中日韩外长会议近日在东京举行。作为“三方外长会谈”自然有其自身的任务和使命，而由此形成的契机则在相当程度上为重新构建三国关系提供了条件。

8月24日，中日韩三国外长会议在东京举行。（选自：观察者网）

事实上，三方外长在东京会谈，不仅给韩日、中日外长会谈创造了机会，也给自民党干事长二阶俊博与中国外长王毅直接会面提供了顺理成章的机缘。

众所周知，二阶俊博既是日本自民党的党务领袖人物，精通国事选举和国会对策，曾辅佐小泉夺取“邮政大选”胜利，也支持安倍赢得近期的参院选举，过了“修宪门槛”。同时更因为其曾担任三届经产大臣，谙熟东亚地区合作的各种博弈关系，曾公开主张在地区整合上日本要从后台走上前台，不再容忍“东盟当头”，直接掌握“东亚共同体的主导权”。在日本政界，二阶俊博是毫不掩饰的“亲华派”，曾在2007年专程与时任驻日大使的王毅商谈重建“日中友好议员联盟”事宜，在涉华事务上表现出积极、友好态度。尤其是，在担任对华推销新干线项目牵头人期间，他在与时任中国国家发改委主任曾培炎会谈时，坦诚地说日本的新干线技术不过是在学习中国的过程中积累的一个闪光点而已，为支持中国经济发展，日本愿意“拿出一条给中国先用着”，并提供技术支持。这样的表态，可以说为中日高铁项目合作创造了友好的氛围。而前不久，面对日本官方和媒体炒作钓鱼岛附近海域中国渔船骤增问题时，二阶俊博作为新任干事长与驻日大使程永华会面，表达了与外务省不同的富有弹性的看法。这也为今天的中日关系走向缓和提供了不可多得的条件。

在日本政界，二阶俊博是毫不掩饰的“亲华派”。（二阶俊博资料图）

在安倍政权中，二阶俊博接替谷垣祯一出任自民党干事长，反映了安倍对其政策和威望的仰仗。他的东亚地区合作与整合政策，独特的对华政策思路与管道作用，都堪称安倍面对世界经济和日本经济低迷沉浮一筹莫展时的希望之光。

安倍是急于见到中国领导人的。一方面，他的“地球仪外交”和内政选举都取得了积极成果，需要在中国问题上画一个圆满句号。另一方面，在经济上，“安倍经济学”可谓山穷水尽，投资不增，消费停滞，出口负增长，金融抑制型日元贬值政策到了极限。而此前，安倍曾依赖的美国经济增速下滑，且面临加息的不确定性风险，日本对美扩张出口困难。尤其是，日美经济矛盾开始升温。年初以来，日美财长多次隔空吵嘴，日元美元汇率政策擦出火花。在欧洲方面，英国脱欧导致欧盟市场分裂，日本出口风险陡增。在亚洲，亚洲各国经济增速普遍停滞，出口占比接近60%的区内贸易缺少亮点。在这种情况下，中国市场再成日本经济走出谷底的唯一出路。

问题是，在历史、领土、海上安全、地区威胁认识以及地缘政治等问题上，安倍政权持续与中国作梗，使中日关系凸显一个“冷”字。虽然中日首脑已三次见面，但安倍并不珍惜，总是抱着“一事一办”的态度，凡事以己为中心，在经济与安全两条线上使中日关系悬在不确定之中。而今，安倍再次希望借G20峰会之际实现首脑会谈，是真实推进中日关系缓和，还是重演“一事一办”，这需要安倍认真对待。

9月5日，出席二十国集团领导人杭州峰会的日本首相安倍晋三在杭州举行新闻发布会。（选自：新华网）

这一次不再那么简单，多种地缘政治风险迫在眉睫，经济增长的不确定性也令日本经济充满风险。安倍要脚踏实地，认真环顾四海，审视周边，正确判断形势，严肃认真地与中国展开经济、安全两条线上的合作。如此，中日关系才能发挥有利于地区和平、稳定、发展的关键作用。

特别是，面对美国大选，作为安倍政权最大战略亮点的TPP直面夭折风险。而这并不是日本单方面努力就可以成功的。只要美国不认账，不能通过议会审议，那么TPP生效需要赞成国GDP占比达70%的条件就不能成立。如此就意味着其他所有国家的努力都是徒劳。安倍政权曾经为了追求TPP失去凝聚东亚、主导东亚共同体的机遇，如今能否重新回归中日韩合作道路，重构东亚共同体核心圈，堪称摆在日本面前的全球战略挑战。

从这个意义上看，安倍不仅须认真对待首脑会谈，更要认真对待中日韩首脑会议，脚踏实地推进自主经营的地区合作机制，为东亚、为日本经济发展创造机会。

Not long ago, China, Japan and the ROK finally got their foreign ministers together in Tokyo. The foreign ministers' meeting naturally had an important mission, and the opportunity it created may, to a considerable extent, reshape the relations among the three countries.

August 24,China, Japan and the ROK finally got their foreign ministers together in Tokyo.

