties would not know each other well enough through sometimes less-than-friendly encounters, China must be prepared to face an uglier reality.However, the Trump administration's China policy is still in the works, and it is not to sabotage China-US relations. Instead, it may aim to extract maximum benefit from the relationship. However, if the US side asks for too much, or employs a wrong approach, China must fight back resolutely. Reasonable, calculated and restrained counter-moves may promote the other side to adjust its policies.

After its relations with the new administration embark on a normal track, the Chinese side should also try to continuously guide the other in interaction. In order to “make America great again”, Trump needs to collaborate with China economically. Economic mutual benefits and win-win cooperation are important drivers for good relations in the Trump era.

Source: Global Times.