杜特尔特上台100多天来，关于菲律宾对外关系说了很多话，其中涉及菲美关系、批评和指责美国的特别多。近来，他更是强调要停止联合巡航，取消菲美军演，摆脱对美国的过度依赖；不赞成与中国搞对抗，主张相关矛盾软着陆，同中国和俄罗斯搞贸易同盟，等等。这类言论国内外媒体有大量报道。

对杜特尔特这一系列言行，美日舆论导向十分明显，就是着重宣传杜特尔特这个人不靠谱，讲话没轻没重，是“无定向导弹”，变来变去，是同美国总统候选人特朗普一样的“大嘴”。这些议论，如果不是蓄意歪曲，起码也是对这位总统的误读和不敬。

其实，杜特尔特讲话有轻有重，是人们大体认同的“定向导弹”。显然，他是菲律宾优先的爱国者，外交大方向应该说还是比较明确的：他要奉行独立自主外交，他并不反美，但不喜欢美国干涉内政，对菲指手画脚，更不愿充当美国的马前卒，被玩弄于股掌之上；对中菲关系，他不愿搞对抗，希望软着陆（直接对话，和平解决分歧），发展友好合作关系。他反贩毒也是认真的，动真格的。他有时话说过了头，立即表示歉意，也是好样的！

这一切意味着什么？有人说，这是“杜特尔特现象”。看来是说到点子上了。“杜特尔特现象”看似偶然，在一定程度上实属必然，是美国决不做老二政策和老大作风催生的，也是时代变迁的产物，而且不是孤立现象。看看近来在土耳其发生的事情，再看看在沙特阿拉伯发生的事情，以及美国同这些国家关系的微妙变化和龃龉，大体也就比较清楚了。美国《纽约时报》10月10日一篇报道说的不无道理：菲律宾外交政策出现了真实而且可能是历史性的变化。美国《华盛顿邮报》近日也评论称，菲律宾的杜特尔特对美国构成“严重且无法预料的挑战”。澳大利亚一位学者认为，亚洲国家在中美之间现在感到“很纠结”，建议美国要吸取“杜特尔特现象”的教训。

“杜特尔特现象”看似偶然，在一定程度上实属必然，是美国决不做老二政策和老大作风催生的，也是时代变迁的产物，而且不是孤立现象。

“杜特尔特现象”，一般都认为是逆美国战略诉求而行的，不符合美国的心态，让美国感到心疼，难以容忍。但美国这次表现似乎比较聪明，没有与杜特尔特对着干，而是谨慎行事冷处理。美国领导人和高官一直在说，美菲长期同盟关系很牢固，等等。这葫芦里究竟卖的是什么药，只有美国心里清楚。有传说，美国可能要策划军事政变，或暗杀杜特尔特。杜特尔特对此似乎也有所准备。希望美国不至继续傻下去，而仅仅是人们根据历史上旧案例的误传。

杜特尔特对中国进行国事访问，是中菲关系的大事，有利于中菲关系恢复友好常态，携手合作前行，让两国关系更上一层楼，让有关矛盾软着陆，逐步解决。至于菲律宾同日本关系，日本和美国有些媒体宣传中国对此很是忧虑。居心何在，无需挑明。不过它们老是这样，难道不累吗？中国不是美国那样的老大，也不屑做什么老大，菲律宾发展同任何国家关系，只要是正常的，中国都会乐见其成。中国一向主张平等互利，合作共赢，互不干涉内政，尊重多样文明，谋求共同发展，各国都有权根据自己的国情，选择自己的外交和发展道路，对周边邻国尤其如此。这一点周边邻国普遍都有切身体会，杜特尔特心里也很清楚。他这次对中国进行国事访问，数百名企业家随行，绝非偶然。

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, just over 100 days into his presidency, has talked a lot about his foreign policy. Most of his talk has involved Philippine-US relations, and were critical of the United States. More recently, Duterte vowed to put an end to joint maritime patrols and military exercises with the US in the South China Sea, and to get rid of Philippines' over-dependence on its alliance with the US. He disapproves of confrontation with China and supports a soft landing or peaceful solutions to the thorny disputes between the two countries, and stands ready to form “trade alliances” with China and Russia. Chinese and foreign media all had extensive coverage about Duterte's remarks.

In reporting those remarks, US and Japanese media clearly tried to portray Duterte as a political figure who is not reliable, talking tactlessly, acting like an unguided missile, and as big-mouthed as US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Such descriptions of Duterte, if not evil-intended, are at least misunderstandings about or disrespect for the president.

In fact, Duterte knows well what he is talking about, and is generally recognized as a “guided missile” with a set direction. He apparently is a patriot who always gives top priority to the national interest. His diplomatic strategy is also clearly-defined: He pursues an independent foreign policy, he does not hate the US but dislikes US attempts to meddle into internal affairs or to tell the Philippines what to do, and he is not willing to act like a puppet for the US. On the China-Philippine relationship, he doesn't want confrontation, hopes to have a “soft landing” (engaging in direct talks and settling disputes peacefully), and wants to develop friendly and cooperative relations with China. He has launched a war on drugs and vowed to solve the serious drug problem in the Philippines. He is a man of responsibility.

Some have coined a phrase -- the “Duterte phenomenon” -- to describe him and the ways he talks and acts. The emergence of the “Duterte phenomenon” seems to be something accidental, but it is actually the natural outcome of changing times and the consequence of the US style of trying to command or have the final say in everything. By examining what was happening in Turkey and Saudi Arabia recently, and the changes in US relations with these countries, people would be able to understand why and how the changes in US-Philippine relations evolved. A New York Times report on Oct 10 correctly asid some real and probably historic changes have taken place in Philippines' foreign policy. A recent Washington Post op-ed said that Duterte poses “a major and unpredictable challenge” to the US. An Australian scholar also said the US should learn a lesson from the “Duterte phenomenon”.

The emergence of the “Duterte phenomenon” seems to be something accidental, but it is actually the natural outcome of changing times and the consequence of the US style of trying to command or have the final say in everything.

Generally speaking, the “Duterte phenomenon” runs against US strategy, doesn't conform to the American mindset and makes the US feel hurt. But the US has stayed smart and cautious in dealing with Duterte, and did not choose to confront him directly. US leaders and high-ranking officials all stressed that the longstanding US-Philippine alliance has been broad and stable. Why does the US act like this and what does it want to achieve? Only the US knows the answer. There have been speculations that the US was planning a military coup in the Philippines, or planning even to assassinate Duterte. But Duterte seems to have made full preparations for any outcomes. It is hoped that they were just speculations, because no one would believe that the US would be so foolish as to devise such plans.

The state visit to China by Duterte is an important event in China-Philippine relations, and will contribute to restoring the bilateral friendly relations to a new normal. With the visit, China and the Philippines will work together to elevate bilateral ties to a new high, and will seek a “soft landing” for disputes that allows the two sides to gradually solve them.As for the Philippine-Japan relationship, some Japanese and US media claimed that China is very much worried and concerned about it. People would naturally question the real motives behind such claims, because China is not, and has no intention to become, a hegemony power like the US. The Philippines could develop relations with any countries, and China will remain supportive if their relations are normal. China has always insisted on the principles of equality and mutual benefit, win-win cooperation, non-interference in internal affairs, respect for diverse culture and civilization, and common development, respect for each country having the right to choose its own foreign policy and development path. For the neighboring countries, these principles are particularly true and applicable. Leaders of China's neighbors, Duterte included, all have a clear and firsthand understanding about these principles. When Duterte pays his state visit to China, he brings several hundred businesspeople with him, and this shows the importance and hopes he attaches to the visit.