The Tokyo event not only allowed the three foreign ministers to meet but also offered a convenient chance for Director-General Toshihiro Nikai of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party to meet face to face with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

It is well-known that Nikai has been an LDP leader, a big-time expert in the nation's business including political elections and parliamentary proceedings. He helped Junichiro Koizumi win his “postal elections” and Shinzo Abe cross the “constitutional threshold” in the recent Senate elections. Owing to his long-standing service as a cabinet minister, he is well-versed in the complex issues of regional cooperation in East Asia. As a strong advocate for Japan's dominance in the East Asian community and regional integration, he openly called Japan to move itself from backstage to the front and stop leaving “ASEAN in the driver's seat”. In domestic politics, Nikai made no attempt to hide his pro-China stance. It was he that worked with the then Chinese ambassador in Japan, Wang Yi, to re-establish the Japan-China league of friendly parliamentarians, and his general performance on China-related issues has been positive and friendly. In particular, when serving as Japan's chief representative to promote Shinkansen in China, he told then Chinese Minister of Development and Reform Zeng Peiyan that the Japanese bullet train's technology was nothing but a little bright spot in Japan's overall learning from China and that he would be more than happy to let China have a high-speed rail line first, complete with technology backup. It was such a supportive attitude that laid the groundwork for amicable China-Japan cooperation in the high-speed rail area. Not long ago, in the face of a joint official statement and media hype in Japan concerning a surge of Chinese fishing boats in Diaoyudao area, Nikai, in his new capacity as LDP director-general, met with Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua and the views he expressed were flexible, unlike those by Japan's Foreign Ministry. This has provided a valuable atmosphere for more relaxed bilateral relations.

In domestic politics, Nikai made no attempt to hide his pro-China stance.

Nikai's recent replacement of Tanigaki Junchi as LDP director-general reflects Mr. Abe's respect for his policy and prestige. In particular, his thoughts on East Asia cooperation and integration, his unique approach to China and his personal connections present some hopes for a stranded Mr. Abe confronting a sluggish global and domestic economy.

Mr. Abe is eager to meet Chinese leaders. On the one hand, he has basically succeeded in his “overlooking the globe” diplomacy and a series of domestic elections, and he needs to succeed also in his dealings with China. On the other hand, Mr. Abe is at the end of his “Abenomics” rope, with flattening investment, stagnant consumption, negative export growth and the yen's devaluation policy going nowhere. The US economy, now suffering a growth slowdown and facing the uncertain prospect of an interest-rate boost, has made increasing Japan exports to the US highly difficult. On top of that, the two countries seem to have been locked in heated economic bickering. Their finance ministers have exchanged harsh words quite a few times since the beginning of the year while clashing over differences of currency-exchange rate policies. In Europe, the Brexit controversy threatens a fragmented EU market, making it risky for Japan to increase exports there. In Asia, with growth in most countries grinding to a halt, Japan's exports within Asia– nearly 60% of its total regional trade – looks gloomy. Against such a backdrop, the China market stands out as the only way out for the sluggish Japanese economy.

Now, the problem seems quite clear. It is the Abe administration's sustained confrontational approach to China across the whole range of issues of history, territory, maritime security, regional security perception, geopolitics and others, sending China-Japan relations in a deep freeze.Though top leaders of the two countries have met three times already, Mr. Abe shows little enthusiasm. He seems to follow an issue-specific approach, always asking the other side to accept his agenda while leaving the important issues of economic and security cooperation dangling in uncertainty. With the G20 Hangzhou Summit just around the corner, Mr. Abe once again expresses hopes for meetings with Chinese leaders. Does he genuinely want to ease bilateral relations or does he just want to play his favorable “issue-specific” tricks again? This is something Mr. Abe must think through carefully.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attends a news conference on 5th Sep. in Hangzhou after the Hangzhou G20 summit.

Why? Things are not so simple this time. In addition to a large number of geopolitical imperatives, Japan's own economic future is at stake given serious widespread uncertainty about growth. Mr. Abe should take a sober look at the world as well as Japan's own neighborhood, make a sound judgment of the situation and act in a down-to-earth manner to seriously engage China for economic and security cooperation. Only in such way can Japan's relations with China play a decisive role of contributing to peace, stability and development of the region.

What is more, the coming US elections threaten to derail Mr. Abe's most strategic asset, TPP. Japan's efforts alone are not sufficient to save the project. If the US side cannot get it passed by Congress, then TPP will not fly, for it would fail to meet the required 70% of GDP of all consenting parties. This means that the other TPP members have just worked in vain. The Abe administration has wasted an opportunity of integrating East Asia and dominating the East Asia community by going all out for TPP. Now, Japan's global strategy faces a choice: Will it come back to the path of China-Japan-ROK cooperation and rebuild the core for the East Asia community?

In this sense, not only must Mr. Abe take his talks with Chinese leaders seriously, he must also treat the China-Japan-ROK leaders' meeting seriously, by solidly contributing to Asia-based mechanisms of regional cooperation and creating more opportunities for economic development in East Asia and Japan itself.